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Cellcom Israel Ltd. (NYSE:CEL)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call

March 07, 2012 09:00 AM ET

Executives

Porat Saar – CCG, Investor Relations

Nir Sztern – CEO

Yaacov Heen – CFO

Analysts

David Kaplan – Barclays Capital

Bill Rosenberg – RBC Capital Markets

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

Louie DiPalma – William Blair

Dan Howard – Deutsche Bank

Operator

Welcome to the Cellcom Israel Ltd Fourth quarter and Year End 2011 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to hand the call over to Ms. Porat Saar of CCG Investor Relations. Ms. Saar, would you like to begin.

Porat Saar

Thank you Rachel. I would like to welcome all of you to the conference call and thanks Cellcom Israel’s Management for hosting this call today. With us here are Mr. Nir Sztern, CEO and Mr. Yaacov Heen, CFO.

Mr. Sztern will open by providing a summary of the main highlight for the fourth quarter and full year 2011 results followed by Mr. Heen who will review Cellcom Israel’s financial performance in further detail. Before I turn the call over to Mr. Sztern I would like to remind everyone within this call management’s prepared remarks contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risk and uncertainties and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. Therefore the company claims protection of the Safe Harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995 and in this Israeli Securities Law of 1968.

Actual results may differ from those discussed today and therefore we refer you to a more detailed discusses today and therefore we refer you to a more detailed discussion as a risk and uncertainties in company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Including on the risk factors and the company’s annual reports for the year ended December 2011, 20-F files today with the FCC. In addition, any projections as to the company’s future performance represent management estimates as of today March 7, 2012.

Cellcom Israel seems to have obligation to update these projects in the future of market conditions change. You should by now received a copy of the company’s press release, if you have not yet received please call CCG Investor Relations at 1-646-233-2161.

I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Nir Sztern.

Nir Sztern

Thank you Porat. Good day everyone and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings conference call. This is my first conference call with Cellcom Israel as CEO. I am very happy to be here today and I want to thank you all for being on the call. As you know 2011 was a very challenging year for our company, our 2011 financial results reflected impact on the regulatory changes which caused a significant decrease in interconnections paid to us by local operators as well as the reduction in early termination fees.

This along with the resulting increase competitiveness in our market eroded our profitability and revenues. However, we are also seeing rise in our 3G subscriber base which is increased by almost 34% over the last year which is a positive indicator as we plan in the coming years to deepen our focus on cellular internet and data services as a key growth engine.

As a new CEO what is important to me at this stage is to look ahead in 2012 and see how we can not only weather all the new changes but also to come out evens stronger. Let start our overarching objective for the company is to move beyond just a cellular company and become a communications.

Based on this I have several key goals for 2012, first of which is to create deficiencies and such help us reduce calls. In recent weeks the company began to process a cost reduction in order to significantly lower its expenses. As an initial step we have taken efficiency measures following our merger with NetVision to integrate both companies’ headquarters and bring the NetVision headquarters employees over to our Cellcom offices in Netanya.

We are in a process of eliminating duplicate costs and positions and moving to an organizational structure which will maximize the mergers synergies.

We estimate that we will see the synergies of the merger both in terms of income and expenses during 2012 and the following year. Our second goal is to continue to create volume for our customers. On this front we are currently in the midst of upgrading our cellular network to support future data speeds of up to 84 megabits per second. Along with the development of our network we have shut down the old TDMA network and upgraded its active customers to our advanced network at no additional cost. As we mentioned before, our commitment to giving our customer the best customer experience in the cell market was recognized by our report previously published in 2011 from the Public Trust which is a non-profit organization which determined that Cellcom Israel is a company with the least number of customer complaints despite having the highest number of subscribers. Customer service is a key strength for the company as far (inaudible) and we will continue our efforts in giving our customers the best customer service we can including the vast devices and service packages.

Our third quarter 2012 is to continue focusing on key growth areas for the company. This means we will focus on improving our data services. As a result of this we will continue focusing on 3G customers while offering the best tablets and smartphones to our customers. This is a key growth area for our industry and we are focused on tapping into it and finding new opportunities. In order to achieve these goals we will need to leverage our talent and channel it into generating new ideas for growth and development.

We have in our management team today the best from both NetVision and Cellcom Israel so I believe we have the right people in place in order to successfully realize our objectives. With a focus on private and business customers and services that span both mobile and fixed line solutions we are looking for ways to grow our company so that we can meet and even anticipate the needs of our customers and the dynamic communication market.

In closing I want to thank our employees and management for their efforts in 2011, I'm confident in their capabilities and determination in leading the company to success. As always we are committed to continuing our efforts to the benefit of our customers, shareholders and dedicated employees.

With that I would like to turn the call over to our CFO, Mr. Yaacov Heen for a review of our financials.

Yaacov Heen

Thank you Nir and good day to all of you. Now on our financial results for 2011, we consolidated NetVision’s financial results for September 2011 and so NetVision’s fourth quarter results are fully consolidated. As we have noted we have taken steps to integrate the two companies and create efficiencies and we have spread of the cost savings potential of the NetVision to be affected in 2012.

Looking forward to 2012 we see the trend of revenue erosion continuing into the first quarter and we expect that shall it be positively compensated for by a decrease in operating expenses. Regarding NetVision, its contribution to revenues for the fourth quarter totaled 276 million shekels excluding intercompany revenues and it fourth quarter EBITDA contribution totaled 63 million shekels. We have updated the evaluation of NetVision and found that there is no need for impairment of the goodwill which was recognized following the acquisition of NetVision.

Now turning to our consolidated results. Revenue for 2011 totaled 6.51 billion shekels, decreasing by 2.2% but NV service revenue decreased by 18.8% totaling 4.76 billion shekels. Revenues from content and value added services increased by 4.9% making up about 26.4% of our services and revenues from equipment by 117.8% totaling 1.75 billion shekels.

Revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 0.2% totaling 1.67 billion shekels. Operating for the year decreased by 26.6% totaling about 1.42 billion shekels. For the fourth quarter operating income decreased by about 54.2% totaling 205 million shekels. In 2011 EBITDA decreased by 18.7% totaling 2.17 billion shekels and net income for 2011 decreased by about 36.1% totaling 825 million shekels.

Looking at our fourth quarter results they were impacted by three main factors. The first factor was seasonality, which had an adverse effect on the fourth quarter results compared with the third quarter due to seasonal decrease in inbound and outbound cost of tourism which caused a decrease in roaming service revenues. It was also effected in part by the occurrence of the Jewish holiday season in the fourth quarter which is factorized by reduced usage.

The second factor was a decrease in equipment sales compared with the previous quarter and finally there were one-time expenses as reported during the fourth quarter of 2011. These expenses are composed of a one-time provision in the amount of approximately 33 million shekels for deferred tax liabilities due to an increase in the core order tax rate for the coming year and one time provision in the amount of approximately 28 million shekels following a transaction decision against the company, a decision which the company appealed with the Supreme Court.

After determination of these one-time expenses EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2011 totaled 446 million shekels and net income totaled approximately 130 million shekels. Turning to our KPI, MOU for 2011 totaled 346 minutes compared to 335 minutes in 2010, an increase of 3.3%. For the fourth quarter MOU totaled 351 minutes, compared with 342 minutes in the same quarter last year, an increase of 2.6%.

ARPU for 2011 totaled 106 shekels compared with 143.8 shekels in 2010. ARPU for the fourth quarter 2011 totaled 95.4 shekels compared with 143.7 shekels in the same quarter last year. During 2011 we generated a free cash flow of 937 million shekels and 100 million shekels during the fourth quarter and we distributed the cash dividend for the fourth quarter of 2011 in the amount of approximately 72 million shekels representing approximately 95% of the fourth quarter net income and so our total dividend declared for 2011 amounted to approximately 0.8 billion shekels.

With that I would like to open the call to questions. Operator.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions). The first question is from David Kaplan of Barclays Capital. Please go ahead.

David Kaplan – Barclays Capital

I have three questions. One of them have to be subscriber and the second thing have to be (inaudible), just mentioned as far as pricing erosion in the first quarter of 2012. So if I start with subscribers, you wrote off 52,000 subscribers. So it’s 52,000 subscribers in the fourth quarter. Can you explain what that write off was about and why we do see in interim, how that plays out there? And then on the revenue side, Yaacov, you just mentioned that you expect to see further erosion in Q1 this year. Is that on a relative basis, the same rate of erosion that we saw in 2011 or at a slower pace? Those are my questions.

Yaacov Heen

So because we have done it at the end of December so usually we calculate the ARPU and the MOU according to the average number. So that’s why you cannot see. In fact even though you know everybody can calculate it because it’s 52,000 customers. If you want to divide it to 12 you can see that the impact is negligible but as I said, because it’s done at the end of December that’s why we didn’t recalculate the ARPU and MOU and about the second question, about the impact of, in the first quarter, as usual, for us it’s very important to say something about the price erosion.

We can say that it’s not the same ratio that we saw in the last year but we expect again, because of the impact in the fourth quarter is not there for the full quarter. So technically we can see in the first quarter the full impact which continues the price erosion of 2011 and as we said, we expect that with our measures regarding the cost structure we are going to compensate a significantly (inaudible).

Operator

The next question is from Mitchell (inaudible).

Unidentified Analyst

My name Dr. Mitchell (inaudible) and I am calling from Hollywood, Florida. I want to wish you a (inaudible). I have a fairly extensive holding in the company and right now I am looking at about 60% loss in my principal and needless to say I am not very happy about that. I have two questions, Mr. Sztern I know that you are new in the position so it may be difficult but the regulation from the government has been in the air for at least a year maybe two and my first question is why hasn’t the company been preemptive in terms of cost cutting knowing that there is going to be decline in revenues, there have to be based upon how the government wants to open up the cellular networks in Israel for increased competition. That’s number one and number two is do you see the dividend is being secure at this point and number three if you can look into your crystal ball where do you see the company if we are having this conversation next forum, where do you see the stock and a guess I can’t hold you to that. Thank you.

Nir Sztern

To answer your question, in terms of the preemptive cost cutting, it's a little bit difficult for me to answer the company’s policy in 2011. What I can do now is looking forward to more competition in 2012, what we are doing right now is exactly that.

We are cost cutting, also to compensate for the loss of revenues that came from the regulation in 2011 but also a notification for what’s coming in 2012. We saw throughout 2011 did a lot of cost cutting but as we mentioned before 2011 also saw an increase in competition and with that we have to increase the cost relative to the demand that occurred in the market in order to retain our subscriber base, so alongside ways a lot of cost cutting we had increase in expenses in order to maintain our market share and that’s why you can’t see the full impact of the cost cutting 2011.

Obviously for 2012 we are a doing a lot more in terms of cost cutting using the or leveraging the merger with NetVision to reunite the most significant cost cutting as we can.

To answer your, can you repeat the other two. The question will obviously it's a bit difficult for me to answer that, I can tell you that we are doing as I mentioned in my opening statement. We are doing a lot of cost cutting, we are focusing our revenue growth in terms of doing a lot in the data services, sending a lot more devices and getting a lot more customers using a smart phone, using tablets, using modems to get them to use our server network in the coming years.

We are in the network to give the best possible service that we can. Can you repeat the question on the dividend?

Yaacov Heen

Yes you see the dividend is being enrolled and again I realize that things have a way of changing certainly there is a lot of the potential political term loan in the area and whatever that may affect, it's the overall economy of Israel but be that as it may, do you see the dividend is being secured.

Nir Sztern

Just to remind, our dividend policy is connected almost 100% to our net income so we believe as we saw last year when the revenues and of course the net income is down like this quarter so the dividend is also down in the same ratio. So that’s why we would like to continue unless there is real dramatic change in the market in our resource but so far we can continue with our dividend policy because the same ratio that the net income is own is also with a dividend but we want to consider the debt level and our ability to continue with the dividend policy.

So that’s why for the moment we don’t expect a change and as you can see the Board of Director decided to continue with the current policy.

Operator

The next question is from Bill Rosenberg from RBC Capital Markets.

Bill Rosenberg – RBC Capital Markets

Just one quick clarification and there again I understand net income but is the policy itself is unchanged also in 2012?

Nir Sztern

The dividend is not guaranteed and it's according to the decision of our Board of Directors. So, I would say that this is the best that I can tell you, you can say if we came to continue because we always consider both our shareholders and our debt holders and if we can continue with these policy, we are going to continue with that.

Bill Rosenberg – RBC Capital Markets

Okay thanks and I was wondering on seasonality, what seasonality do you see going into 2012 with all the changes in the market due to more normalized seasonality in 3Q and 2Q or do you think that the market changes are sort of growing up.

Nir Sztern

With the same seasonality usually the fourth quarter is the weakest quarter in the year, you know unfortunately if you are talking about three years ago and three years ago, because of the growth, the internal growth we can compensate on the seasonality but this quarter we have both the price evaluation and the seasonality so that’s why we have emphasized, we emprise the industry are and also in our conversation.

Bill Rosenberg – RBC Capital Markets

One last question if I can make, in that 2012 I was wondering if you see the equipment sales continuing very strong.

Nir Sztern

You know the equipment sales in on hand it's increased the EBITDA but we would prefer to focus more on our service revenues and I cannot tell you about the levels because we try to reduce this, it depends on the competition environment. As we have mentioned our focus is the EBITDA and we are very happy with opportunity that now (inaudible) is available also in Israel we served it at the end of 2012 and we believe that we can continue with that and even increases during 2012. You know when you look at the global market this is a trend and we believe that it should be the same in Israel. So the impact of that of course is has to sales also.

Operator

The next question is from Maura Shaughnessy of MFS Investment Management. Please go ahead.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

Couple of questions; is there any update as to the timing of the high commission ruling at a commission?

Nir Sztern

No unfortunately there is no news from the Secretary of (inaudible) we know that they are looking into we have seen few developments recently and especially that were targeted into the limelight, our recent development is that the amount of make, that was just recently published but in terms of the high committee there is no (inaudible).

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

Okay but waiting for the deal in this one, as an expression goes. Can you be a little bit more specific on the cost side? Your margins have been crushed over the last year. The question has already been asked why didn’t you do this sooner but I am not going to ask that again. Can you be more specific and quantity what you're going to do on the cost side?

Nir Sztern

Well obviously I can't quantify it unfortunately but I can tell you a little bit of what we are doing right now. As I said we're trying first of all to leverage the energy with NetVision and doing a lot of cost cutting there. What we're doing is we're seeing where our duplicate costs are, whether they are in terms of personnel or rent or buildings or even the headquarters of NetVision that has moved into Netanya also in terms of the systems and infrastructure where we're looking into everything that the two companies did and what we're doing is we're cutting the duplicates and that's the one thing that we're doing and we've seen that there are lot of duplicates that it can be significant of cost cutting.

Besides that we're looking into everything the company is doing and we are trying to streamline all the business processes. We're looking into everything we're doing and whether there are places that we can cut that will not significantly harm our business but can improve our cost cutting. So we're doing that and we've been doing that for the last two or three months and will start seeing the results of the cost cutting in 2012.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

So what does that mean? Does that mean in the second half of 2012? The issue with NetVision, you should be able to quantify that. That's an isolated issue in some regard. So what is the timing of that?

Nir Sztern

So we'll start seeing the effect of the cost cutting immediately in the first half of 2012. We said that we expected from the beginning, of course the impact will be higher in the second quarter and third quarter because a part of the labor cost is just in the middle of the quarter but about the cost reduction, this time we have used the cost of the, especially in the headquarter and we didn’t touch the cost of the service because we believe that we should keep our level of service in a very high level, especially with, before the competition.

So last year because of the increase of the competition we have a lot of expenses regarding the customer service and that's why even though we are just cost in the head quarter we couldn’t really slow it because comparing to what we have to add to the customer service it was almost insignificant and this year we can see that we stabilized the level of service and now it's the right time to reduce and to take advantage of the (inaudible) and to reduce the duplication and also to increase our efficiency. So to address your point it's going to be in the first quarter.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

Okay. Can you just give an outlook for the interest cost expectations for the year? Obviously your debt has gone up a bit here and just your expectations there, what your cost of debt is now and et cetera?

Nir Sztern

You mean the financial expenses?

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

Yes.

Nir Sztern

This is of course because our debt level is in the highest or that's why the total financial expenses was high. If you take roughly the growth that and you multiply by between 6 to 7% which is a number that represents the financial expenses for full year.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

And what was your average cost of debt in 2011?

Nir Sztern

It was about 5.5% to 6% because in the fourth quarter in Israel we saw deflation so that's why it was benefit but usually it was more than 6%.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

And what's the expectation for inflation in Israel this year?

Nir Sztern

At the beginning of the year it was about 2-2.2% and right now it's close to 2.5%.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

And what percent of your debt now is inflation rate?

Nir Sztern

It's about two third of it. Two third of it is 70%. Its CPR link and the other part is nominal.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

Okay. And in terms of charges that were taken in the fourth quarter. Is there a chance that the class action, the 28 million being reversed, anytime soon?

Nir Sztern

According to our analysis, we believe that yes, but that is a decision we have to accrue that accrued that immediately and the processes in Israel are not so fast so I cannot say that we expect it in the first half of 2012 even all the year. So it's something that it's not in our hand.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

And the tax rate expectations for '12 versus '11?

Nir Sztern

25%, so it's an increase of 1%. This is right now the lowest we didn’t expect any change in that.

Maura Shaughnessy – MFS Investment Management

And in terms of what you're seeing actually out there for MBNOs and the impact on the marketplace in some of the new competition that eventually will get there. Any news on that front?

Nir Sztern

Well we see one MBNO occurring in the market levy and we know of others that are planning. We don't know when do to our planning to launch and obviously to new EMTS operator also I have no idea when they are launching. But we'll see the new competition coming in 2012 definitely.

Operator

The next question is from James Breen of William Blair. Please go ahead.

Louie DiPalma – William Blair

It appears that you are upgrading your existing 3G network, the HSPA+ at 84 megabit per second instead of taking the alternative route with LTE. Can you talk about the CapEx projections for the HSPA+ upgrade?

Nir Sztern

First of all we are doing two things while we are upgrading the network, first of all we're rolling out the 850 megahertz frequency for the country which will improve our in building coverage and upscale a better customer experience to our subscriber base. By doing that we are achieving two things. We are improving the network coverage, we're also upgrading to the (inaudible) and the roll off of the network is what we call MPE ready which means that if and when frequencies will be allocated or when we decide to go into the LTE, we'll be in a good position to roll out quickly an LTE network.

Louie DiPalma – William Blair

Okay and do you think Cellcom will be able to roll out LTE before its competitor, especially given the fact that the Apple iPhone 5 is rumored to have LTE and the iPhone is a significant product portfolio.

Nir Sztern

We're watching closely to see how LTE is developing both in terms of handset manufacturers. We're looking forward to tonight's announcement to see where everyone's going with LTE. We're also looking forward to what's going on here in terms of regulation and so on. We haven't decided up yet and if we will then we'll definitely tell you about it.

Operator

(Operator Instructions). The next question is from Dan Howard at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Dan Howard – Deutsche Bank

Couple of questions. Firstly, could you just clarify a comment that you're trying to reducing equipment revenue, why that should be the case and secondly how is the gross margin on those equipment revenues in the fourth quarter.

Nir Sztern

Last year was a totally different year. Usually we like very much to upgrade the customers with an advanced handset because they increase first the experience and the data usage and of course the Apple but last year because of the competitive environment, so we saw that we upgrade the customers, in one pay for the handset more and we get less from the customers. So that's why we have to do it very carefully and we believe handset sales itself this is not our purpose. Our purpose is to sell to our customers and to give them the best offer that we can by offering them the best handset with reasonable price and the main Apple version mainly came because of this rebate that we have to give the customer back the handset price during the 36 installment. So that's why I am not saying this is our main purpose. We continue with our strategy to analyze the upgrade and the new sales for the customer that we believe we can keep or upgrade revenues from those customers and as I said before, the main opportunity is coming from a totally new devices and opportunity connected to the tablet and since we started this, we can see that the positive reaction from our customers and of course in Israel that the coverage itself is very good, so we can take advantage of retail offer and new opportunity to our customers regarding that when the new tablet that came relatively to the world, lately to Israel.

Dan Howard – Deutsche Bank

And in terms of the gross margin on the equipment in Q4?

Nir Sztern

As to the sales of the 25%, 26% its surplus of the year.

Dan Howard – Deutsche Bank

And then just one more question, when you look at the combination on the one hand is the climbing ARPU and then on the other hand obviously the NetVision merger which brings in more revenues on a consolidated basis for the full year of 2012 when you compare it to the full year of 2011. Would you expect your top line to be up, flat or down?

Nir Sztern

We don't give guidance for the year, so we gave…

Dan Howard – Deutsche Bank

That's very broad.

Nir Sztern

I know. But you know, I have to be this year, because of the two new competitors, everybody has this assumption, so we believe that we have to be conservative and give you the best we can. Really at the value added information and not to say that we expect the same topline or less because again the impact of these two new competitors everybody has is assumptions and usually we don't give guidance about the revenue.

Operator

The next question is a follow up question from David Kaplan of Barclays Capital. Please go ahead.

David Kaplan – Barclays Capital

Yes, if I can just quickly follow up to go to the another question about the discoveries on later asked about your network and your upgrade. Can you talk a little bit about actually all this network, the CDMA network, is that still been running. Has that probably been shut down and have any subscribers then were written off now from the CDMA networks?

Nir Sztern

Yes, as we mentioned in the PR statement, we've shut down the CDMA network at the end of 2011 and actually saw the subscriber that we've eliminated our CDMA subscribers that did no migrate to CDMA network.

David Kaplan – Barclays Capital

Okay, so was there any accelerated depreciation related to that or has that already been accounted for?

Nir Sztern

No, we don't expect any other impacts. All of the impact was already in the fourth quarter. We try of course very hard to encourage those customers to the new network. The depreciation is 100% already depreciated in the last year. You have to remember that this network was alive more than we expected before.

David Kaplan – Barclays Capital

And I guess just one question, could you help me understand the delta was still on at CDMA network which is hard to actually believe that they were still there. Where did they go, if you were ever able to move them over as they prevent that they went to different networks.

Nir Sztern

Again, those customers want new front of course we gave them and take advantage of every contact with those customers during the last two years to offer them the new answers and the customers who are all biggest users or they didn’t want to transcend, finally we have to probably central because we need to expect them also.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Sztern, would you like to make the concluding statements?

Nir Sztern

Yes, thank you. Again, I want to thank everybody for joining Cellcom Israel's fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings conference call. I look forward to hosting you again at our next call. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the Cellcom Israel LTD fourth quarter and year end 2011 results conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may go ahead and disconnect.

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