ClickSoftware Technologies: Excitement Stems From Buyout Rumors

It's easy to see why so many readers are interested in ClickSoftware Technologies (CKSW). The chart is a thing of beauty, breaking out last month over long-term resistance around 4. Perhaps it's a bit extended now, and maybe it will pull back to the breakout point. The breakout, though, appears real. I expect that the former resistance level will prove to be support in the future.

Buyout rumors prompted the breakout. The company’s latest proxy asks shareholders to allow mergers to be approved by a simple majority vote rather than the 75% currently required. The amendment suggests that management wants the flexibility to shop the company around.

While shares are by no means a screaming value, the company is in a promising sector — employee/resource management and telelocation software — and has recently announced the positive launch of its latest ClickLocate software for Canada natural gas distributor Gaz Metro.

Bottom line: ClickSoftware announces earnings this week. Expectations are high, and I suspect that the stock may fade after they are announced. If ClickSoftware retreats to around 4-4.50 and holds support at that level, I may be a buyer.

Update: A reader asked why I didn’t include my usual fundamental analysis in this post. The reason is simple: I don’t think that fundamentals are driving this stock. The company is mildly profitable and has moderately positive news flow. The excitement in the stock appears to be coming from buyout rumors and the technical breakout. Therefore, if I trade it at all, I will do so from a technical basis.

CKSW 1-yr chart

Disclosure: No position.