Heavy Debt Obscuring Hanes' True Earnings Power 6 comments
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Here are a few things to keep in mind with Hanes.
Two major players, Hanesbrands (HBI) and Fruit of the Loom (a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary), control most of the U.S. underwear market.
Hanes considers itself to be in the "apparel essentials" business which is to say the "t-shirts, bras, panties, men's underwear, kids' underwear, socks, and hosiery" business. In 2005, the U.S. apparel essentials market was about $44 billion. Apparel essentials have been growing faster than the overall apparel industry – still this isn't a fast growing market. You're unlikely to see sales growth exceed 5%.
Hanes divides its business into four segments: Innerwear, Outerwear, Hosiery, and International. The company doesn't do much international business. Hosiery is a dying business with good margins. It generates cash; but, it's going the way of the Dodo – fast.
That leaves innerwear and outerwear. Together these two segments account for something like 85% of Hanes sales.
Innerwear is underwear – and yes, it's just as profitable by any other name. This segment is the heart of the company. It generates more than $2.5 billion in sales and plenty of free cash flow. Apparently, you can achieve low double-digit profit margins in this segment, which is impressive given the volume involved.
The innerwear business is a ridiculously high volume business. Looking at it solely in dollar terms doesn't make that clear enough. So, let me give you some unit numbers.
Hanes manufactures and sells a billion socks a year – literally. That's 500 million pairs of socks a year. Even the T-shirt business is high volume; Hanes produces about 400 million T-shirts a year.
The company's biggest customers have high volume needs. Wal-Mart (WMT) accounts for nearly 30% of the company's sales. Does Wal-Mart have leverage over Hanes? Maybe. Does Wal-Mart have many other options? No. Hanes supplies them with well over $1 billion in product each year. It's a cheap product that can only be produced in such volumes at competitive prices by a few companies on the planet. In the U.S., your choices are basically Hanes or Fruit of the Loom.
Furthermore, customers don't contract this stuff. They simply buy what they need. The excess inventory costs on these high volume products could easily eliminate all the profit for any company that isn't accustomed to producing on this scale. Hanes averaged total inventory reserves of just under $100 million a year over the last three years. That's the cost of guaranteeing you have enough product to meet your customers needs.
Hanes employs a lot of people – and the workforce isn't particularly cheap considering how cheap the product is to produce. Before the spin-off, Hanes employed close to 50,000 people worldwide. The vast majority of the company's employees were located outside the U.S.; however, the vast majority of the company's labor costs came from inside the U.S.
Using American labor to produce underwear isn't particularly economical. Since the spin-off the company has clearly been moving to reduce costs. This means closing plants and firing people. I expect the company will have to engage in a fair amount of globe hopping just to keep moving jobs further down the global wage scale as wages in some of these countries may grow fast enough to threaten price competitiveness. Of course, competitors are in the same boat. Absent prohibitive tariffs, each of the players in the industry should end up about where they started – though much of their current workforce will end up jobless.
Hanes has reduced its total sales in an attempt to eliminate some low margin product. Currently, sales are around $4.5 billion. The company hopes to use that number as the base to maintain and eventually grow. However, growth will be slow. Around the time of the spin-off, the company's "growth goals" set the bar at sales growth of 1-3%.
Hanes is highly leveraged (both financially and operationally), so single-digit sales growth can produce double-digit EPS growth – for a time. Again, this isn't a high growth business. In the long-run, it's a slow growth business.
The best margins are in the innerwear business. That's also the area where Hanes has its most important competitive advantages. However, the outwear business isn't a bad business and there's probably more growth potential there.
I'd like to see Hanes focus more on innerwear than I expect them to. However, management may surprise me. They didn't set particularly aggressive sales growth goals, which is a good sign, because chasing growth would lead the company away from its competitive strengths – which happen to be in a highly-profitable business.
Hanes wasn't a good fit at Sara Lee (SLE). This isn't a small business. It's a big business with a couple good brands and one terrific brand (Hanes). Hopefully, the brand will get more attention now than it did under Sara Lee. We've already seen some evidence of that.
Long-term I hope to see Hanes grow international innerwear sales. However, underwear is a very personal thing; you need to build up familiarity over time – it isn't an area where buying habits change rapidly or where there's a lot of comparison shopping – so, it's a hard market to break into. But, with a lot of time and a little skill, there is the potential for growth in the international segment. But, I wouldn't count on any such growth when valuing the business.
Overall, I like Hanes today much the same way I liked Energizer Holdings in early 2006.
This is a good business with a lot of debt and a lot of temporary, transitional stuff obscuring the company's true earnings power. Look at the company's record under Sara Lee, the information filed since the spin-off, etc. and try to come up with some reasonable EBIT estimates. Then, work back from there to get to a share price 3-5 years out.
With some good capital allocation decisions (or rather without some bad capital allocation decisions) the stock should perform nicely over that timeframe (3-5 years) without requiring any miracles from the business.
HBI 1-yr chart:

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HBI's Champion/9 series is doing well at TGT too and the company is also getting into other store fronts (Family Dollar).
The reason I love this co is that irrespective of economic conditions, I expect this to be a top line inflation grower (3-5%) per year but it has some real value drivers in operationionally and financially. They have a lot of non-cash restructuring costs that are being recognized reducing GAAP income, they are offshoring as much labor as they can, they are addressing pension issues and were able to reduce about $70MM in healthcare related costs.
As for financially, this business cranks out about $500MM in EBITDA per year so leverage for a high brand, stable business is perfect to me. CapEx will be about $90MM per year so you're left with $410MM in cash flow to work with in terms of working capital and paying taxes. THat still leaves a lot of dry powder to delever and reduce interest expense.
The "risk" is market confusion and execution risk. There's going to be about $250MM in restructuring costs (total) over the next 3 years but we don't know how much will show up in each year so god forbid an analyst covering it has a lower number for a particular quarter resulting in EPS higher than what comes in on a GAAP basis and the stock can take a hit. Also, HBI's switch to a calendar year end will make prior year comps difficult and their exitign as you mentioned from certain lower margin businesses will curtail revenue growht, also making prior year comps confusion. If you can wait it out 2-4 years this will prob be an amazing stock. As for execution risk, obviously having 5.0x debt/EBITDA makes execution of the co's strategic plans important, one minor mistake in this capital structure could be much more significant. However, I feel having Noll and Lee have the RSU's and options at $19 or so keeps them pretty focused on making sure things go smoothly. The comp awards were set pretty fairly in my opinion.
The objective of our walkout towards consists of you it's to inform you of a position criticizes that we lived in Haiti, we the workers victims of the CD APPAREL S.A since May 4, 2007 this is that: FRANTZ PILORGE [owner of the cd apparel] of complicity with the private sector Haiti, the middle class haitian and the leaders of hanes [HBI] do all to maintain the workers in discrimination and the misery after the brutal closing and illegal of the plant CD APPAREL by Hanes without previous notice, refuse of us damage and repair. Of more FRANTZ PILORGE informed the workers than Hanes does not want to pay the workers by motive of racial discrimination and the color question, and course the workers are black haitian of more, he says, that to every closing of a plant, the persons in charge of Hanes do themselves always the duty of damage and pay charge to all of employees according to the requirement of the social international legislation of the work and the CODE OF CONDUCT from Hanes Therefore, PILORGE says if Hanes does not want repair the workers of cd apparel in Haiti this is a crime against humanity and a flagrant violation of the right of the workers. For more of informations, we invite yourself to click on these links. We are at sonapi, parc industial # 31. in here the address of our lawyer/ attorney : 509/34297129; 509/37548022; 22133089.We already get informed all People in the World by that means: The Trade Union Organisation , the ResponsiBles of Human Right ,the Social Group and the Lawer's Men, if the Leaders of Saralee / Hanesbrands [Hbi] could take an other way different than the only one to damage the poor Haitian Workers to take note against them and sentence that nasty action against the protection and the Right of the Workers in the World . In sum Pilorge and Reginald Baker note for example Hanes pays charges and damage the employees of D.R, Puerto Rico; Mexico; Canada and the U.S.A Plant for what according to him Hanes refuse to dame the workers of CD APPAREL S.A [HG] for this : The responsibles of human right and the lawer’s men must demand to the responsibles of Hanes to pay the workers after 4 years of excellent works for the company Hanes !!! HE TERMINATES BY TELLING THAT THE LEADERS OF HANESBRANDS EXPLOIT THE POORS HAITIANS WORKERS [SAYS FRANTZ PILORGE ]
WE, THE EMPLOYEES OF CD APPAREL IN HAITI AT SONAPI INDUSTRIAL PARC # 31 LET SHOW TO ALL OVER IN THE WORLD : THE LOGO, CARTON , MOON WORKS FOR THE COMPANY SARALEE/ HANESBRANDS [HBI] AFTER 4 YEARS OF EXCELLENT JOB FOR THEM . THEY REFUSE TO REPAIR US AS THE COMPANY HAS BEEN ALREADY DOING IT FOR ANY PLANT THAT SHE CLOSES IN ANY COUNTRY.SINCE MAI 4 2007 , FRANTZ PILORGE USED THE WORKERS VERY BADLY WITHOUT MONEY AND SAYS TO HANES THAT HE GET PAID FULL COMPENSATION HE LIES ! HE LIES ! HE LIES ! IT'S FOR SO THAT WE INVITE THE RESPONSIBLES OF HUMAN RIGHTS TO COME IN HAITI TO DO THE LIGHT ON THIS CRISIS !!! AS PILORGE SAYS THAT HE IS WILLING TO FORGE THE RESPONSIBLES OF HANES TO DAMAGE THE WORKERS BECAUSE THE WAY FROM HANES TO CLOSE CD APPAREL [HG] HAS BEEN BRUTAL AND ILLEGAL BUT THEY REFUSE TO DO IT AS RICHARD NOLL AND GERALD EVANS GET DONE IT FOR EACH PLANT CLOSED IN ANY COUNTRY . FOR THAT PILORGE FRANTZ PUSH THE WORKERS TO FIGHT HANES UNTIL THE VICTORY CAUSE THE ACT OF HANES IS A DISCRIMATION AND CRIMINAL !!! GOD BLESSES THE WORKERS IN THE WORLD ! ... WE KEEP SINCE 4 MAI 2007 : 6 CONTENERS OF FINISHED GOOD, LOGO OF HANES, 2 CONTENERS CARTONS, 480.000 PIECES T- SHIRTS, MACHINES WITHOUT FORGETING MOON WORK LOTS IN DEVIATION FOR SARALEE !!! YOU HAVE TO KNOW THAT FRANTZ PILORGE LET US UNDERSTAND WHAT ALL OF YOU ARE MERCHANT CRIMINAL MAKING DISCRIMINATION AGAINST HAITI'S WORKERS SO, HE GET WILLING TO DEMAND YOU PAYING THE WORKERS BUT YOU REFUSE .BY THIS ACT HE CONSIDERS THAT IS VERY ABUSING AGAINST THE RIGHT AND PROTECTION OF THE WORKERS CAUSE THEY'RE EXPLOITING THE POOR HAITIANS WORKERS !!! DO NOT FORGET THE BRANDS AND STYLE OF T-SHIRTS THAT WE KEEP[BY HAITIAN LAW] FOR HANES [HBI] ARE : PRINTABLES, CASUAL WEAR, 5250, 5280, SM80, 5170. UNTIL WE GET DAMAGE AND REPAIRS ON HANESBRANDS !!! GOD BLESSES THE WORKERS IN THE WORLD !
By the presente, we, the workers victims of the CD Apparel in Haiti want to attract the attention of the public opinion nationnal and international that the company Hanesbrands inc. (Hbi) is liveliness of itself in a manner disnonest defend when she declare that the work which is done in Haiti through internet by the workers is a companion of denigrement and of slander. By there, Hanes wants to hide the truth and destroy the light on the bad situation of the workers of the CD Apparel that itself caused for the decision to close in a manner brutal and illegal the CDApparel (HG) was taken by the persons in charge of Hanes May 4 2007 since this day more one than 500 workers are on the paved having Heavy responsibilities a lot money for bank and children to send to the school. They want to be damaged as all the others plants. We want sharply that the defenders of the human rights and the representants of the union organizations as well as the bosses of Hanes send their delegations in Haiti to CD Apparel s.a, Industrial Park (SONAPI) #31 in order to meet the workers for their information and to do the light on the question because carries it workers remained opened to all negotiation...
Greetings to all !!! 2-To the attention of the persons in charge of the company HANES Brands.
that already does more than four month than the workers have in their possession close to 480.000 T shirt without counting the materials and incidental such as: boxes, cartons, labels, machine etc; on which these is carried the logo of your company and with these logo one all can do without forgetting some lots of work which have been put in deviation. The haitian social legislation in his item gives legal provision to the workers to seize the goods, furnish and buildings while awaiting that the parties find a compromise that their permit of resolve the conflict. The code of conduct and the social legislation american done obligations to the company Hanes to compensate the workers of CD APPAREL as this some is the case for: Puerto Rico, Mexico, Canada, U.S.A and the last one in dates the Dominican republic. This is in this perspective that the workers victims of all the abuses ask Mr. Richard Noll Gérald Evens, E. The Wyatts etc of well to want to take conscience while returning in contact with their lawyer or the workers themselves for a modus operandi in order strength liberer the merchandise. So, the safe, fast and reliable way à be one, it's à get the workers because they leave opened their door for Hanes. Distinguished greetings. Me Jorice Orémil Lawyer of the workers of CD APPAREL in Haiti !!! 3-Responsibles of the Hanes brands,
The comitee of workers of CD Apparel, at building #31, parc industrial (sonapi) HAITI joins their lawer, Jorice Oremil to greet the differences national organization and international for their help and to their enterprise fight by the said workers realize to damages.
Note that the boss of CD Apparel Frantz Pilorge came in Haiti after some meetings with the leaders responsible of Hanes and he has made the workers know that the bosses of Hanes,such as : Richard noll, Gerald evens,Micheal Jordand ………
Are vampires who don’t cease to exploit the workers around the word.
Speaking of Haiti he make understand that the Haitians workers are victims of racial discrimination. This enterprise “CD Apparel” has been congratulated by the same leaders for its efficiency and it’s products without any others .
The Haitians bosses put themselves to the bosses of Hanes side to exploit more the poor Haitian workers .
Lots of companies around the wold have been compensated with discussion such as:
Dominican Republic :3millions dollars us
Porto-Rico =$18.000000 US
Mexico :=$ 27.000000US
Canada : big millions
USA : big millions
And Haitians workers suffer until now and the workers of this company are left to their own devices.
These workers can’t send their children to school , pay the rent not to say sanitary cares about fity thousand (50000) workers arrange themselves already for a strike which aims at two objectives:
1-Ask Hanes Brands to compensate the workers of CD Apparel
2-Ask the Haitian parliamentaries to note the law on minimum wage.
We, workers of the cd apparel let us learn that some bosses of the company Hanes Brands such as: Richard Noll, Gerard Evens, Jorge Oliva from WRAP and others ally themselves with the haitians employers to know: the Bakers, the Apaids, and Richard Coles to prevent to the employees of CD Apparel to obtain their damages and repairs as Hanes does it always for the others plants.For your information, we say that :
Haitian government for the coming days will arrest certain other bosses for corruption and contreband , after the brandt , the Boulos , it will be the Baker’s and Richard Coles, the Apaid’s , Madsen, Acra, Meuz turn . This is the reason we want to ask the persons in charge of hanes to divorce with these employers in order not to to be considered as accomplice in the file of the workers of cd apparel because the state haitian [René Preval] will follow: authors and accomplices in this so national one as international file if hanes refuses, she will be considered as social danger for all the workers of the entire world.
We are waiting fo Hanes investigation in Haiti to release this crisis.
We write the American congress to take action to close the Hanes enterprises.
The workers of CD Apparel have been waiting and expecting that the leaders of Hanes will not shut the door in their face and will satisfy the workes
By the presente, we want to attract the attention of the national opinion and international, the representants of the trade union organizations, the defenders of the human rights, the organizations of women for the respect and the protection of the workers, representants on the democratic party, the representants on the democratic party, the black cocus and inform all of an improper and mean position that we are liveliness to undergo in Haiti to The people party being part of the middle class haitian and private haitian sector without forgetting verbal threats on our persons through cell phone that they are in the process of utter to our place. We know very clearly that Mr. Frantz J. Pilorge being, owner of Cd Apparel S.a and principal contractor of the company Saralee/ Hanesbrands[Hbi] has, of by his certification of recognition legale obtained from the international organization "WRAP APPAREL" the full permission and guarantee to seize the law and the justice regarding to seal the materials and equipments of Hanesbrands[Inc] regarding to demand "justice and repair" for the 500 employees victims at the time of the improper and nasty resiliation of Cd Apparel S.a by the leaders of Hanes on May 4 2007. This is for that that we warn yourself of all eventual maneuver that he would have plotted with the complicity of Mr. Richard Coles, Mr. Andy Jr. Apaid, Jn Paul Faubert and Mr. Sassine against the right of the victims that claim: justice and repair for price of the 4 years of misery, of injustice, of exploitation and of discrimination that they returned to the company Hanes [inc]. To the look of the law and justice only Frantz Pilorge [owner and direct contractor] is able and get full access to undertake walk and step with the national and international instances and ask Hanes to pay the employees and to allow the workers to unlock the merchandise of saralee / Hanes .For the direct implication of all other sector in the matter would be qualified flagrant offence[ infraction] which is strictly punished by the law and justice [penal].. Only Frantz pilorge can deliver the secrets of Cd Apparel [his enterprise] and allow all intervention inside of the building # 31. For, the workers understand the game and keep to explain to Mr. Pilorge all bad action in the matter he will be responsible and then the employees will take action against all the complicity !!! "Justice and respect of the rights of all the workers of the entire world!!!
THE CD APPAREL'S WORKERS IN AT SONAPI INDUSTRIAL PARK BUILDING # 31 ON TOUSSAINT LOUVERTURE AVENUE DECIDE TO ATTRACT THE NATIONAL OPINION AND INTERNATIONAL ABOUT THE NASTY RESILIATION AND THE BRUTAL CLOSURE OF OUR PLANT ON MAI,4,2007 BY THE LEADERS OF SARALEE/ HANESBRANDS COMPANY SUCH AS :RICHARD A. NOLL;E.LEE WYATT.JR;DALES W. BOYLE;WILLIAM J. NICTAKIS;JOIA M. JOHNSON;GERALD W.EVANS,JR.;MICHAEL FLATOW;KEVIN D. HALL WHERE 500 POOR WORKERS ARE ON THE COBBLED WITHOUT MONEY; HOME; GETTING A LOT MONEY FOR BANK AND CHILDREN TO SEND TO SCHOOL AFTER THE HARD CROSSING OF HURRICANE " GUSTAV AND IKE. AND NOW THEY REFUSE TO COMPENSATE AND REPAIR US AS THE OTHERS PLANT IN THE OTHERS COUNTRY. THE POOR HAITIAN WORKERS PUT A QUESTION TO : THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY; THE TRADE UNION RESPONSIBLES AND THE DEFENDERS OF HUMAN RIGHTS TO PAY THEIR ATTENTION TO DEMAND BY ACT TO THE PERSON IN CHARGE OF HANES [INC] TO LISTEN TO THE REASON TO PAY THE WORKERS CAUSE ALL AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE ALWAYS BEEN WORKING FOR PEACE;JUSTICE;SECURITY AND RESPECT OF HUMAN RIGHTS BECAUSE THE AMERICAN ELECTIONS ARE COMING SOON AND THE WORKERS ARE WILLING TO UNLOCK THIS CRISIS AND SHIP THE 480.000 PIECES OF T-SHIRTS AND MATERIALS WHICH HAVE BEEN SEAL BY THE LAW AND JUSTICE. NOTE THAT THE LABORS HAVE BEEN COMPENSATED BY THE SAYING OF : CODE OF CONDUCT AND THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL LEGISLATION CONCERN WORK BECAUSE OF FRANTZ J. PILORGE IS OWNER OF CD APPAREL S.A AND THE DIRECT CONTRACTOR OF THE COMPANY HANESBRANDS[HBI] BY HIS WRAP CERTIFICATION NUMBER 5382!!!
2- By the presents, we,the committee guiding of the workers of Cd Apparel S.A [ 500 ]size to Sonapi, Industrial Park Building # 31 are anxious to inform the national public opinion and international,the responsible of the human rights, the trade union organizations for the threats and intimidation that we are undergoing from Frantz Joseph Pilorge as well as the people of his class that is to say the middle haitian class and Private haitian sector because of we're claiming "justice and repair " for price of the 4 years of suffering,of
discrimination and of injustice furnished to Cd Apparel S.a . Some we could arrive from poorly and blow up our life, the first responsible person to question this is Frantz Joseph Pilorge [owner of Cd Apparel S.a and principal contractor of Hanes[INC] next: Coles Richard, Andy Apaid Junior, Jn Paul Faubert Sassine and the Baker's all are contractors of the company Hanesbrands[HBI] that want to do us be quiet so that the light is not done on this file of 500 victims!!!
3- Por los presentes, nosotros, el comité que indica de los trabajadores de Cd Apparel S.a [ 500 ] el tamaño a Sonapi, la Zona Industrial que Construye # 31 están ansiosos por informar la opinión pública nacional e internacional, el responsable de los derechos humanos, las organizaciones del sindicato para las amenazas y la intimidación que experimentamos de Frantz Joseph Pilorge así como las personas de su clase es decir el haitiano mediano Y el sector haitiano Privado a causa de reclama "la justicia y la reparación" para el precio de los 4 años del sufrimiento, de la discriminación y de la injusticia amueblada al Cd Apparel. Algún podríamos llegar de mal y el golpe arriba nuestra vida, la primera persona responsable preguntar esto es Frantz Joseph Pilorge [propietario de la factoria Cd Apparel S.a
y principal contratista de Hanes [ INC ] próximo: ¡ Coles Richard, Andy Apaid Junior , Jn Paul Faubert Sassine y los Baker todo son contratistas de la compañía Hanesbrands [HBI] eso quiere hacernos somos callado para que la luz no sea hecha en este archivo de 500 víctimas!!!