Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish

The model we use for intermediate trading signals has shifted from neutral to bullish. Our regular readers know that we are reporting these results on a weekly basis to coincide with our vote in the TickerSense blogger sentiment poll. Many of the participants hide their votes. One can readily see by subtracting the revealed votes from the total, that most hidden votes have been regularly bearish.

While in "neutral" since our June 29th announcement, we missed a 2% gain in the S&P and 3.3% in the Nasdaq and the Dow.

The intermediate signal does not reflect our long-term view of the fundamentals (still bullish), but it influences our management of partnership accounts. While the model has done very well in the past, things may always change. The reports are for informational purposes, not intended as a trading recommendation.

For a more complete explanation, check out our June article.

There have been a few emails expressing interest in Vince's model and where we use it. We are considering publishing (on a slightly delayed basis) some of the ETF forecasts as well as a more complete discussion of Vince, his background, and the basis for the model. This will take some work, but we may go ahead if there is sufficient interest.

Comments

[NutritionFacts:]

Hmm. Unfortunate timing, one might say. Still, I'm sure many would be interested in any further elaboration on your model. Thanks.

2007 Jul 24 05:58 PM

[David44:]

I would definitely be interested in more details about the basis for the model.

2007 Jul 24 07:01 PM

[buysider:]

I also would be interested in any further explication of Vince's model and related strategy

thanks

2007 Jul 24 10:14 PM

[Jeff Miller:]

If you check out recent posts at the blog, oldprof.typepad.com/a_.../ , you will see a further explication of the TCA model that we use for this.

Thanks,

Jeff

2007 Aug 03 12:20 AM