Cramer's Mad Money - I Thought You Were Dead, Mel (3/8/12)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday March 8.

CEO Interview: Mel Karmazin, SiriusXM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI). Other stock mentioned: Pandora (NYSE:P)

SiriusXM Radio (SIRI) has pulled back from the brink and has gotten its groove back. The stock has risen 35% in the last few months, but had a near death experience in 2008, when it was rescued by outside investment. The company has seen an extraordinary run. When asked the secret ingredient behind SIRI's recovery, CEO Mel Karmazin said, "Cash flow is the only metric that creates wealth" since it enables stock buybacks, acquisitions and clean balance sheets. Before the acquisition of XM Satellite Radio, SIRI had negative cash flow, and now it has more than a billion in cash flow with 20.0 million subscribers. When asked about competitors like Pandora (P), Karmazin said he is concerned about companies whose main source of revenues is from advertising, while SIRI has a more stable subscriber-based business model. The company has been able to succeed in spite of price increases, thanks to its 75% growth in cash flow; "We are the number one radio company in the world," said Karmazin, who expects growth to continue with the buildout in autos.

Referring to the terrible decline in SIRI a few years ago, Cramer said, "I thought you were dead, Mel."

"Yes," Karmazin responded, "In all honesty, it hurt."

However, Cramer said investors can expect huge successes in SIRI going forward.

Navistar (NYSE:NAV), Cypress (NASDAQ:CY), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Exxon (NYSE:XOM)

The market reacts when good things happen; the Dow climbed 71 points on the fact that the major macro fears have been checked:

1. There seems to be a solution to Greece, with Germany stepping in at the last minute.

2. Emerging markets have been sagging, but Brazil announced an interest rate cut. Cramer expects a possible cut from China in the next few days.

3. The domestic economy is experiencing a recovery, which should be helped by what is expected to be a positive employment number. The Fed doesn't seem to be willing to raise rates, given the threat to the economy of rising gas prices. On this news, retailers, banks and homebuilders "roared back to life."

4. There was a solid industrial production number from Germany.

5. Obama's statement that Iran will not be allowed to build a nuclear weapon shows hope that there will be negotiations rather than an all-out war between Israel and Iran.

Stocks still have a few headaches. Navistar (NAV) reported a shockingly low number. Cypress Semiconductor's (CY) lackluster earnings were backed up by bad news from Texas Instruments (TXN) and Altera (ALTR). Merck (MRK) gave a shockingly poor pre-announcement. However, there are many signs of hope. Cramer recommended investors stay cautious, sell gains in winners, get rid of non-performing stocks, but to stay in the game.

Cramer took some calls:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) should see some upside from a new CEO, but Cramer wants to see if the company actually performs before buying the stock.

Exxon (XOM) is not a growth company, it overpaid for its natural gas acquisition of XTO Energy, and needs to prove itself before it can be said to have momentum.

CEO Interview: Charif Souki, Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT:LNG)

The U.S. has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. Cheniere Energy (LNG) has been capitalizing on this trend by transforming natural gas import facilities into export facilities. It has one export facility in Louisiana expected to be operational by 2015 and one in Texas, by 2017. The stock has doubled since it was at the $8 level where Cramer got behind it last June. Cramer thinks the stock might have more room to run, especially with an investment from Blackstone. CEO Charif Souki says the storage is 60% full, but what needs to ramp up is demand. He expects demand to increase from overseas and from the buildout in natural gas engines in the U.S.

The End of the Rental REIT Bull Market: Apartment Investment & Management Company (NYSE:AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR)

Rental REITs like Apartment Investment & Management Company (AIV), Equity Residential (EQR) saw a huge run in the wake of the housing bust, since many who couldn't afford to buy rented. However, data from the housing industry shows that now it is much cheaper to buy than rent, and Cramer would get out of rental REITs. AIV has run 392% in 3 years and yields just 2.9%. EQR has run 292% and has a dividend of merely 2.2%. Cramer thinks these rental REITS have already had their day in the sun.

Why Best of Breed Matters: Cummins (NYSE:CMI)

Navistar (NAV) reported a very disappointing quarter, while Cummins blew out numbers a month ago. CMI benefits from global exposure and its foolproof engines. NAV, on the other hand, had a $2.19 share loss on recalls of bad brakes and poorly performing engines. CMI is the one to buy, but Cramer would wait since it has had a run-up and the Chinese economy might be slowing.


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