Some players may have noticed the new Trade Ideas feature in the TradeSensei platform. This is where you can submit a reason why you think a stock will go up (Long) or down (Short). If other players agree, they can take action by placing a trade in the direction you recommended... a much more powerful form of feedback than a simple Like button.
Here's how it works in action. I posted the following Long trade idea on Research In Motion (RIMM):
This is why I think RIMM is a really good buy right now:
2) RIMM actually makes money, unlike Nokia (NOK). Yet NOK is up 10% on the year while RIMM is flat.
3) Huge market share in emerging market countries. Blackberry still dominates in India and Indonesia. Why?
a. It's cheap;
b. Everyone uses Blackberry Messenger;
c. if you drop a Blackberry, it's basically indestructible. Believe me, I have dropped it many times.
4) Sticky corporate market. the Blackberry email service notwithstanding, people underestimate how much of a difference the tactile keyboard makes to old corporate fogies. Try typing a long email on an iPhone or iPad - it sucks.
In real life, I actually went out a bought a big chunk of RIMM stock in the mid-$14 area. Later, I noticed that another TradeSensei user countered with a Short trade idea on the stock:
I come from Indonesia (one of the biggest target markets for Blackberries). While it initially enjoyed over 80% market share here, and seemed to be immune to the iPhone and Android craze in early 2010, the state of blackberry is getting pretty dire nowadays.
My family bought the newer model (BB Touch2 and BB Bold with touch screen). It has battery problems (lasts barely a day) and OS problem (It hangs a lot! and by a lot i mean once per day! ), and many of their friends have the same complaint. Some even gave up and reverted back to the old models because they are much faster and more stable.
A lot my friends here are carrying iPhone BB or Android BB. They supplanted BB's bad browser with iPhone's and Android's browser. And there a lots of cheap, very very cheapmade-in-china-much-cheaper-than-BB Android (ones with a very shady brand and no reputation) going around in. Moreover, BBM is under assault by ... Facebook and Twitter and What's App ... yes it's very big here. Very few of my younger cousins around age 18-21 carries BB. Most uses FB and What's App in iPhones or Android. Most of ppl my age still carries BB though ... a clear indication of generation gap ...
This is a very worrying trend from my personal experience, watching the qualities of new Blackberries and its market share going down. What has unfolded in the US is unfolding here at a very fast rate. Forget about developing world: its rich people clamor for iPhone and the middle class go for Android while the working class go for cheap china-made Android. There is no place for BB in the younger generation.
This really made rethink my original thesis. Blackberry dominance in emerging markets was one of the main reasons why I thought RIMM is undervalued. But firsthand insight from someone in one of those markets is a lot more valuable than a research report from a Wall Street analyst. I agreed with the user and entered a Short position on RIMM.
In real life, I'm actually still long RIMM, but I'm not nearly as confident as I used to be. I continue to believe that the stock has been beaten down a bit too much given trailing fundamentals, but I'd probably cut my losses a lot earlier now.