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Executives

Bob Krysiak- EVP and General Manager

Analysts

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference February 14, 2012 2:20 PM ET

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Right. So in the interest of time maybe just kick off on STMicro. I'm Simon Schafer. I'm the covering analyst of ST in semi and Quadro. (inaudible) London and really great to have STMicro with us again, for a number of years. Bob Krysiak, EVP and General Manager of the U.S. for ST and then (inaudible), Investor Relations. Thanks so much guys for doing this again. Really appreciate it. And we'd heard from some of your competitors already, NXPTI at keynote. Broadcom as well talking about perhaps the stabilization in the underlying trends in the industry. Maybe to frame this debate, maybe just remind us as to what your own guidance is as to what you're seeing. I think Carlo Bozotti, your CEO talked about also some stabilization in the broader environment. Maybe give us your latest sense.

Bob Krysiak

Yes, I guess from an ST perspective, we see the market bottoming out. We don’t think things are going to get any worse for sure. The inventory situation in Q4 was high, particularly in the channel in Asia, U.S. and in Europe. I think it's gotten better. It will get better in Q1, not dramatically but better and we expect this to be the low point in the marketplace. I think in terms of production days in U.S. it will be a better situation for us in the channel. We expect to burn off more inventory than we certainly did in Q4, less vacations as I said to many analysts this morning and an improving situation from then on and our guidance was minus versus Q4, was minus 4 to minus 10. So obviously the normal decline I guess and Q1 is always the low point in the normal cycle anyway.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

I believe when you actually exclude some of the more problematic areas in the company ST-Ericson, you guys are basically suggesting that the first quarter is almost flat sequentially, almost down a touch.

Bob Krysiak

Absolutely.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

So when you think about that, the way you are seeing the stabilization is on the automotive and industrial side or is there any sort of product ramps happening in consumer electronics, maybe some differentiation as to what you're seeing in the different verticals.

Bob Krysiak

I think the last two years have been fantastic growth emerging across the globe and particularly for North America as well but we see that kind of stabilizing now. We don’t expect to have as good a year in automotive as we had previous two years but consumer products are getting better. Set top boxes improving for us. We expect to improve this year versus last year. The inventory situation was particularly bad so we think that's burned off. So hopefully orders are coming back. And in obviously the tablet smartphone market the non ST-Ericsson business, the wholly owned business we see it continue at a good pace, a very good pace. So this is MEMS power devices, protection devices, chargers and even discreet and that space is quite good.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

In essence if that's true you're basically saying look we had six months that was kind of drive by, destocking. That means we are followed by six months of restocking and then we go back to the same sort of run rate growth?

Bob Krysiak

Obviously 2010 was an exceptional as a rebound from 2009. First half of 2011 was also kind of false because of the Japan crisis and it was difficult to read and obviously the second half we suffered somewhat from clearly inventory. I think in the first half of this year, we expect it to be kind of slow, sequentially good, in the second half to improve but we don’t expect a big rebound that we saw in the pattern of 2009. We don’t expect that to happen. I think the market is subdued and flattish in the semiconductor market. Some markets will grow significantly and some others will be flattish in terms of our end markets.

Industrial sales is obviously kind of struggling because of the housing. It's so related to things like housing, lighting, industrial products and it started struggling. The rest, automotive will be flattish, will grow. The market will be flat, will grow, we expect to grow and gain share and I think as we said in consumer, set top box looks good, looks better and we have noted a number of new design wins this year with new products and the MEMS continues to grow at a fantastic pace.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Yes, let's talk about some of the growth elements in your business in a little bit more detail. Specifically MEMS, you've been successful in granting that almost $1 billion at some point, I guess this year in terms of revenue scale, really within a three year period and there is some change in the sense that competitor dynamics at some point may change. There are some new entrants that are trying to replicate some of the product portfolios and in some instances you guys invent it. So maybe talk just a little bit about the competitive environment in MEMS. It's a high growth market.

Bob Krysiak

Absolutely. It's a matter of time before other people will, it's too attractive for other people to ignore and I guess we face different competitors in different actual product areas if you like, in micro products which we are new to but we're getting some traction this year. We expect to do well against a major competitor and in Giroux this year of course we continue to grow. We faced probably one minor competitor that we see in the marketplace. We don’t see other entrants right now. We see obviously some guys who start in automotive typically, in accelerometers trying to enter the Giroux more complex but we don’t see them in consumer electronics truthfully and threatening our position. I think we see one guy who is threatening our position in Giroux is a reasonable competitor but again one of the strength of ST is speed of innovation in its particular area (inaudible) very fast and I think the capacity we've installed in terms of Blackberry high volume manufacturing for our major competitors. So one day you will hear an announcement from one company and another and packaging side, Giroux, the Giroux performance et cetera. This business is usual. We're not going to have the market to ourselves but we absolutely expect to retain the leadership to store. We're probably five times the nearest competitor in the Giroux space in terms of quarterly revenue and we're growing.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

But I guess in light of the growth and also in light of the fact that there are new entrants and as you said the pace of innovation if anything is accelerating. It's not slowing down. Can you see a change to the pricing dynamics more broadly?

Bob Krysiak

I think again the accelerometers certainly in the early days got commoditized to actually they were saying that there is normal rep. The $0.10 per excess syndrome can read into the marketplace. I think the key point to us is to continue to innovate and add values and systemize the product as we move from three axis, six axis, up to 10 axis and building something we call sensor fusion and a sensor (inaudible) product which is helping the OEM of the integration part. This is giving value and so obviously we're able to maintain pricing at a reasonable level. Of course if you just take a three axis product and you maintain that development or that product in the market for one or two years, you will end up with no margin definitely. So there is pressure on the margins for sure if you just don’t innovate the product but we continue to change the package type, the profile, the performance, the frequency. So lots of performance characteristics are changing every year and sometimes several times a year. So there is a lot of innovation that goes in these products.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Understood. And how about consumer electronics? Specifically in TV, there's lots of change in the landscape. Some of your competitors are trying to get out of that product category. You actually went down the route of firstly acquiring and then more recently you changed the architecture entirely and you're moving towards and arm based solution. But is that enough for you to get to the sort of margin levels that match your corporate average in consumer electronics?

Bob Krysiak

Yes, I think in set top box, if you take them out and we don’t publish them, they are out there, the margins are pretty good. In TV we don’t have any big market positions at the moment, except in the monetary space which are good, which is play for technologies and we won some major designs using the monitor scaling (ph) technology and display port technology which we haven’t published but we have made design wins and the pure TV play of course is bit more of a bloody market typically. Other people have decided to exit. What we've tried to do is to optimize the architectures that we have in set top and TV and share the architecture because it's been our belief that eventually TVs will obviously be the growth point for some set top box technology where we integrate it into TV and that's why we think it's an important market still but we'll see how it plays out. And so far we're not suffering because of margins per say. I think we are suffering because of R&D spending in the TV area as a business but of course that's relatively small compared to other areas which certainly is (inaudible).

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

And if I look it from a broader perceptive, is one of the solutions specifically in your TV business that, as you say, the R&D burden is high and the pace of innovation is equally high. We walked about it in MEMS but it is the same in television. Is one of the solutions just for final synergies with your mobile business? Is there more reception in….

Bob Krysiak

I think this has been the whole point of the conversions platforms inside ST is to do IP sharing across set top box TV and mobility and that's been the plan over the long term. Of course because of the market changes and customer dynamics it hasn’t been easy to manage given the top line situation regarding the mobile business in particular but what we in the TV area and set top box area communized the architecture and support specs. They now have the same specs, same software architecture. So we found real synergy. So we reduced the R&D burden.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

So let's say on the topic of mobile, ST-Ericsson has been a challenge for you. The funding position I guess I can't use the word precarious, you'll have to have a plan as to what happens sometimes in the middle of this year I would guess. So maybe just remind the audience as to what the latest plan is for ST-Ericsson at this point.

Bob Krysiak

Yes, I think it's well known that ST-Ericsson was a company that was formed from three in 2008 and of course it's probably of the best time to make an investment in a high demand area but we made it. It's the foundation of three companies. It's relatively new. It has the single product roadmap now in modems, for baseband, modems and smartphones and application processes. It's had that for the last two years which has been a common one taking the foundations of the three into one and now I think it's got a very attractive technology roadmap. I think it's been hit by two problems. One is kind of scheduled delays in these new products which I think is out there. People know that. And of course as it transitioned from its major customer particularly not the only customer but major customer, this major customer is to diversify the products into other customers. Samsung we already know and there were others it was working it. Of course the major customer which it depends on to some extent for a significant portion of revenue also has obviously lost ground in marketplace. I think in 2011 that was the biggest impact on ST-Ericsson was actually revenue that was missing from what was the expectation from obviously its biggest customer.

Now clearly the company is going through its strategic plan. The last week or two it's been having some internal meetings and board meeting with ST and it has to communicate that plan in the next period and I think just wait and see what the management comes up with. I can't speak for them but of course I think they need to address the situation themselves financially as well in terms of the market. What you know is every CEO you speak to and we meet CEOs who was on the (inaudible) saying people for different reasons are very attracted by the product. If the execution plans could be met the product they had, the product portfolio of (inaudible) is best in class on paper and now they're sampling in some cases of course. So they've got the right product strategy. I think they just need to execute on it and let's see what the new CEO is (inaudible) places beginning of December, what he comes up with in terms of what he wants to do in the next one or two years.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Does the decision making process in general becomes much more difficult given the 50-50 JV but as always you need agreement from the other shareholder Ericsson to sign up on SANs but do you see yourself in the driver's seat in that negotiation and that timeframe and in that roadmap or is really Ericsson that calls the shorts in there?

Bob Krysiak

No I think Ericsson is a fantastic investor and earner of lots of patents and obviously needs a good terminal partner to help validate it's network and it's relying on them to do that but I think in terms of the operational management of the companies, certainly ST is managing that for sure because it's the semiconductor expert. Our expertise what we have and so the management fees has a big say in terms of the R&D and design of silicon. Probably Ericsson is not a silent partner but that's the ST expertise. The system expertise is obviously coming from the market outside of the modem strategy and standards if you like or coming obviously from the near know how in the infrastructure market but in terms of running a semiconductor company I would say the ST has a much stronger retention (ph) rate. It's been Ericsson.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

But I guess what you're saying is the investor shouldn’t be presuming that we're going to find some sort of structural solution as in a sale or some sort of disposal of nature of this asset. The plan at this point is to come up with a structural solution, to have the recapitulation\ of the balance sheet and so forth.

Bob Krysiak

Yes, and I think the CEO's job, he's been tasked to do that. It was a recent board meeting a week or so ago and I think his task is to come up with the action plan to recover the situation. The companies are both committed to the business. I think they want to see it successful (inaudible) this big. There is only one dominant player right now and it's a shame to let them get away with the market. If we can do something about it as a semiconductor plan, it's what we'd like to do. They have the means, they have the knowhow. They have the market understanding. I think they just need to get the products out there.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Now let's just say you hear of the plan and you don’t like it ultimately what's the cutoff point and what are the parameters of the senior management team both ST-Ericsson of course, the shell that would ultimately force a decision. I guess from our perspective part of the difficulty has been created because there is a more of (inaudible) because of the, you have responding accessibility. JV is well funded through your balance sheet but it's Ericsson's balance which is bigger than yours. So when does that become more of a critical nature in terms of timing.

Bob Krysiak

Well I can't speak because I can't say what the board is thinking. Clearly I may know some of the information but I can't speak to it but certainly we're not going to stay there forever. It's basically obvious that we can't do that and the company to serve the quarter and start to gain traction in the market place and soft line. It's working on the bottom line. If you like the cost structure rather but you can only use that so often right and in the end it has to affect the sales. So I think fixing the sales is what he is tasked with and he's only been in place since in the beginning of December, Christmas in between. I know he didn't say Christmas. He worked. So in order to be there they're pushing hard to get the new products out. It's their preoccupation and their working with every customer you could image. They are not silently working in isolation. They are working every day, in Asia, in North America and with customers. So inevitably, I think the confidence that the management has about the customers say in the marketplace this year, I think it will give us some basically inflection point on what we do in the future as a company to see how much traction they face but I couldn’t put a date or it's like a guiding principal, a financial principal under which we will say enough is enough. Now certainly it's not going to go on forever for sure. I don’t know how the management patience is. There are some limits.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Understood. And how about your imaging business. The CMOS imaging business has sort of been peripheral actually so of course care for the custom and so on and had he asked people two years ago people would have said well this business is going to be loss making, probably an opportunity but in reality you have actually managed to turn it around plus while now above grade even understand. But it was under that business is that something that structurally belongs into ST or ultimately should it be part of ST Ericsson, how should we look at that from a strategic point of view.

Bob Krysiak

I think it's an important business. Of course a few years ago we were having our struggles mostly with the camera module business because camera module manufacturing is about purchasing plastics, about 70% of it. So the margins are low. Even though our gross margins in that business and the camera module business were higher than the competition, the competition was Taiwanese or Asian so difficult to bear. So we decided to take a strategic test, sit back for a while and decide what to do. We obviously engineered the company engineered the organization to be more efficient. It came up with some new products for sure. Sensors, they focused on sensors and video products and its diversifying those products for the markets as well as the warrants area. It's managed to do well financially in 2011 I think in terms of market attractiveness, the cell phone market; the smartphone market in particular is now more attractive than it was previously. It's not just based upon megapixels and a tick box but it has real features, real quality and therefore people are prepared to pay a little bit more for it than they used to be because it's more important to the user experience than it was previously and I think beyond 5 megapixel cameras which we are providing today in volume production, we need to go to eight, we need to go to 12, et cetera for high quality products in the cellphone market, in the smartphone market and I think we're investing in new technologies like BSI of course which we're working on for the new generation of cameras and again diversify. I will say one customer for sure and two other customers in the wireless business but also into other directions as well using the know imaging to make things like gestures and centers for things like gaming, tablets and smartphones beyond just capturing the image itself.

So a lot of, if you call adjacent applications in market using this technology which we're going to be deploying and you will hear about that in the press in the next year or two, some new products that would come up with quite innovative and the game, in the same space, smartphones and tablets but not pure image centers.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

So again when I think about it in terms of the overall portfolio at ST, it doesn’t sound that the CMOS image is really in terms of discussion for disposal. I think that was up for.

Bob Krysiak

It was a discussion?

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

But now you said it's a strategic part of the orientation (ph)?

Bob Krysiak

Absolutely. And I think the customers we speak to and the market we see are more attracted by having a major player of the consolidations could have taken place and I think what we're providing now, what people expect in the smartphone market and tablet market and especially things like Skype is very much different. So just a megapixel you must have. It has much more value. And so the company, I think we've managed to understand how to make money out of it which I think where we were struggling before. I think the key to that was the camera module business where I think again we are doing integration, a level of packaging where we weren’t getting the margin from it.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Understood. Well let's back go some of the, I guess in some ways more cyclically exposed business more broadly and they're very broad-based businesses especially in analogue. Talk to us a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of unit growth and value growth in automotive. That would be helpful.

Bob Krysiak

Well obviously we've had a great run for the last two years in automotive. We grew significantly more, more than 30% in 2010, 34%, 35% and in 2011 the growth was good, double digit. This year of course we expect it, clearly the market is maturing a little bit more and we've recovered a little bit of the peak of 2007 but we're not going to reach that peak for sure because the economic environment isn’t strong enough. What we see this year is China is slower than expected, lower than expected. We see north America flattish in terms of units, maybe $0.5 million price interaction more than last year. So we had a good run last year and the year before flattish. Europe is flattish, sluggish and we are expecting China to do better and Japan should do better, it should recover from last year from for. So the Japan tree in the marketplace and Japan generally should improve in automotive. So we see good signs. As ST itself, ST end market, ST itself will grow, will gain market share this year for sure.

And I guess obviously the pipeline of products started a few years ago and we know we products and which tier one suppliers that we're in and therefore we should go into production gear about the transition body, sensor body, safety and so. So we know where those products go and how they are going to be used and therefore we expect to grow market share this year. But again the market is more subdued this year than it was in the last two years.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Right, right. But in terms of European exposure, it doesn’t sound as if you had seen a material slow down because of whatever Southern peripheral exposure or….

Bob Krysiak

So I think Europe is a challenge for sure for consumers and consumption and it's probably going to be weaker of the markets for sure but I think north America will be flat and gain maybe 0.5 million cars or so, maybe 1 million in the end will grow, by 1 million units and I think so it will probably take 13 million, 13.5 million units this year versus the 16 million 17 million peak. Japan is coming back with what we see and I think that's important too and Korean car manufacturers are definitely taking market share in North America.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Let's talk about analog in a little bit more detail in terms of pricing. Again we've watched a number of your competitors this morning in sort of a same debate. The good news is that ST does have access to 300 millimeter capacity. So GI isn’t the only one who can be aggressive in terms of pricing but I guess the investor concern is still that as the larger balance really comes on, product becomes available that pricing very fundamentally sees a shift. So your views on that and how aggressive would ST be in utilizing that 300 millimeter capacity in terms of maintaining or gaining market share?

Bob Krysiak

Well of course we have a modest capacity in 12 inch and big capacity in 6 inch which we're converging to 8 inch at a reasonable cost, very high volume center in Singapore and that’s, our main objective is to obviously convert to as much as we possibly can to 6 inch capacity. We have 18,000 wafers a day in the same areas, to 8 inches as soon as we can because we think that's a huge scale. In regard to Crolles itself which is a down at just below 5,000 wafers per week capacity, using that for analogue products, imaging products, analogue products as well is our objective in the long run. Of course we have the option to do that and it does depend on how much demand there is in terms of the digital products.

Clearly the plan of the company is to outsource more than 60%, 66%, two thirds of the capacity of the company in digital C (inaudible) outside the company but retain some capacity mostly in Crolles I and Crolles II in digital products but eventually I think it's no doubt that we will move some RF technologies, some bi-CMOS technologies into the 12 inch domain as we quality the products and they will be available in obviously 8 inch and 12 inch.

But as clearly spends on other market goes, what the cost is all about. Analogue products don’t shrink very well. So they don’t shrink. They don’t follow More's (ph) rule. So inevitably we qualifying analogue products take a lot of time and they don’t get the shrinkage that you think. They just get the wafer scale benefit. So analogue devices that don’t follow More's little presence at all, the analog devices are really very difficult to shrink. So they don’t have the same dynamic as a logic device.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

But I guess you are also saying that in terms of the environment you haven’t really seen much of a change in terms pricing demand and analogue at this point?

Bob Krysiak

No, I think we're seeing the same situation where, let's call it the market demand is weaker, slightly weaker, although improving and therefore the pricing environment is kind of competitive. It's just as you'd expect. If you want the business maybe you have to drop your prices in some cases but we're not seeing a blood bath in terms of the pricing environment, not blood bath. The problem is in Q4 there was some products and if they were freely doing, demand was that bad in the beginning of Q4 in particular but it's an improving situation.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Yes, understood. And you referred to the broader plan that you are going to be outsourcing more your digital portion of product but ST clearly is one of the few companies globally that has continued to go down the route of having an integrated model and that's something that policy you've stuck and that part gets structural orientation, that works when you are fully utilized but of course as we saw in the back half of last year it's a lot tougher and when you look at your Q1 guidance, I think there is something like Four Points in your gross margin which I think is still being penalized because underutilization. So when you look at your plan for this year, when do these underutilization charges fade? What sort of utilization rate thresholds do we need to get to come back to being a (inaudible) corporation or gearing that people are expecting?

Bob Krysiak

Well clearly it is above 90%, midterm operated and getting close to 90% is fantastic and in Q4 we were around in the mid-60s. Now we're around mid-70s and we expect to be above 80% hopefully in Q2. So the remaining three quarters of the year, hopefully the situation will get better and of course we're torturing the sales force to fill those gaps as we speak, to make sure that we gain share during the typical plan and we don’t have empty fabs. That’s for sure. Some of the reasons for the utilization was obviously also related to the customer of ST-Ericsson having a different business model in 2011 and '12 than they expected and therefore things like protection devices and other devices which we expect to go that customer will no longer go there. So this is one of the reasons. It's just a question of the dynamic of some of our major wireless customers as well, obviously not meeting expectations is one the reasons some of relation (ph) costs. But we're redesigning those products in other areas for sure. So we're moving, diversifying again away from the big customer bases that we've had before.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Does that also mean that your CapEx profile is going to slow considerably? I think that's fiscal debate rather than a structural one but are you going to the point when you would actually cut some strategic investments in trying to manage your expansion or shrink or is it just a question of look we expand a product capacity level and therefore we have to slow that down or is there anything else to it?

Bob Krysiak

I think we got to digest what we spend and we spent $1.2 billion last year and of course objective is to be below 10% of sales and sales was inevitably so CapEx goes up. But I think we will significantly reduce capital investment this year. The one that we want to obviously maintain is in the area of men's expansion where if it needs it we will do. That's obvious and I think the other area is probably I guess we want to converge this 6 inch to 8 inch facility because we can do it very efficiently in low cost and low capital investment to get the benefit. It's huge. So I think if we can get done the better as well for the power devices and the analogue devices in Singapore.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Understood. And lastly from my side, I think one of the things that Carlo, your CFO is proud about, just (inaudible) I guess is that the dividend yield actually for ST is above certainly its average and so on. Is that maintainable even if you have a significant capital funding requirement for ST Ericsson?

Bob Krysiak

It's constantly under review but the intention of the management is to maintain it where it can. Of course it's impractical if there is a call on cash. For any other reason, an event occurs or whatever to keep the company viable is the first priority and I think there has been an occasion in 2009 where we obviously had to not do what we'd like to do which is not share the dividend as really expected. This year obviously it's up to the board to decide but there is no reason why we wouldn’t maintain it. We think it's an attractive feature of the company our stock prices are the best, the highest. We know why, what some of the causes that you guys price this that but we still maintain that we're a big cash generator. Obviously that will be improved if we didn’t have to spend as much on the ST Ericsson business but hopefully that will turn around and will improve and we'll see what the plan comes up with but intention of the management is that's an attractive feature. I think the CFO likes it; the CEO likes it, the Board like it. If we can maintain it it's practical and I'm sure they'll vote for again but no guarantees but hopefully that's the trend. This is a trend they like to keep.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Well that. I think with that we're actually out of time and ready for the next.

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