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QLogic Corporation (NASDAQ:QLGC)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

Feb 28, 2012 05:10 PM ET

Executives

Simon Biddiscombe - President and CEO

Jean Hu - CFO

Analysts

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Scott Schmitz - Morgan Stanley

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Good afternoon. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Technology Hardware Analyst and I'm very pleased to welcome Simon Biddiscombe, President and CEO and Jean Hu, CFO of QLogic. Scott Schmitz, who also works with me on all the storage names is also up on stage. Before we begin I just have to say that my personal holdings disclosure, the Morgan Stanley on the Morgan Stanley corporate website www.morganstanley.com\reseach disclosures. So that will come and thank you very much for your time.

Just to start, I want to talk about one of the recent announcements that you made to the best of the Infiniband assets. Can you talk about why you made that decision and what opportunities that makes to invest in other areas?

Simon Biddiscombe

Sure. So we started our investment in the Infiniband business back in the 2006 timeframe. We acquired both our host company and a switch company at that point in time and at point there was some expectation that Infiniband may have become a relevant data center network and technology that could potentially replace either fiber channel or Ethernet as a data center protocol of choice.

As time has passed that clearly hasn’t proven to be the case and the technology needs have evolved away from the core competencies that exist within QLogic and go to markets have evolved away from the core competencies that exist within QLogic. So if you go back to the infancy of the market, we were buying chips from Mellanox.

There were other participants in the market and it was expected that from a technology perspective we wouldn’t have to necessarily develop every chip ourselves and every system ourselves. We could rely on an ecosystem that would have partners who would leverage one another, clearly proved not to be the case over a number of years and the cost of investment became very high because of that and the market itself is somewhere riding $280 million in total. So it' been a very niche market in terms of size and QLogic's ability to participate in that niche has evolved away from the core competencies that we have.

So importantly as I look forward without the Infiniband business if I take December as an example, in December we posted 2% growth without the Infiniband that would have been 5% growth. If I look back over the last 11 quarters, in seven of the last 11 quarters we were a slower growing company because of Infiniband. If I look at the first nine months numbers, that was slower growing because of Infiniband so it's clearly had an impact on the growth of the company. It's had an impact on the gross margins. We'll be higher gross margin moving forward and that shows up in the guidance with higher operating margins moving forward and that shows up and we will obviously have a stronger balance sheet as a result of the cash infusion.

We continue to look at alternative ways to deploy the capital structure of the company and we've clearly over the course of 18 months now been talking about incremental opportunities that we perceive exist to invest organically in markets that are very adjacent to the markets the at QLogic serves today in high performance IO. So we will start talking about those in more detail as time passes but there is no doubt that the incremental ability to focus on the core data center networking capabilities that we are so familiar with to date and then the next set of adjacent opportunities is increased by the sale of the Infiniband business.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

A potential adjacency, the target I/O opportunity that's been talked about recently, at some point we have to exit that market. Can you talk about exactly what that technology or what that market is, how big the opportunity is that you are going after?

Simon Biddiscombe

It's probably one of the more profound changes that exist for ourselves and frankly for Emulex as the other participant in the traditional fiber channel market. So over a course of many, many years, north of a decade at this point in time, if you think about the front end of any storage array, the front end that looks back towards the network and ultimately back towards the server, that has been a market that was dominated by PMC Sierra and it actually goes back to an acquisition that PMC did many, many years ago.

They chose to stop investing in that technology at 8 gig and as it moves to 16 gig for fiber channel that's opened up that entire set of opportunities for both ourselves and the nearest traditional competitor and that market is somewhere between a $100 million and $120 million on an annual basis. I think we've done a very good job carving more than fair share of that market because the technology that we bring to the market is the only four protocol chip that’s available. So wither I sell it in the form of a chip or an adaptor to those customers, the fact that I can deliver you fiber channel, FCoE, iSCSI and Ethernet all on one chip is very attractive to the target guys because it essentially means they can deploy that array in any networked environment.

So I think as we look forward into the later part of this year and then into Calendar 2013 we're going to start to see a real benefit to our revenue streams associated with those target winds that we have secured over the course of the last year in reality.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

So you already have design wins in the markets. Your just turning it into revenue?

Simon Biddiscombe

Oh yes, absolutely, absolutely. If I look at the entire target market and I think about every storage array that exists, there very few who haven't chosen whether they’re going to deploy QLogic solution or an Emulex solution. Essentially everybody has decided at this point in time.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

And you feel like you will come out of the market later?

Simon Biddiscombe

I think we'll do because we have that technology differentiation associated with the four protocols which is so compelling, is the iSCSI that gives us the differentiation by the way. So that's currently in storage environments obviously, the nearest competitor does not have the ability to move the iSCSI traffic on that one chip. They still rely on the process of technology. So I think that has proven to be in storage environments and incredibly compelling value proposition to our customers.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Okay. Great. Just to ask a couple of tier level questions is the general tone from the storage and server OEMs at this conference is cautiously optimistic about demand this year though guidance is relatively conservative relative to the past few years. What's your view of growth in the server and storage market right here?

Simon Biddiscombe

So were not radically different than anybody else Katy. So we think servers are probably low single digits, somewhere up to 5% and storage market will be somewhere in the higher single digits, 5% to 10% essentially. I think from our company's perspective, the important part is product cycles as opposed to the underlying markets. So if you think about the fact that there has always been enormously high correlation between server unit shipments and QLogic's host revenues, I think as you look forward, regardless of whether host units are upper than 0% to 5% QLogic because of its incremental participation in 10 gig Ethernet based technologies and converged technologies should be in a position to deliver better than server revenues or better than server unit growth, let's say as we look forward over the next coming years because of the product cycles associated with those new markets.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

And when you think about some of the reasons that server growth is more muted, budget constraints and server virtualization and shift more Web 2.0 that doesn’t usually use a SAN architecture. But this year Romley has reversed the scene, service announced in the last couple of weeks from Dell and HP, do you think that's a catalyst that accelerates the server market?

Simon Biddiscombe

I'm not sure if catalyst accelerates the server market. I think you've got to look at absolute units on a year-to-year basis. I think only time will tell whether an end user chooses to buy a Romley based server or continues to by Nehalem based server which has a different value proposition associated with it and it's probably going to depend on precisely how pricing strategies are put in place by the server manufacturers themselves and the competitive dynamics between them.

Undoubtedly Romley will become the dominant technology over some number of years but I don’t think Romley itself necessarily causes the significant acceleration in server units this year, the way we saw Nehalem be the cause of a significant acceleration back in the 2009 timeframe. Back in 2009 you had had a vacuum in spend because of the tough macro environment and you had in Nehalem a significant step up in functionality associated with the process and capability.

As you move to Romley, you haven’t had that significant pause. I don’t think any of the OEMs think they saw a significant pause in demand for servers last quarter as people were waiting for Romley. So I think it's more of the same in terms of units and Romley's built into that. For us it's about the fact that we get to participate at a higher level because we have 10 gig solutions as well as fiber channel solutions.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

So your penetration rate or your ASP going into a server potentially goes up, a successful attack in the 10 gig market?

Simon Biddiscombe

It does, absolutely. The value we could extract from any individual server, assuming it as a combination of both fiber channel and Ethernet based technologies increases.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

And how big do you think the 10 gig market is and we're seeing servers based on Romley today. There will be more coming out through the remainder of the year. When do you think we hit the inflection point where 10 gig becomes a significant driver for us?

Simon Biddiscombe

Yes, so last year 10 gig was about a $400 million market and if you look at the adapter market we're number two. Intel is number one, we are number two and that's adapter dollars as measured by Dell'Oro and by Crehan Research. So we're the number two participant in the market. If you look back to the beginning to 2011 we weren’t the number two participant in the market, right. So we did a very good job throughout 2011 capturing market share in the 10 gig Ethernet adapter market and part of it is based on the value proposition of the solutions that we bring to market, part of it is based on our traditional OEM relationships.

Romley's inflection in that today you buy a server, it's really a 1 gig world. Tomorrow you buy a server, it's really a 10 gig world. So you will see an inflection. The thing I always caution people is if you would look back over recent server launches it's kind of a six month window from the very first server to the very last servers been in the market, from OEM to OEM and from platform to platform is a six month window. So you're going to see an incremental level of 10 gig participation in the market over the course of all of this calendar year and you may have to wait until December until everybody has got everything in the market the way we expected them to. Then it will be a question of to our extent, are end users buying Romley based solutions at the 10 gig versus Nehalem based solutions at a 1 gig.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

So you mentioned early on that historically the HBA business has been tied to server shipments. It sounds like as 10 gig becomes a bigger driver of the business, it's more of a secular trend of adopting and moving towards 10 gig that is an absolute (inaudible). On margins, the Ethernet business, in part because there is more competition is lower margin. How do you think about maneuvering through the growth opportunity and balancing with the lower margin.

Simon Biddiscombe

So my view of the world hasn’t changed. When I stood up and started laying out how the 10 gig Ethernet market could potentially impact the margin structure of QLogic 18 months ago I said we were going start at 66% margin and as 10 gig Ethernet became a bigger contributor to revenues I would roughly a point per year of margin erosion to the model. Last quarter we were at 67. We guided for 68 for the current period. So I still think as 10 gig Ethernet becomes a bigger participant in the business, there's a point of margin erosion per year but now we're just starting at a higher level than expected.

We're disciplined in how we run this business. We're going to be foolhardy and chase revenues for the sake of chasing revenues. Protecting the business model is something that important to us and delivering a high gross margin and delivering an operating margin that's in that 28% to 32% in the long term continues to be something that we think is important to shareholders.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

The competitive landscape in Ethernet is different than fiber channel. How do you think about being able to differentiate versus some big name like Intel and Zicom?

Simon Biddiscombe

It's interesting. If you go back six years, we just call that a $1 billion market opportunity. In terms of $1 billion it's called 10 Gig Ethernet, okay. I think as six years have passed we and all the other participants in the market have become much shrewder about what does that $1 billion opportunity look like from both a technology perspective and from a go to market perspective as well and where do we have the most compelling value proposition that will allow for success versus where do others have cost model for success.

So when we think about the total market at a $1 billion with roughly 35% to 40% of that number expected to be converged technologies, that reliance upon the fiber channel or Ethernet capability that you can only buy from ourselves or our nearest competitor, that's the area where we would perceive that we will enjoy the greatest success and if you look at our market share last year in that converged piece of the market, it's entirely consistent with the fiber channel market itself. So we're number one in the fiber channel market, 55% market share. We gained share yet again in the most recent year and in the fiber channel over Ethernet converged network adaptor market we have a very consistent market share. So that's squarely in the technology capabilities that QLogic would expect to win.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

And from a visibility standpoint, do you have a design win roadmap that also gives you visibility into six months or 12 months from now where you will sit in the 10 gig market?

Simon Biddiscombe

Oh so you're going to fast forward from generation to generation of server essentially. So everything that we are working on today is for the refresh of the Romley servers that comes with the Romley shrink that will occur at some point in Calendar year 2013. Anything that we're going to ship at Romley is business that we won in many instances back in late 2010 and expectation that Romley would start shipping in the second half of 2011.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

So visibility is high for this year.

Simon Biddiscombe

Yes.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

We talked several years about FCoE and there was a lot of hype and then not as much market creation versus what industry analysts expected. What's your view on where fiber channel over Ethernet sits in the market over time? Does it become a niche market or do you think it expands?

Simon Biddiscombe

No, I think we still have a belief system that says converged networks will be the most relevant technology within the data center for networking. So today it's still fiber channel networks and Ethernet networks and as an industry we shift more fiber channel last year than before. Fiber channel is going anywhere for some extended period of time but if you fast forward to 10 years from now, pick a timeframe, we believe there will be one network within the data center that will be a converged network and FCoE will be the protocol of choice to give you the performance characteristics that you need to run mission critical applications where storage availability is needed. You're right. It clearly hasn’t adopted at the rate that people expected it to.

Where it has adopted interestingly enough is in the adaptor market. So when you look at the rate of growth in adaptors in FCoE, that was way faster than the rate of growth of 10 gig E and the reason for that is that's actually a very logical place to deploy FCoE at the gate, okay. So you deploy the adaptor, it talks to a top-of-rack switch or a blade switch and then you're actually separating traffic between Ethernet and fiber channel networks. When that starts to converge onto one network is when you really start to see all of the benefits of convergence. Then you also need targets that are FCoE capable and you haven’t had a broad set of targets that are available for FCoE over the course of the last few years either. That starts to come as you move forward as well.

So our believe is in the technology. We still think it's the fastest growing part of the 10 Gig Ethernet market but there is still some things that need to happen within the fabric where QLogic does not participate to accelerate the overall market's growth rate.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

And as the 10 gig market evolves, as FCoE becomes larger, more relevant, do you expect consolidation in that side of the market similar to what we saw in HBAs over time?

Simon Biddiscombe

Actually don’t. I think it's just going to die. I don’t wish to be mean to the smaller companies but I think if you look at Intel and you look at Broadcom they've got everything they need. And if you look at QLogic and you look at Emulex, we've got everything we need from the technology perspective as well.

So anybody else who is serving that market is going to fall by the wayside and they typically brought products to market with solved four niche problems that end users had and their ability to sustain the level of investment that's necessary moving forward is going to be very difficult. So I don’t see consolidation being a big part of this. I think it's going to be the four of us. I think we've all got the right sets of technologies and everybody else would just get marginalized.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Sure. We talked about the server market expectations and the traditional HBA markets but there is a technology transition to 16 gig in the fiber channel HBA market. What do you think the timing of that looks like in the adoption curve and is there anything like Romley or SSDs that might accelerate that?

Simon Biddiscombe

SSDs is an interesting technology generally but doesn’t necessarily cause an acceleration in the 16 gig. Romley doesn’t necessarily cause an acceleration either. It's typically adaptor sales. Two fiber channel adaptor sales have always been completely disconnected from service cycles. You'd introduce an adaptor whenever you want and tune it. It wasn’t connected to an individual server cycle, given that it just sat in a PCI-E slot and you just introduced it whenever it was ready.

Research says that roughly 5% of ports this year will 16 gig. That makes sense to us. 16 gig today has a significant cost disadvantage versus 8 gig. Because of the cost of the optical modules they are significantly more expensive than 8 gig optical modules to the point where it almost makes 16 gig price (inaudible) at this point in time. I suspect some of the people we've talked about 16 gig shipments are actually selling 16 gig chassis with 8 gig connectivity associated with it.

So 16 gig will start later this year. It's 5% of the total market this year and I think we're going to be as well positioned as we always are with fiber channel, gained share last year, feeling good about the positions moving forward.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

And given the industry structure in HBA is that two large players. Should we think about the market as market share remains stable or did they push to market share?

Simon Biddiscombe

That never really changes very much right. If you look back over the course of the eight years that we've been the market leader it's within a point every year, roughly a point every year. Last year we gained less than a point of market share and the competitor gained a little more and we both gained at the expense of the third participant and fourth participant in the market, right. So it's a good market. People behave in disciplined ways in this market and I don’t see any significant change coming in 2012.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

There's about 10 minutes left. I'll let Scott ask a few questions and then we'll see if there are any from the audience

Scott Schmitz - Morgan Stanley

Sure I just had a couple questions, maybe on that particular margin profile. So you talked about selling the Infiniband business. That was a drag to your gross margins. You also talked about Ethernet as also a drag. So if you get rid of one of those it's still 1 point head win, year-over-year or does the benefit from the Ethernet.

Simon Biddiscombe

Yes, 1 point still feels like the right level of gross margin erosion that we would expect to see.

Scott Schmitz - Morgan Stanley

Okay. And would you be willing to sacrifice some gross margin? How do we think about the gross margin sacrifice to drive volume. In the end does it all balance out to the end in the same offering?

Simon Biddiscombe

It's all about dollars. It's all about participation in gross margin dollar, gross profit dollar pools, however you wish you characterize it and for us as we look at the existing business, as we look at the ability to expand into adjacent markets it's all about finding pools of gross margin that our significant return to shareholders.

Scott Schmitz - Morgan Stanley

And why do you believe the gross margin on the Ethernet side is so sustainable? Is it your knowledge of the storage stack that makes it more difficult for competitors to come in or what makes it so sustainable?

Simon Biddiscombe

So this 15 years with an investment in our fiber channel over Ethernet software capabilities. So we've seen others try to participate in the market over many years. It goes back to the infancy of the market as we suggested where there was a literally a dozen different fiber channel HBA participants, many of whom fell (inaudible) and then you look at recent participants who've tried to come to the market and they had all the right DNA to be successful right if you think about Brocade trying to become an adaptor company, all the right fiber channel and DNA to be successful and after four plus years of investment close to 0% market share. Why? Because you can't recreate what QLogic has done over the course of north of a decade that we've participated in fiber channel markets and that translates straight into the Fiber Channel over Ethernet market where we are able to extract a premium associated with the storage stack versus a pure Ethernet stack at that point in time. But when it comes to the pure Ethernet part of the market you're right Scott, that has a different margin profile and a different competitive dynamic than the Fiber Channel over Ethernet part of the line.

Scott Schmitz - Morgan Stanley

Okay. I just have one more on kind of capital structure and we'll see if there is any in the audience but following your Infiniband sale, I think your balance sheet will have roughly $500 million of cash. Can you just talk about your optimal capital structure and then your priorities for the use of cash as far as buybacks, internal investments, acquisitions?

Jean Hu

Yes, so from a capital allocation perspective our first priorities always is that either organic investment or MA activity. We certainly are looking for opportunities to continue to grow the business but we are very disciplined. On the MA side we certainly need to find the right opportunity. If we don’t find those and certainly we have been returning cash to shareholders through buy backs. We'll continue to do that. We'll evaluate. It's a lot of cash when I think about it. We had the $400 million at the end of last quarter plus $100 million, $105 million cash. It's a lot. So we will think about that capital allocation strategy but overall it's still two priorities, right. Investment the first and the return to the shareholders with the backup.

Scott Schmitz - Morgan Stanley

When we look at our universe I think some of the dividend paying stocks have actually outperformed. Is there a discussion in your board about potentially initiating a dividend?

Jean Hu

We always think about it but if you look at our cash, a large portion of cash actually is off shore. And when you think about the cash at the end of last quarter 80% is offshore. So there is a significant constraint as far how you use cash to buy back stock, I'll pay you dividend. Those cash has to be on short cash. We have a strong commitment in 3D. There are some limitations.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Sure. Let's see if there any questions in the audience.

Unidentified Analyst

How much cash are you generating overseas every year versus domestic. If you just say ballpark you're going to do $150 million of free cash flow every year, how much that is in U.S.?

Jean Hu

About 75% is offshore physically. So if you look at our tax rate it's about 80% and that really on different locations offshore and on shore business generation.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Simon you had mentioned in the discussion about Infiniband is that one of the reasons we (inaudible) business is it required different types of relationships and to some extent go to market. Does Ethernet relative to fiber channel change how you go to market or the types of relationships or do you have a sense of what the relationship was?

Simon Biddiscombe

No, not really. Actually what changes, just going back to an earlier question as to the cloud. So the way I would characterize how the market has evolved over the course of a short number of years is it used to be sufficient that QLogic would go to market by calling HP, IBM, Oracle, Dell, NetApp, and EMC. So six major customers represent a vast majority of the revenues. I would call on one engineering organization for development, one sales organization to sell the product through and that would be the past month.

So now I still have to call on that group of customers because it's a critical data center but within customers there now cloud services groups like Dell's quite a services group. IBM has a team that does something similar. So now I've got to call on a cloud services group within each of major OEMs. Then I've got to call on the major Web 2.0 companies who have the way to architect their own solutions. Then I've got to call on the light box manufacturer in Taiwan as an independent set of customers and as a set of suppliers of technology of those Web 2.0 giants. So we've gone from having one very specific path to market called the traditional OEMs.

There's really four distinct paths to market, all of which require a slightly different approach but importantly Katy, in every case, there is only a very small number of them. I'm not trying to call on end users the way I would have to had to with Infiniband. So in Infiniband I had to call on very educational institution in the world and every oil and gas company and every meteoroidal office and every Formula One team for Wind tunnel and so on and so on and so on. In the case of go-to-markets associated with the net world there is still a very small number of key participants that QLogic targets engagement with.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Yes, but ultimately a good thing to get a major penetration is increasing. You didn’t call on the Web 2.0 in HBA because they didn’t use them.

Simon Biddiscombe

Right. So they would use them but only in kind of transactional modes, okay. So if I use Google, Google uses fiber channel for processing its own internal transactions. So to a certain extent we're actually transacting business when you buy something, right.

But now as they move from 1 Gig to 10 Gig they become a distinct set of opportunities where QLogic's technology becomes relevant.

Unidentified Analyst

I just had a quick question. The fiber channel was a very mature market and now is Ethernet and (inaudible) converge accounting for your revenue mix is changing towards those, how should we think about your seasonality going forward and the March quarter in particular should we expect a better seasonality and then also going forward through the rest of them, calendar 2012?

Simon Biddiscombe

So you've got a separate traditional seasonality from product cycles and I think this going to be a strange year in that regard because you do have the launches of various servers coming through Europe. I think ultimately our seasonality does not change significantly as a result of the continued attach to servers and storage. They ultimately are attached to servers and storage in one way or another. So I would expect my seasonality to follow the traditional server and storage. What's maybe different this year is because of the various launches that you are going to see from quarter to quarter you theoretically could see better than traditional seasonality but frankly that's going to depend who launches what and when and whether there are end user take ups of those products versus products that already in the market.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Any last questions. Just since you thought Romley would have been latter half of 2011 or a launch over….

Simon Biddiscombe

What Intel said.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Right. Therefore wont there be a lot of products early if everybody was gearing last year.

Simon Biddiscombe

Look, people expected these processes to have been available last year. Shouldn’t everybody be ready at this point in time. It's not obvious everybody is ready. That would be the way to answer the question. One thing that's apparent is as we move as an industry from one generation of technology to the next generation it becomes extraordinarily complex and if you think about Intel and Intel's inability to get the Romley processes into the market in the timeframe they expected it to, the technology complexity associated with that just trickles everywhere. So it's not isolated to just that. There's a ripple effect that causes everything to be a little slower than people expected it to be.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

You still see that six months allowed?

Simon Biddiscombe

Still.

Katy Huberty - Morgan Stanley

Alright. We'll wrap it up there. Thank you very much.

Simon Biddiscombe

Thanks Katy, thanks everybody for your time

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