Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Here's our summary of articles and data points on the housing market. It's part of Seeking Alpha's coverage of the real estate market and homebuilder stocks. Like all other topics and stock coverage from Seeking Alpha, you can have this sent to your Blackberry or desktop email by signing up for our no-spam free email subscription service.

Quote of the Day- "From the House's Mouth"

"Those of us at IndyMac get a little sick of hearing Alt-A is near subprime." - CEO Michael Perry, to analysts on a conference call. Perry said loans made by IndyMac, which caters to 'Alt-A borrowers'-- a level between subprime and prime loans-- are 17 times less prone to default than subprime mortgages." (Bloomberg, July 31st)

Real Estate Sales and House Prices

• Has Resale Home Inventory Peaked For '07? (Lansner on Real Estate, OC Register, July 30th): "Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo: The number of old O.C. homes for sale may be close to topping out for the year.. It would take 9.66 months for buyers to gobble up all homes listed for sale at the current pace of deals vs. 9.73 months two weeks earlier and vs. 7.04 months a year ago. Thomas: "From last week to this week, the inventory has dropped by 9 homes. So, the peak is weeks, if not days, away."

• The Achilles Heel Of The Housing Market Is Volume (Housing Bubble Blog, July 30th): “Washington Post: When Shauntise Harris put her one-bedroom [Washington metro area] condominium on the market in April… she was up against some of her neighbors… but she also was competing with the project’s developer, the JBG Cos. Nineteen months after starting sales, JBG still had units to unload and was offering a year of no condo fees on one-bedroom units, an incentive Harris could not match… Gregory H. Leisch, CEO of Delta Associates, citing a midyear condo market analysis: "There are 20,217 new condos on the market in the Washington metro area. Marketing on another 18,867 units is expected to begin in the next three years.”

• Home-Sales Market Tipping Toward Buyers (Builder Online, July 29th) Washington: "Northwest Multiple Listing Service [NWMLS]: In Southeast King County… pending sales -- those in which offers have been accepted but haven't closed -- were down 24% in June compared with the same month last year. Active listings of single-family homes increased, too -- from 960 last year to 1,005 this year."

• State Of New Jersey: Otteau Contract Report 2005-2007 (Matrix- Miller Samuel, July 29th): "Otteau Appraisal Group report: New Jersey contract-sales activity declined by 5% in June… Following 3 consecutive months of increasing sales activity in January, February and March, sales declined in April, then increased in May, only to decline again in June… The number of unsold homes continued to rise in June, [though] at a slower pace than in the 4 preceding months. Unsold inventory increased in June by only 1% suggesting that inventory growth may be approaching the high-water mark. Statewide unsold inventory now represents an 8.5 month supply, as compared to 8.1 months in May and 7.7 months one year ago."

Affordability Impact

• Rough Sailing ahead as the Real Estate Market Adjusts (Real Estate Focus, July 29th) Florida: "The effects of overbuilding in one area are not localized, or contained within the area in which the inventory is located… The extraordinary inventory in Miami will press on the larger South Florida market. The demand side is also pulling prices lower due to the affordability issue: The income levels of the area can only support a certain amount of spending allocated towards housing. Increases in taxes and insurance have substantially eaten into these available funds."

Real Estate Investing and Sentiment

• Marathon Plans New Subprime Fund (MarketWatch, July 30th): "Marathon Asset Management LLC, a $9 billion hedge fund firm focused on debt markets, is planning a new fund that will buy distressed mortgage-related assets to take advantage of "carnage" in the subprime home loan business… Some [hedge funds] have generated huge returns betting against the market, while others have collapsed. Marathon [says its] Structured Finance Fund, which has invested in asset-backed securities including some backed by subprime mortgages, has generated a positive return so far this year."

• Why Mortgages Under $50,000 Are Hard To Find (Upstate House, July 30th): "Prosper.com brings potential borrowers and lenders together in a virtual market that appears to provide an attractive return to lenders and a reasonable cost to borrowers. Lenders… are given extensive information about borrowers, including credit information and referrals. They can lend as little as $100 on any one deal, which allows them to diversify their risk without committing larger sums. Because it is a virtual market, borrowers can live anywhere. Prosper charges a reasonable origination and servicing fee for… compiling borrower information, collecting the payments, keeping the books, and pursuing delinquent borrowers."

• Banking Against Urban Sprawl (Builder Online, July 30th): "Trella Dickerson, 70, is… the first person in Georgia to sell development rights to her property to guarantee that it won't be developed... Last September, Dickerson sold to a conservancy "land bank" the development rights to part of the 17 acres she [owns]. Any developer that later buys Dickerson's development rights from the land bank actually will be pledging not to develop her property. In return, the developer would be permitted to construct houses elsewhere in the community. She owns the property, lives there and gets the tax benefits, but she and subsequent owners cannot build on it."

Mortgates and Real Estate Lending

• ONB Posts A 'Positive Surprise' (Evansville Courier Press, July 31st) Indiana: "Old National Bancorp (ONB) said Monday its Q2 profit fell about 3% compared to Q2'06 on slightly higher [acquisition] expenses… Old National Q2 net income of $19.6 million, or $0.30/share, compared to $20.2m, also $0.30/share, a year earlier [beat analysts expectations]… CEO Bob Jones: ONB [had] no provisions for loan losses during Q2, vs. $3.5m set aside for loan losses a year ago. Chief Credit Officer Daryl Moore: ONB has reduced its exposure to the residential real estate market during Q2 by selling almost half of its residential real estate mortgage portfolio [and is] taking a "cautious approach" to the commercial real estate sector."

• GMAC Financial Services Reports Preliminary Second Quarter 2007 Financial Results (Auto Spectator, July 31st): "GMAC's Q2 net income generated by auto finance, insurance and other operations -- excluding Residential Capital, LLC (ResCap) -- amounted to $547 million, more than twice… Q2'06 earnings. ResCap incurred a net loss of $254m in Q2'07, bringing GMAC's consolidated net income to $293m. Y/y net income comparison was affected by a $259m gain on the sale of an equity interest in a regional homebuilder in Q2'06… GMAC: "Although severe illiquidity in the nonprime mortgage market placed increasing pressure on asset valuations, aggressive measures undertaken to reduce ResCap's nonprime exposure rendered the company less vulnerable in Q2 to continued weakness in the market."

Subprime Fallout

• MGIC Investment, Radian Shares Plunge On Likely $1 Billion Write Down (Judith Levy in Seeking Alpha, July 31st): "Shares of mortgage insurers MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) and Radian Group (RDN) fell sharply in after-hours trading Monday on news they would likely have to write down most or even all of their $1.03 billion joint venture, Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC [C-BASS], which aims to buy mortgages with overdue payments and improve the collection rates before reselling the debts at a profit… During Q1, MGIC saw its net income fall by 43%, on mortgage-based losses of $181.8 million, while profits fell 49% in the recent-ended quarter. Radian's shares have fallen 40% since announcing the merger with MGIC. Radian said sales of traditional mortgage insurance jumped 60% in Q2 to $10.64 billion, adding to investor concerns it will bear the brunt of further fallout in the U.S. housing market. The companies say the merger is moving forward as planned."

• Jim Cramer's Wall Street Confidential Picks, 7/30/07 (Miriam Metzinger in Seeking Alpha, July 31st): "Jim Cramer: "If you had done something really great in mortgages, I think now you're going to get laid off. The table of employment in mortgages and private equity is just way too high." The recent aggressive hiring in private equity and mortgages is going to be reversed through massive downsizing, Cramer predicted, and since those two divisions were responsible major earnings, these financial stocks are "not going to be cheap." Cramer: "[Banks] with very big deposit bases -- I think that they will be purchased after they go down lower…" Barclays would be wiser to consider buying Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Bank of America, or evenWachovia rather than ABN Amro."

• Subprime Infection Spreads to Germany (Mark McQueen in Seeking Alpha, July 31st): "German bank IKB wasn’t able to ascertain their [subprime exposure] ten days ago… when they confirmed their profit forecast for the year… Exposure… speaks [to the size not] the value of a position… [The question must be:] Is there a liquid market for the subprime paper that you are holding today? And if so, are you holding that paper at the bid side of the market as would be required under GAAP Fair Value Accounting? Has your prime broker offered you a quote based on what they’d actually pay for that position, or just what they believe it might trade at?"

• Bear, Lehman, Merrill, Goldman Traded as Junk, Derivatives Show (Bloomberg, July 31st): "Merrill Lynch indexes: Bonds of U.S. investment banks lost about $1.5 billion of their face value this month as the risk of owning the securities increased the most since at least October 2004. Moody's Investor Service: Prices of credit-default swaps based on the debt imply that Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Goldman Sachs Group's (GS) credit ratings are below investment grade… The highest level of defaults in 10 years on subprime mortgages and a $33 billion pileup of unsold bonds and loans for funding acquisitions are driving investors away from debt of the New York-based securities firms. Concerns about credit quality may get worse because banks promised to provide $300 billion in debt for leveraged buyouts announced this year."

• Fitch Rates Riverside County, California's $110MM COPs 'AA-'; Outlook Stable (San Francisco Business News, July 31st): "Fitch Ratings assigns an 'AA-' rating to approximately $110.3 million County of Riverside's 2007 certificates of participation 2007 Series A and 2007 Series B… The 'AA-' rating reflects Riverside County's continued strong financial operations and reserve levels, growing and diversifying economy and tax base, and good fiscal management. Credit concerns center on the region's very weak and deteriorating housing market and its impact on county revenues such as permit fees and property and sales taxes. The Stable Rating Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that the county will contain its expenditure growth to maintain structural balance as revenue growth slows."

• Hedge Fund Forced to Sell Its Portfolio (NY Times, July 31st): "Sowood Capital sent [a] letter to investors indicating that heavy losses in the credit market had caused the fund to lose more than half its value, prompting it to sell its portfolio to Citadel Investment Group and return the remaining $1.5 billion to investors. Sowood [is] the latest hedge fund hit by a tightening of the credit markets that started in subprime mortgages and has expanded into the broader market, including the loans and bonds used to finance leveraged buyouts. At one time, using leverage, or borrowed money, the fund had $12 to $15 billion worth of positions."

• American Home's Credit Crisis (Business Week, July 30th): "American Home (AHM) originated almost $60 billion in loans in 2006... Jason Willey, a Standard & Poor's equity analyst: Since parts of the credit market aren't really operating properly, it's hard to tell what American Homes' assets are really worth… To survive, American Home needs the secondary credit markets to stabilize, so the company can re-sell its loans for a profit… RBC Capital Markets analyst James Ackor: At the end of Q1, AHM had $837 million in cash… and should be able "to weather a margin call-related storm." (RBC does business with American Home.) Many analysts believe other mortgage companies are now under the same pressure as AHM."

• HSBC Weathers Subprime Storm (Forbes, July 30th): "On Monday, HSBC Holdings (HBC) announced that half-year profits were up 13% to $14.15 billion, thanks largely to strong growth in Asia and in its investment banking division. Basic EPS rose 22% to $0.95 from $0.78 in Q1'06. Loan impairment charges and other credit risk provisions more than doubled to $6.3b in H1'07… HSBC revealed that its reserves for bad loans would have to rise to $10.6b, 20% higher than the $8.8b predicted by analysts for fiscal 2006. Analysts at UBS had predicted that net profit would drop 6% and would also affect its 2007 forecasts for HSBC."

• Banks Are Now Seeing The Light (Record Net, July 29th): "Subprime wholesale lending was only about 1.6% of Wells Fargo's (WFC) $397.6 billion mortgage loan business last year."

Foreclosure Impact

• U.S. Foreclosure Filings Shoot Up – RealtyTrac (Judith Levy in Seeking Alpha, July 31st): "RealtyTrac foreclosure data: U.S. foreclosure filings surged 58% in H1 2007, with California skyrocketing 170% and Florida up 77%. A total of 573,397 homes were subject to some form of foreclosure filing in the period, including default notices, auctions and repossessions... The inventory of homes for sale in June matched May's figure at 8.8 months, the highest in fifteen years. RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio: "We could easily surpass 2 million foreclosure filings by the end of the year, which would represent a y/y increase of over 65%."

• California Foreclosures Rise 170% In First Half Of Year (San Francisco Business Times, July 30th): "RealtyTrac: In California, 104,572 unique properties were in foreclosure [a 170% rise in H1'07]… California ranks first in the nation in the number of properties in forclosure, nearly double the number in No. 2 Florida, which had 64,250. This report marked the first time RealtyTrac reported unique property foreclosures. Previously, the company reported the total number of foreclosure actions -- which could including multiple actions for individual properties."

• Kentucky's Foreclosures Spiked In First Half Of 2007 (Business First, July 30th): "RealtyTrac: 4,503 properties were in some form of foreclosure in Kentucky during H1'07 -- up 55% from H1'06… That's one filing for every 414 households, ranking the state 31st for foreclosures in the country. Indiana had 24,388 properties in foreclosure during H1'07. That figure is down 6% from H1'06, but the state's foreclosure rate of one filing for every 112 households still ranked it 10th in the nation."

• Home Mortgage Defaults, Foreclosures May Pop S. Florida Housing Bubble (Florida Sun-Sentinel, July 29th): "[A] study by housing analysts Geoff Smith and Dan Immergluck is thought to be the only comprehensive look at the effect of foreclosures on property values and is based on Chicago in 1997 and 1998. published last year [the study] found that for every foreclosure within one-eighth of a mile of a single-family home, property values decline by about 1%, and even more in dense developments. Based on their study, the value of a typical Broward County home near one property in foreclosure could drop at least $3,820. Florida Association of Realtors: The county's median-priced home in June was $382,000."

• Living the American Nightmare (San Francisco Chronicle, July 29th): "DataQuick Information Systems: In Q2'07, 2,206 homes in the nine-county Bay Area were lost to foreclosure… the highest number for this area since DataQuick started tracking foreclosures in 1988, and an almost nine-fold increase from 258 foreclosures in the April-June period last year. Also in Q2, DataQuick said 7,696 Bay Area homeowners received notices that they were in default on their mortgage payments -- the first step in the foreclosure process. That was more than double the 2,910 default notices received at the same time last year."

Global Impact and Alternatives To The Housing Slump

• Pirelli RE Recommends Goldman Sachs' 913 Eur/Unit Offer for Berenice Fund (Forbes, July 31st): "Pirelli & C Real Estate SpA has recommended holders of units in the Berenice real estate fund to accept the €913/unit offer made by Goldman Sachs' fund Zwinger. Pirelli RE, which manages the fund, added that it has suspended the sale of five buildings in Rome owned by Berenice. Zwinger's offer is conditional on the cancellation of the sale of these buildings."

• Commerzbank Sets Aside 80 Mln Eur Provisions For Exposure To US Subprime Market (Forbes, July 30th): "Commerzbank AG has set aside €80 mln in provisions to cover its exposure to the US subprime market, of which half will be booked in Q2 and the other half in Q3. The company's total exposure to the market is at €1.2 bln. Commerzbank does not expect its exposure to the faltering US subprime market to impact full-year earnings."

• Bafin Denies Report It Questioned German Banks On US Subprime Exposure (Forbes, July 30th): "German financial regulatory authority BaFin denied a report in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung saying it is concerned that the US subprime crisis may affect German banks, and has questioned several banks regarding their exposure to securitisations for US mortgage loans."

• Foreigners Seek U.S. Homes In Sunny States (Inman News, July 30th): "National Association of Realtors: In 2006, most international home buyers purchased single-family homes or townhomes, and… financed their purchase… 22% of international buyers purchased condos/apartments, vs. 12% of U.S. buyers. 28% of foreign buyers bought their houses with cash, vs. 8% of U.S. buyers. The median sales price of homes purchased by international buyers was $299,500… higher than the U.S. median of $221,900 in 2006… 52% of sales in 2006 were concentrated in three states -- Florida (26%), California (16%) and Texas (10%). The South attracted nearly half – 49%-- of international buyers last year, while 31% purchased homes in the West."

• Singapore's DBS Says No Exposure To Subprime Mortgages (Reuters, July 27th): "DBS Group Holdings, Singapore's biggest bank, has no material exposure to subprime mortgages in the U.S., its chief executive said on Friday. "For our book, it is not material," Jackson Tai told a news briefing after the bank reported its Q2 earnings."

• Japan’s Banks In $8.3bn Subprime Exposure (Financial Times, July 24th): "Japan’s large banks could have an aggregate exposure of Y1,000bn ($8.3bn) to the stricken US subprime mortgage market, highlighting the extent to which the problems of low-quality mortgages in the US are affecting investors globally… UBS's survey [of] the top nine [Japanese] banks [shows] the largest exposure to the US subprime sector appears to be through investments in… collateralised debt obligations and other securitised products that have subprime loans as their underlying assets. The exposure at the banks surveyed was slightly more than Y1,000bn as at the end of June."

Macro Impact, And Will The Housing Slump Cause A Recession?

• Housing Fallout Bruises Oregon (The Oregonian, July 28th): "New housing construction in 2006 dropped 11% in Oregon. [In] the nation's No. 1 timber state, lumber production in mills across the West is down 16% this year for softwoods, which include 2-by-4s used in new homes. And in June, the state's wood-products industry lost 2,900 jobs compared with a year earlier… Weyerhaeuser's (WY) Q1 sales declined 14% from Q1'06r and softwood lumber sales slumped 27%. In response, Weyerhaeuser has cut back operations at 70% of its operations in the Northwest and virtually all of its wood-products plants, which include mills in Lebanon, Warrenton and Dallas… Simpson Timber Co. announced Thursday that it will cease operations at its mills in Shelton and Commencement Bay in Washington beginning Monday… D.R. Johnson Lumber Co. of Riddle in Douglas County started a two-week shutdown Monday at five sawmills in Oregon."

Homebuilders And Housing Stocks

• Impairment Charges Continue To Knock Home-Builder Earnings (Housing Zone, July 30th): "D.R. Horton (DHI) has taken over the dubious distinction of absorbing the biggest quarterly land-related write-off so far in this housing downturn, topping Pulte Homes Inc.'s (PHM) roughly $750 million pretax charge announced last week. Factoring in D.R. Horton's goodwill charge, the quarterly total was nearly $1.3 billion… DHI's CEO Donald Tomnitz: "The cancellation rates reflected the troubles in the mortgage industry and the changes of the underwriting guidelines and the change in the type of mortgages available in the marketplace. In some of our instances across the country we are trying to qualify the same buyer two and three times based upon the changing conditions in the mortgage industry."

• 3 Stocks That Missed the Mark (Motley Fool, July 30th): "No other American homebuilder carries as high a net debt as Centex's (CTX) $5.1 billion. The company is in the bottom quartile of its peers when it comes to total earnings -- well, losses, really -- over the last 12 months. Yet the stock's valuation remains in the middle of the pack, at about 41% of trailing sales… If you're searching for a cheap homebuilder ready to rebound, I'd suggest looking elsewhere."

Commercial Real Estate and REITs

• Sector Snap: Hotel REITs Mixed (Forbes, July 30th): "Shares of four hotel REITs were mixed Monday after a UBS analyst upgraded their stock ratings on valuation… Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. [shares] gained $0.70, or 1.5%, to $46.70 in midday trading, while Hersha Hospitality Trust shares rose $0.27, or 2.7%, to $10.37. Strategic Hotels & Resorts Inc. rose $0.12 to $20.39. DiamondRock Hospitality Co.'s shares lost $0.20, or 1.2%, to $16.30. On Monday, UBS analyst William B. Truelove raised his ratings on the four hotel REITs to "Buy 2" from "Neutral 2," saying each stock is undervalued."

• Tax Hike Could Squeeze Real Estate (The Real Deal, July 30th): "A House bill that would double the tax rate on companies with partnership structures could end up costing commercial and residential real estate companies a lot of money. Although the legislation is aimed at private equity firms and hedge funds, real estate partnerships would not be exempt from the tax hike. The bill would require managers of privately held real estate companies to pay up to 35% in taxes on their profits rather that the long-term capital gains rate of 15%. Francis Greenburger, chairman of Time Equities: "Being taxed as ordinary income could eliminate our business."

• Quick Take: This REIT Isn't Suffering (Motley Fool, July 30th): "Shopping center REIT Kimco (KIM) reported an impressive quarter on Friday… Funds From Operations [FFO] increased 31%... Kimco does a masterful job of managing and developing its properties. Kimco's core has always been the company's ability to identify properties that are underutilized, with below-market rents, and gradually bring them up to market, dramatically increasing the cash flow and value of the properties. [There's also] the recurring management fees the company earns from properties where it partners with investors in the purchase of the property and earns management fees. [And then] the company's ability to take its expertise in developing retail properties and successfully pair it with local market experts in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and Chile."

• Construction Begins On Microsoft's Data-Center Campus (San Antonio Business Journal, July 30th): "Microsoft Corp. has broken ground on its new 447,000-sf data center in the Westover Hills area in Northwest San Antonio. Microsoft (MSFT) will use the center to house tens of thousands of servers that will provide information and Web-based applications to Internet users worldwide… San Antonio Mayor Phil Hardberger: "Microsoft's investment already has raised the profile of San Antonio as a place for technology companies to do business."

• Steinwedell Climbs Corporate Ladder at Wells (Globe St., July 30th): "Tapping its talent pool, Wells Real Estate Funds has made several executive moves. Chief among the changes is David Steinwedell’s shift from chief investment officer to president of Wells Fund Management. The moves follow Wells REITs decision to internalize its management functions with several former Wells personnel coming on board the REIT, which now operates as a stand-alone company."

• Gramercy Prices $1.1B Commercial Real Estate CDO (Globe St., July 30th): "Gramercy Capital Corp. priced Gramercy Real Estate CDO 2007-1, its third commercial real estate CDO transaction. The company will utilize the proceeds of CDO 3 issuance to retire outstanding borrowings under existing secured repurchase agreements, and to acquire virtually all of Gramercy’s existing fixed-rate loans currently financed in Gramercy’s two existing CDOs. Gramercy Capital: CDO 3 is intended to match-fund on a long-term basis a portfolio of investment-grade CMBS acquired under the direction of its recently-formed Real Estate Securities Group, and will also create almost $350 million of immediate financing capacity in its existing CDOs and secured repurchase agreements."

• O.C. Owns Priciest U.S. Retail Center Sale (Lansner on Real Estate in the OC Register, July 30th): "[OC Retail space] pricing hasn't changed significantly, with an average sale price of $144/sf down just 2% over Q1, but up 8% over Q2'06. The most expensive deal… per sf? A 5,042-sf unanchored strip center located at the highly-trafficked intersection of Warner Ave. and Magnolia St. in Fountain Valley ... Magnolia Plaza was purchased by a local investor under the name of Whittier Village Cinemas for $4 million, or $793/sf, at a 4.95% cap rate. The transaction's pp/sf represents a 266% premium over the average $216-pp/sf paid for small shopping centers (3,000-15,000-sf) sold nationally during Q2."

• Kentucky Company Buys Five Shopping Center Portfolio (Globe St., July 30th): "Cohen & Co. Inc. Real Estate sold a portfolio of shopping centers located in Kentucky and West Virginia. CCIRE exclusively represented both the seller, a New York City-based real estate company, and the buyer, a real estate company out of Lexington, Kentucky. The buyer and seller could not be disclosed. Helen Putterman, president of Cohen & Co…. put the cap rate at 8.5%. The portfolio consists of five centers, totaling 700,000-sf. They are located in the county seats in their respective markets and are viewed to have tremendous upside. The upside value has been determined by multiple under market leases, vacancies, and development possibilities."

• Hints of Broader Problems Arise in Real-Estate Loans (Wall St. Journal, July 29th): "S&P: For the first time since Q2'03… CMBS delinquencies rose 13% in Q2to $1.65 billion from $1.46b in Q1, according to a new report by Standard & Poor's… Issuance of these bonds also had risen sharply and the delinquency rate -- a measure of the percentage of loans that go bad -- is still low. Commercial-real-estate fundamentals such as vacancies and rents are solid…Delinquencies on bonds issued in 2005 and 2006 rose the most. In Q2, delinquencies on 2006 CMBS rose to $190.2 million, more than double the $69.8m in Q1. Delinquencies on 2005 CMBS rose 98% to $258 million from $130m in Q1. Both years have more delinquencies already than any other "vintage" besides 1998."

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