OptionsXpress Holdings: Overall Market Declines Could Spell Trouble

Anyone paying attention to U.S. markets recently should have noticed many of the financial stocks getting clobbered. At first it appeared to be an isolated trend for firms involved in sub-prime issues, but soon the overall market became a minefield for nearly all financial related companies from banking, to brokerages, to lending, and trading firms. After Monday’s rebound, I think there are some low-quality names that were bid up that may make for interesting short plays.

OptionsXpress (OXPS) is an online brokerage that caters to options traders but also offers a range of equity and futures based trading platforms. The company seeks to train novice investors by offering a series of online and physical seminars to educate new traders on systems and patterns that should help them make money in the markets.

Call me skeptical, but this idea raises all kinds of red flags when I think about untrained traders gaining expertise from an online broker firm who will show them how to make money in the markets.

The company recently reported numbers for its second quarter and they were relatively well accepted by the street. EPS was up 28% year over year to $0.37 with revenue up 26%. Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) were up to 32,700 which was a 15% increase from Q2 2006 and the company added 11,500 new accounts to bring the total up to 235,300. Reading the press release, I was amused to read that this was the “second quarterly increase in net new accounts.” Ok - so for two quarters in a row the company added new customers! Is that really something to brag about? Shouldn’t you wait for at least 8-10 quarters before you start calling this a trend?

Moving right along (sorry for the outburst), I noticed that new margin rules allow investors to place more risk capital on margin which gives the company better interest income. Now this is purely conjecture, but my guess is that most investors are net long the market, I’m also guessing that most portfolios that use this additional margin have a beta above 1 (that’s putting it gently). The release stated that there were $5.3 billion in customer assets at the end of Q2. What do you bet there is a bit (quite a bit?) less than that now that the market has gyrated down a little? It should be interesting to see what the numbers say next quarter.

Other concerns include lackluster account growth, lower Payment For Order Flow [PFOF] as a result of the penny option pilot program, and a low number of average trades per year. For instance, it cost the company $300 for each new account. Each account trades roughly 36 times a year. Each trade generates $17.73. The pre-tax margin is 64%. That means each account brings in roughly $400 in revenue but it costs $300 to get that account.

I’m worried an overall decline in the market could cause much more acute trouble for this company. While it’s not trading at a high multiple, it is expensive enough with enough concerns to steer clear and possibly use Monday’s strength to initiate a short position. As always, use caution and exercise discipline.

Full Disclosure: Author has a short position in OXPS.

OXPS 1-yr chart:

Comments

[AlanBrochstein]

Zachary, I'll take the other side, though I will admit that I am cautious on the name and have been trading my core position around (and sold some on the pop yesterday after buying Friday)>

First, there are many investors who by mandate have to be invested and who can't stray too far from benchmark weightings. I think that this is one of the best Financials around: no credit exposure, no flat yield-curve headwinds and perhaps a beneficiary of the turmoil. Options and Futures have been gaining in popularity. It is naive to think that this means just going long call options. Hedging and income generation are the names of the game. Increased volatility could lead to growth in their business.

Second, that pre-tax margin that you mentioned blows away that of other online brokers. The acquisition costs are significantly lower as well. The company is differentiated in its offering and has a very good reputation from what I have been able to gather. I find it very interesting that they have lower acquisition costs and higher margins than their peers by far in what is supposed to be a highly competitive industry. It is a sign that they have their own niche. In this environment, I wouldn't be looking for too many new entrants either.

Third, insiders own a big chunk and haven't been selling. There has been a total of 700k sold over the past year - that's dollars not shares and less than $900k over the past two years. This supports my final point, that this baby is being built up to sell. The stock is cheap enough that cash bids would be accretive at prices 20-30% higher (even assuming no synergies). Another overlooked aspect of the company is its excellent balance sheet: no debt and some cash for continued strategic acquistions.

Bottom line: I own it, though I am afraid that this bear market that is developing could prevent the stock from working well. Still, I don't see a lot of downside, so I am holding it as a long and hedging it with index shorts.

[omooc]

So what is wrong with a brokerage firm offering seminars on how to trade options? Acquisition cost is but a one-time phenomenom; based on your own calculation -- even using your very conservative assumptions (36 trades a year?), it is fully recovered in 9 months. I see CME is doing well. So? omooc

[Scott]

"I’m worried an overall decline in the market could cause much more acute trouble for this company."


How can you expect anyone to believe the dribble you espouse about this company or consider it a fair or balanced write up. (I'm disappointed SeekAlpha published this piece)

To the point - your short! To say your "worried" about any future "acute trouble" is a joke.

Why not just say 'I hope this company burns, so I can make tons of cash!" (Crass, but honest)

At least be intellectually honest.