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Cablevision Systems Corporation (CVC)

Q2 2007 Earnings Call

August 8, 2007 10:00 am ET

Executives

Pat Armstrong - IR

Jim Dolan - CEO, President

Tom Rutledge - COO

Josh Sapan - President, CEO Rainbow Media Holdings

Hank Ratner - Vice Chairman

Mike Huseby - CFO, EVP

Analysts

Vijay Jayant - Lehman Brothers

Jason Bazinet - Citigroup

Ben Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

Analyst for Tom Eagan - Oppenheimer

Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poor's Equity

Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank

Richard Greenfield - Pali Research

Bryan Kraft - Credit Suisse

Jessica Reif-Cohen - Merrill Lynch

Presentation

Operator

I would like to welcome everyone to the Cablevision second quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Pat Armstrong, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin your conference.

Pat Armstrong

Good morning, and welcome to Cablevision's second quarter 2007 earnings conference call. Joining us this morning are members of the Cablevision executive team, including Jim Dolan, our President and CEO; Hank Ratner, Vice Chairman; Tom Rutledge, Chief Operating Officer; Mike Huseby, Chief Financial Officer; Josh Sapan, President and CEO of Rainbow Media; and John Bickham, President of Cable and Communications.

Following a discussion of the company's second quarter 2007 result we will open the call for questions. If you do not have a copy of today's earnings release, you may obtain one from our website at cablevision.com. This call can also be accessed via our website.

Please take note of the following. This discussion of Cablevision's results and any discussion of the company's 2007 outlook may contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Please refer to the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of risks and uncertainties. The company disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements that may be discussed during this call. Let me point out that on page 6 of today's earnings release we provide consolidated operations data and a reconciliation of adjusted operating cash flow or AOCF to operating income.

As you know, on May 2, 2007 we announced a merger agreement between the Dolan Family Group and Cablevision. You will find detailed information on this topic in our preliminary proxy, which was filed publicly with the SEC at the end of June. As I am sure you will understand, we will not be able to comment further on this proposal or anything related to it on today's call.

I will now turn the call over to Cablevision's President and CEO, Jim Dolan.

Jim Dolan

Thank you, Pat, and good morning. I would just like to add to that as we previously announced, we expect to schedule a special shareholders meeting this fall to bid and act on the proposal. In due course the shareholders will be receiving the final proxy statement for the special meeting; at that time we will be in a position to discuss the transaction.

Turning now to our second quarter results, Cablevision's consolidated revenue grew more than 12% to nearly $1.6 billion and AOCF increased more than 10% to $509 million. These results were driven by our core cable business, as well as solid revenue and AOCF growth at MSG and Rainbow. Despite essentially flat growth in basic video subscribers, our digital video and data services continue to gain market share while our voice product surpassed 30% penetration of homes passed.

Cablevision continues to enjoy industry-leading penetration rates across every one of our cable services. For Rainbow Media strong increases in both advertising and affiliate revenue helped generate a 12% increase in revenue and a 71% increase in [OIBDA]. In addition, MSG's revenue grew nearly 13% and AOCF increased 81% compared to the prior year period. This growth reflects improved results across a number of MSG's businesses, including its professional sports teams, MSG Networks and MSG entertainment business.

I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Tom Rutledge, who will discuss the results of our telecommunication segment.

Tom Rutledge

Thank you, Jim and good morning. Overall, our core cable business continued to produce solid results in the second quarter 2007. The company gained 168,000 RGUs in the quarter contributing to cable revenue growth 13%. Due to a second quarter 2006 favorable adjustment of $26.5 million relating to the resolution of a contractual programming dispute, reported AOCF growth was 4.2% for the second quarter. Excluding this prior year adjustment, AOCF growth for the second quarter was 11.2% as compared to the prior-year period.

Our average monthly revenue per subscriber or RPS was $121 for the second quarter, an increase of just over $4 sequentially and an increase of $12 or 11% as compared to the prior year period. This represents our 17th consecutive quarter of year-over-year double-digit percentage RPS growth. The $4.00 sequential increase was driven primarily by ongoing consumer demand for our new services. Two-product and three-product offers continue to grow in addition to VOD and DVRs.

Cable capital spending totaled $144 million for the second quarter. Consistent with recent quarters, consumer premises equipment represented the largest component of capital expenditure. We continue to support our RGU growth for more and more DVRs and HD boxes. Let me now address the results of each of our services.

We ended the second quarter with 3.14 million basic video customers, essentially flat as compared to the prior quarter and 1.2% increase in the last year. We continue to use our advanced digital video, voice and online products to attract new customers and expand existing customer relationships.

Our digital video service, IO, added 39,000 customers for the quarter, 81.3% digital video penetration. Our HD video subscribers surpassed the 800,000 mark during the quarter ending the quarter at 809,000. This is an increase of 78% over the last year, reflecting strong demand for HD product. We continue to make our HD offering more attractive and most recently have added the 15 VOOM HD networks all at no additional charge to our customers. We now provide 40 HD programming services to our high-definition customer base.

Turning to our high-speed data Optimum Online service we had a net gain of more than 50,000 customers in the quarter. Our penetration of homes passed at the end of June reached 47% and now Optimum Online customers as a percent of video customers is 69%. Our research shows that more than 50% of new Optimum Online customers are coming from DSL.

Our voice service, Optimum Voice, had a quarterly subscriber gain of 81,000, a total of 1.4 million customers, Optimum Voice is now at over 30% of homes passed and 65% of Optimum Online high-speed data customers.

On the business front, Optimum Lightpath continues its transition to an Ethernet based service business. The number of Ethernet services sold has grown by 20% over the past quarter with the number of buildings lit increasing 22% since last year. As a result, Ethernet revenue has increased 103% from the prior period. As evidence of this recent success Lightpath has been recognized with awards from organizations such as CTAM and Metro Ethernet Forum for its quality of service and marketing.

Our outlook for the rest of the year is today that we are providing the following update for cable television as follows: basic video subscriber growth be flat and revenue generating unit additions of 825,000 to 900,000; revenue growth of approximately 11%, AOCF growth of approximately [inaudible].

While we are affirming our outlook for 2007, total capital spending in the range of $600 million to $650 million, we expect to be closer to the low end of that range. We've made these revisions to reflect our actual second quarter results and our expectation that we will remain in a competitive environment.

I would now like to turn the call over to Josh Sapan who will discuss Rainbow's results.

Josh Sapan

Thank you, Tom. Beginning with AMC IFC and WE the second quarter revenue at our national programming networks, AMC, IFC and WE TV increased 9.9% to $166.8 million and AOCF for the quarter was $74.2 million, an increase of 28.8% as compared to the prior year. The quarterly increase in revenue includes a 12% increase in advertising revenue driven by higher CPMs and increased sellout rates at AMC and the 9% increase in affiliate revenue compared to the prior year period. The increase in AOCF was primarily driven by this higher revenue coupled with lower contractual rights expense versus the second quarter of '06. We are pleased with the results of the national networks for the second quarter and for the first half of 2007.

It should be noted that our full-year contractual rights expense is expected to be greater than prior years as we debut more new original programming, continuing our strategy of investing in high-quality original programming to drive viewership and ratings. I am pleased to report that AMC received 18 Primetime Emmy nominations for two pieces of programming, Broken Trail and Hustle. Those 18 means that AMC had more Emmy nominations than any other basic cable channel in the business. We hope to continue this success in original programming with our first dramatic series called Mad Men, which premiered in July to excellent reviews.

Turning now to Rainbow's other programming businesses which primarily include News 12, VOOM HD Networks, Fuse, IFC Entertainment and our VOD services Lifeskool and Sportskool. As most of you are aware, we completed the sale of our interests in Fox Sports Net Bay Area and Fox Sports Net New England to Comcast on June 30. Therefore the results for Fox Sports Net Bay Area has been moved to discontinued operations and are no longer included in this section of Rainbow's results.

Second quarter net revenue for this other programming increased 16% to $61 million and the AOCF deficit was flat at $34 million as compared with the same quarter last year. The increase in net revenue was primarily driven by higher revenue at the VOOM HD Networks. This favorable revenue impact was largely offset by increased print and acquisition costs and print and advertising at IFC Films resulting in a flat AOCF comparison for the second quarter.

I would now like to turn it over to Hank Ratner who will discuss the results for Madison Square Garden.

Hank Ratner

Thank you, Josh. Turning to MSG's operating results, second quarter revenue increased 13% to $182 million compared to the second quarter of 2006. AOCF for the quarter increased to $33 million from $18 million in the prior year period, an improvement of 81%. Second quarter results were driven by higher entertainment revenue in AOCF, reflecting better results from events at our existing venues when we had a year ago, as well as the addition of the Beacon Theatre, which we acquired in January.

Second quarter events included the sold out June 9th boxing events, in which Miguel Cotto defeated Zab Judah to retain the WBA Welterweight Championship. At Radio City Music Hall we featured the Tony Awards, the Sopranos final season premiere, Dave Matthews and the NFL draft. At the Beacon Theatre we had 15 sold out Allman Brothers shows. Additionally, MSG and Radio City Music Hall were once again ranked number one in their venue categories by Billboard Magazine. The Wamu Theater at Madison Square Garden and the Beacon Theatre also made the top 10 again this year at 3 and 8, respectively.

Other factors that drove second quarter results included higher MSG Network revenue in AOCF, reflecting higher affiliate revenue, which more than offset lower ad sales and higher operating costs and higher combined revenue and AOCF for the Knicks and Rangers. This was largely driven by the Rangers second-round playoff run and lower team operating expenses, primarily due to lower team personnel compensation costs and lower luxury tax. Both the Knicks and Rangers continue to build on their strategy for long-term success. The Knicks sold out 17 of their last 20 regular season games, and the Rangers sold out 75 consecutive regular season games. We expect these trends to continue for the upcoming season. Both teams have also had extremely productive off seasons with the Knicks signing Zach Randolph and the Rangers signing Chris Drury and Scott Gomez.

I will now turn the call over to Mike Huseby who will briefly cover the company's overall financial position.

Mike Huseby

Thank you, Hank. During the first six months of 2007 the company generated free cash flow of $94.5 million. Capital expenditures for the first half of 2007 were $284 million for the cable operations and were $333 million for the total company. This compares to $488 million for the total company for the same period of 2006, which is a drop of 32%. This decrease in capital spending was principally due to lower purchases in consumer premises equipment in the current year, as well as the investments we made in the first half of 2006 to enhance the speeds and competitive positioning of our high speed data service offerings. The free cash flow of $94.5 million compared to a deficit of $45.7 million in the same period a year ago even after incurring higher interest expense in 2007 associated with the financing of the special cash dividend distributed to all shareholders in April 2006.

Turning to leverage and liquidity, the company's consolidated cash position at the end of the second quarter was just in excess of $1 billion and net debt was slightly less than $10.5 billion. As Josh mentioned earlier, we sold our interest in two regional sports networks on June 30 and received $581 million in cash. Obviously that had a direct impact on both our cash and net debt positions at the end of the quarter.

As of June 30 the company's consolidated leverage ratio was 5.2 times, and the CSC holdings restricted group leverage ratio was 4.9 times. At June 30, Rainbow National Services had approximately $1.3 billion of debt and $300 million available to it under its revolving credit facility. The ratio under its bond leverage as of June 30 was 4.1 times. Last week we announced the optional redemption of a portion of the RNS 10 3/8 senior subordinated notes, and this transaction is expected to be completed sometime during the third quarter.

Before we open the call to questions, I would like to reiterate that we will not address any questions at this time related to the proposed merger or the preliminary proxy filing. Operator, we would now like to open the call for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Your first question comes from Vijay Jayant - Lehman Brothers.

Vijay Jayant - Lehman Brothers

I just wanted to get some context of what is really happening in the competitive landscape. Across the board we have seen a slowdown in broadband across both the RBOCs and cable and obviously some turn in basic sub growth this quarter. Can you give us any update on if there has been a real change out there in the marketplace?

Tom Rutledge

In terms of broadband in the marketplace, we did have lower broadband sequential growth. It is hard for me to tell what the macro environment is exactly because we don't have that much of a trend. But we have been growing our data as a result of the triple play on new acquisitions and so our video growth has slowed as a result of a variety of factors, including our very high penetration.

We have switched strategies beginning in July to use the triple play against our existing customer base with the same type of pricing that we offered the rest of the marketplace. So we will see how it works out. But we are beginning to see some increase in volume as a result of the triple play to our existing customer base.

Vijay Jayant - Lehman Brothers

Following on that, if you look at your guidance change it looks like it is primarily due to a reduction in basic subscribers which you are now guiding flat. But you are keeping your other expectations pretty constant, so it is implying a higher sell-in of your other products in the back half of the year. Can you give us some context on that, too?

Tom Rutledge

That's correct and that is what I just said in terms of our strategy on the triple play offer.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jason Bazinet - Citigroup.

Jason Bazinet – Citigroup

Just one question regarding the EBITDA margins within the cable and Lightpath segment. One of the things that we are concerned about is as RGUs slow a lot of the CapEx which is really labor begins to move from the cash flow statement in the form of CapEx onto the income statement in terms of operating expenses.

I was just wondering, is that the root cause of four sequential quarters we've seen on EBITDA margin compression within the cable and Lightpath segment? Thank you.

Tom Rutledge

No. That's not at all what caused it. First of all, we capitalize labor only in a way that is directly related to a physical transaction, and if we aren't doing a transaction that cost would go away and would not end up as an operating cost. So that is not what happens in our margins. Our margin improved sequentially second quarter to first quarter, and it is impacted by a variety of cost and revenue-related issues and has nothing to do with capitalization.

Jason Bazinet – Citigroup

On a year-over-year basis, the margin compression then is just what? Is it programming costs or is it just discounting?

Tom Rutledge

It is a variety of things, including marketing expenses.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ben Swinburne - Morgan Stanley.

Ben Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

Going back to your guidance changes Tom, could you talk about the gross adds versus churn mix as you look at the second quarter numbers but also the second half? I think the questions in the markets tend to focus on the housing market and economic slowdown would tend show up in the gross connects potentially. It looked like you reported churn increases for all three basic digital, video and data year over year, so if you can give us a little more color on, is the churn to blame for the change in RGU outlook? Is that a Verizon issue or are there more things at play here?

Tom Rutledge

There actually are more things at play. The Verizon forecast that we have that we included in our guidance previously is pretty accurate. Their construction process has been predicted by us accurately in our forecasting, and their growth has been predicted accurately by us.

The difference in our numbers really are as a result of our expectations in primarily New York City, which last year we completed a full digitization project of New York City and got a significant lift as a result of that. We have not seen that lift in the second quarter continuing. So it appears to be more of a onetime lift than a permanent situation.

So the primary reason for the change in our forecast is the lack of growth at the rate it was growing in New York City last year.

Ben Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

That is a video specific comment you're making?

Tom Rutledge

Yes.

Ben Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

One quick follow-up on the marketing point you just made. Is marketing spend as a percent of revenue growing over the last several quarters?

Tom Rutledge

Yes, Verizon has activated 750,000 passings inside of our footprint of 4.6 million passings. They are spending in the first six months on marketing on an annualized basis somewhere between $80 million and $100 million a year against those passings just on broadcast. So we have upped our marketing spending so that our position in the marketplace is not drowned out by that kind of marketing.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tom Eagan - Oppenheimer.

Analyst for Tom Eagan - Oppenheimer

A follow-up on the question about why growing basic subs have been challenging. Is the triple play halo affect declining, and could you speak maybe what the impact of FIOS was in the quarter?

Tom Rutledge

I won't speak to FIOS except to say said that it is on target with our expectations and our experience over the last two years that they've been active selling against us. In terms of the triple play, we have had good results with the triple play. We've increased the universe that we've offered the triple play against as of July 1 and that is part of our continued forecast.

Analyst for Tom Eagan - Oppenheimer

So what may be the prospects for a triple play penetration, and is the ceiling here lower than previously expected, given your lower guidance, or is it still the same?

Tom Rutledge

We don't guide to our triple play penetration but right now 43% of our customers are triple play customers.

Analyst for Tom Eagan - Oppenheimer

Is there some sort of a ceiling number?

Tom Rutledge

100% would be the ceiling.

Analyst for Tom Eagan - Oppenheimer

What percent of customers are churning after the anniversary of their first triple play package?

Tom Rutledge

We haven't reported that on this call but in the past the churn of triple play customers is significantly lower than all customers by approximately 9%.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poor's Equity.

Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poor’s

I'll start with the comment on the triple play marketing to existing subs. I was wondering what impact you expect that to have on ARPU? It seemed like there was some ARPU degradation this quarter so I wanted to know what you have in your model or what kind of response you're getting. Because I know previously you had talked about upselling in the 120 to 130 range. So some color on that would be helpful.

Tom Rutledge

We don't guide to ARPU, and we've giving you our revenue guidance. But our triple play strategy up till now has been to sell-in acquisitions and the average revenue that customers are coming on at is $117, and they step up at the end of the one-year period to approximately $143 average revenue per customer.

Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poor’s

That's helpful. And one quick question for Jim and I apologize for this in advance, Jim, but it just seems like a lot of investors that I speak to seem to want some more transparency in the process, the whole entire process of the buyout. It just seems like every call there is really no further information available. I totally understand the comment that there will be a time to address those questions but I just wanted to see if there is anyway at all that we can have some more transparency in the entire process, just to be able to know how the whole developments are going.

Jim Dolan

I think the best I can say to you is that we are being patient, we are asking you to be patient. The transparency will be there. We need to go through the process and ultimately I think you will find that overall the transaction and the process itself will have complete clarity to you. You just have to wait.

Operator

Your next question comes from Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank Securities.

Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank

Tom, with your comments that FIOS is on track with your internal expectations, can you delve into in more detail? How much of your footprint does FIOS video cover? What penetration, how successful are your efforts? Obviously what we are trying to do is separate out the impact from the one-time impact of going all digital in New York City with the ongoing impact of FIOS.

Tom Rutledge

I'm not going to expand on my comments other than to say that, as I just said, there are 750,000 video passings active that Verizon has today. They had built a little over 1 million passings in total and are only authorized to serve video currently in 750,000 of those. They are going to get franchises for the rest of their plan, we're sure at some point, although they have been slow in getting them. We've been facing this overbuild for now two years in video and three years in total. We have given you information in the past about what overbuilds do against us, and there is nothing that has changed in our experience or expectation as a result of this overbuild.

Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank

Tom, you mentioned using the triple play historically has been a tool for new customers. But over the past year you've added about 1 million new RGUs but only about 55,000 new customer relationships. Are you changing strategies or considering changing strategies to target the 1.3 million homes that are not currently your customers?

Tom Rutledge

No.

Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank

If I am tackling the numbers right, free cash flow for the second quarter dropped pretty dramatically year-over-year. Your CapEx was lower and your EBITDA was higher and I am sure there is more information in the Q coming, but could you give us a sense of what was happening with working capital and will it reverse in the future quarters?

Mike Huseby

When you say year over year, we have working capital nuances quarter to quarter. For example, we have higher interest payments in the second quarter than we do in the first quarter because we pay our Cablevision interest payments in the second quarter while we pay Rainbow interests in the first quarter. So if you look at what was reported last quarter, you will also see that on an unadjusted basis just look at last quarters' earnings release that includes Fox Sports Bay, which is not included in the six-month number for 2007.

We aren't going to guide to free cash flow because there are so many things that affect it, as you're pointing out. Working capital changes, this year we have privatization costs that are affecting it. We're just reporting the facts, and that's about all I can say. Your implications are right. There are working capital swings between quarters, and we are not guiding on an annual basis.

Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank

Following up on Vijay's questions can you give us a sense of what the sell-in percentages are right now for high-speed data?

Tom Rutledge

On new connects?

Doug Mitchelson - Deutsche Bank

Yes.

Tom Rutledge

Mid 50s.

Operator

Your next question comes from Richard Greenfield - Pali Research.

Richard Greenfield - Pali Research

You filed a proxy -- I want to say six to eight weeks ago -- detailing a lot of internal company projections for Cablevision that give a different light than what your previous guidance was, as well as what your new guidance was. I was just hoping you could reconcile for investors what those projections really were relative to what you've given in guidance at the end of the last conference call, as well as today's conference call. Thanks.

Jim Dolan

As we stated before, we are not going to be able to have a discussion about that in today's call. That will have to wait until the special shareholders meeting.

Operator

Your next question comes from Bryan Kraft - Credit Suisse.

Bryan Kraft - Credit Suisse

You guys had disclosed that management's plan including an assumption that Verizon stops building FIOS within Cablevision's footprint at the end of this year. I am just trying to understand why management thinks that is the case given that it seems to be the opposite of what Verizon is sending as their message, as well as their action?

Jim Dolan

Again, that was in the proxy. We are not going to discuss that today. That is for the special shareholders meeting. You're going to have to wait. Sorry.

Operator

Your final question comes from Jessica Reif Cohen - Merrill Lynch.

Jessica Reif Cohen - Merrill Lynch

Tom, going past 2007 if we could just look out, in past calls you've talked about where you think ultimate penetration can be for some of your services. I was wondering if you could talk about that in terms of data, voice and also could you just talk about the pricing of the triple play offered to your existing subs? How different will that be?

Tom Rutledge

Well, as you know, our voice penetration is now over 30%, and our data penetration is 47% of homes passed. Digital penetration is[inaudible] and video is 68%. So we have obviously we've penetrated deeply into the market, a lot further than the rest of the industry. But even more interestingly, there are parts of our market that have penetrated a lot more deeply than our average. So that gives us an expectation that we have a continued opportunity to penetrate deeply into the market with these products that ultimately everybody wants to have a phone and everybody wants to have data and everybody wants multichannel TV.

It is a competitive world but I think ultimately most people, almost all people will have all of these products, and our job is to go out and take as much of that as we can. So I don't see any real market limitation to the products themselves.

In terms of costs to existing customers, we have had a triple play for a number of years now with an offer of a little less than $90 for all three products that people have been buying into at an approximately $117 and moving up successfully after a year to $143. We've now offered the triple play starting in July to our existing customer base, and we have not yet reported on any of those numbers. Those new revenues and new market reactions will be reported to you in the future.

Pat Armstrong

I think that's it. Thank you, everyone for being on the call today.

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