U.S. stocks are moving in for the biggest weekly gain of the year so far, and oil is increasing at a healthy rate. The week saw a good recovery for most stocks, both in the U.S. and Europe. Even the markets are breaking records - the S&P 500 saw past-1400 levels at market close during the week, for the first time in the last four years. If this is not the right time for investing, few other times are.
I have not been writing Cramer articles for more than a month, but now is the right time to make note of a pro's thoughts on the stocks here, as well as add my own. The O-Metrix Scoring System is applied where possible. What follows is a fundamental analysis of these stocks from Cramer's Lightning Round:
Data from Finviz/Morningstar. You can download the O-Metrix calculator here.
Cramer believes that the split is going to "bring out a huge amount of value". The stock shows a trailing P/E ratio of 19.2, and a forward P/E ratio of 13.7. Estimated annualized EPS growth for the next five years is 9.1%. It sports a juicy dividend of 3.03%, while the profit margin is 6.5%.
While the stock was overbought two months ago, it has clearly gained a strong foothold at this level now. The Relative Strength Index (52.67%) is quite safe, and the indicators signal a strong upward movement. With a Beta value of 0.54, Kraft is one of the least volatile stocks in its industry. The debt-to equity ratio (0.6) is another green number for Kraft, well below the industry average of 1.1. Revenue and cash flow seems strong enough to handle a split. The company is also getting a $4 billion revolving credit line. Kraft is offering a generous return with negligible risk. I believe it's worth a shot. Based on these numbers, Kraft has an O-Metrix score of 3.68.
ConocoPhillips is another company to bring out significant value with its split, according to Cramer. The oil company is trading at a single-digit P/E ratio of 8.5, and a forward P/E ratio of 8.8. Five-year annualized EPS growth forecast is 5.12%. Profit margin (5.0%) is below the industry average of 7.8%, while dividend yield (3.45%) is satisfactory.
ConocoPhillips is an extremely undervalued stock, which has a fair value in the $135-$185 range. Although the company is heavily dependant on natural gas, a possible rise in natural gas prices can send COP's share price skyrocketing. The tension between the States and Iran is likely to heat up even more, which will keep oil and gas prices rising across the globe.
Iran is a key country for the oil market; therefore, holding some oil stocks should do fine. With an attractive dividend and upward potential, ConocoPhillips makes for a good bet. Insiders too prove me right here, having made transactions in the region of around 358% in the last six months. ConocoPhillips has an O-Metrix score of 4.95.
Wow, does Nokia still exist ? "Don't pull the trigger. They are getting their butts kicked by Apple (AAPL)," the Mad Money host said. Nokia is selling at a negative P/E ratio of -13.0, and a forward P/E ratio of 13.6. With a profit margin of -3.0%, it is surprising to see that Nokia is offering a 3.53% dividend.
I believe Nokia is giving it one hell of a fight out there in Finland, but it's obviously not enough. Earnings decreased by 244.15% this quarter, and 162.97% this year. All ROA, ROE, and ROI are below zero, as well as Simple-Moving Averages. Revenue and assets are suffering real badly. I am itching to give you some good news, since I was a big fan of Nokia phones before switching to the iPhone, but it is heart-breaking to see a once-great company melting down day by day.
The market cap is close to $20 billion currently; it was more than $150 billion in December 2007. I believe it is essential to leave Nokia behind, and stick with Apple now. Apple has successfully eliminated the tough boys of the phone arena like Nokia and Research in Motion (RIMM), and has been up against only with Samsung for some time now. There is little serious competition in this field for Apple. Even if the Samsung-Apple war ties up, Apple will be holding half of the smartphone market of the world, which will make the company an unbeatable giant.
Moreover, iPhone has become the universal symbol of the smartphone arena. Its prestige in the smartphone market plays a vital role in Apple's success. Because of its success in innovation, the market is quickly filled with imitations as soon as Apple releases something. Cell phone producers do not compete with each other anymore; their main target is to catch up with only the iPhone.
We have all been watching Apple's recent boost with admiration, with its share price up to nearly $600 a share. I remember Apple skyrocketing in July 2011 when the bears were outweighing the bulls, indicating then perhaps that Apple won't go up any more. But it was trading at $343 a share on July 1 and still climbed to $403 a share on July 26. Now, it's unbelievable to see a mediocre-performing tech company of the 1990s climb to this high. Going forward, the release of the iPad3 could be another profit booster for Apple.
Since Google is not in China, Cramer suggests going with Baidu in the Land of Mao. The search engine shows a trailing P/E ratio of 45.3, and a forward P/E ratio of 21.1. It pays no dividend, while the profit margin is 46.5%, crushing the industry average of 21.4%.
Although Baidu seems quite safe with these strong numbers, the overall performance gives in the right data. With a Beta value of 1.88, Baidu is the fifth most volatile stock among its peers. The stock couldn't maintain a stable growing environment last year, dealing with bungee-jumpings all the time. Until Baidu starts showing some safe background data, it stays in my high-flyers list. Baidu has a B-Grade O-Metrix score of 7.00.
Cramer made the following remarks on this name:
Buy, buy, buy. People don't understand it is going radically toward oil. It is a brilliant company. It is going where the money is being made.
The Oklahoma-based oil company is selling 14 times earnings, and 9 times forward earnings. Analysts expect the company to have an 8.35% annual EPS growth in the next five years. Although profit margin (41.1%) nearly triples the industry average of 14.5%, dividend yield (1.10%) is relatively poor.
As I've said, any oil company will do just fine at the moment. Devon is another strong candidate for portfolios, as well. Although the stock was underperforming before October 2011, it is moving very parallel to the oil tensions story right now. Revenue, assets, and cash flow are getting real strong. Debt-to equity ratio (0.3) is also brilliant, way lower than the industry average of 0.8. Devon is also benefitting from its solid Q4 2011 results. The stock is favored by T. Boone Pickens, as well. Note that its forward P/E ratio will lead to a 40% discount to its 5-year average. It would be rewarding to keep some Devon for now. Devon has an O-Metrix score of 3.98.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.