Looking Ahead to Options Expiration Friday

The S&P 1400 is another area of interest to me on the way down to the 80 week moving average (1375) given huge open interest on the putside in both the August SPYs and the SPXs at 140 and 1400, respectively. Of concern is this past Friday's run up above 1500 only for the index to close back at the 50 week moving average. As Dirty Harry said, "Do you feel lucky" about another run to 1500?

Yes, it could happen. But given the mayhem in the Russell which has led to the downside in this market, and is already testing its 80 week moving average, it is likely that S&P will soon follow suit, and test its 80 week. Remember, there had been a carry trade of sorts going on with funds and other characters selling puts on the SPX and using proceeds to buy calls on the iShares Russell 200 Indes (IWM). They ended up being too long on the SPX, and also had to scramble to dump long bets on the IWM.

The open interest condition on SPX and SPY can change by the end of the week, so it will need to be monitored going into Friday's expiration.

Comments

[omooc:]

Good comment. Don't understand what you meant by "too long on SPX." I thought that, when one sells puts, one wants the underlying security or index to go up. What happens one one is "too long"? omooc

2007 Aug 13 02:33 PM

[omooc:]

Good comment. Don't understand what you meant by "too long on SPX." I thought that, when one sells puts, one wants the underlying security or index to go up. What happens when one is "too long"? omooc

2007 Aug 13 02:34 PM