I didn’t wait for the 35 to 40 range to buy the puts as planned (see previous posts: July 23rd, May 8th) because they didn’t seem to be falling much in price during the downdraft, suggesting traders were beginning to price in a VIX peak. There might be even greater VIX spikes in weeks ahead but I can average down (or cut my losses, depending on the course of events).
The particular puts purchased were the Sept 20s at a price of $1.15. In hindsight, this may have been too aggressively out of the money. Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see what they do over the next few weeks. Hopefully, investors’ fears will have subsided enough by mid-September to give them a nice gain.
It was interesting to see the market rally in the last hour of trading on Friday. The previous three Fridays, there were sharp sell-offs in the last hour. Maybe that indicates the beginning of a shift in sentiment? But of course, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few more subprime dominoes fall – but maybe the market won’t freak out as before given central banks are stepping up to the plate and injecting liquidity into the system.