This Will Have Been a Buying Opportunity

We are starting to field calls from a few nervous investors. For the diversified long term investor, now is a time of excitement and opportunity. Now is a time to sow the seeds of future success. THE WORST THING YOU CAN DO IS MAKE A QUICK DECISION TO SELL!!!!!!!!!

We are confident by winter this will have looked like a buying opportunity. Remember, most corrections take roughly 4 months to pass. We would encourage those who read this site, to review the previous post “Interesting Bear Market & Correction Stats”. We have taken the liberty to re-post some data.

The following data covers from 1/1/1945 to 6/30/2007. Corrections are defined as minimum 10%, but not greater than 20%. Bear markets are minimum 20% decline or greater. The data is taken from S&P 500 index.

Comments

[Christopher...:]

it's that kind of hubris that continues to get us into trouble.

2007 Aug 15 06:55 PM

[robert99:]

LOL.

2007 Aug 15 08:38 PM

[dinht01:]

This is just plain stupid!

2007 Aug 15 11:35 PM

[slickvguy:]

"We are confident by winter this will have looked like a buying opportunity"

Good grief, what mindless idiocy. Difficult to know where to begin with a post that's so full of BS and dumb on so many levels. Worse, you actually advise people on what to do with their money? Heaven help those poor souls.

You are anything BUT confident. Replace the word "confident" with "wishful".

2007 Aug 16 12:12 AM

[keith:]

I can appreciate the strong words provoked by this recent post. However, if you read the other post on my site thecapitalinvestor.com, you'll get a better picture. Our investors have been prepared for this correction for some time. I think the stats got a bit messed up in the translation from my site to seeking alpha. It is a bit more clear on my site. You will get a better sense of the on going conversation, if you review my site. Site aggregations, like seeking alpha, don't pick up all post. With a 13% cash weight, 4% weight in none correlated asset to the market, 4% mid cap, 15% EFA, 4% HYG and 60% large cap with growth bias, we are looking well prepared. Yes, we are starting to work money in the market. I think for the long term investor this will be a great time to work into certain sectors!

2007 Aug 16 05:56 AM

[Carl leason:]

Keith,....Wake up ! We have been in a true bear market for just about a year already and it ain't getting better any time soon. Too much on the market and still way too high priced. My credentials,...26 years selling R.E. and the past year is the worst I have ever seen ! What's going on now hasn't changed at all !
Still a huge over supply of homes, and builders are folding like crazy,...but you think it's a good time to buy ! Go for it.! No better way to learn than learning by mistakes ! LC

2007 Aug 17 12:07 PM

[keith:]

Lee- If you see my post on a home builders view, I think it is under my profile on seekingalpha.com. I agree about the R.E. There is still time to work through this. Remeber, there is some active management in out investment process. I for one don't see a 29' depression still economy developing. There are opportunities in the market. I think we will have to civily agree to disagree.

2007 Aug 20 04:25 AM

[Carl leason:]

Keith, I believe you are looking at the R.E.Market as a whole, certainly not state by state.
Also, Certainly we are not looking at a depression but it definitely is going to be a state by state adjustment,..perhaps I should have made myself clearer, but the CA, AZ , and FL markets are greatly different than , for example the Chicago market or NYC ! Unfortunately, I happen to be selling in Fl and it's going to remain a disaster here for some time ! Check it out ! LC

2007 Aug 20 11:43 PM

[keith:]

Lee- Yes, I do agree 100%. R.E. is a regional factor. I am also based out of Jacksonville, Florida and it is real rough. I have clients in Tampa-Odessa and in Destin, so have been getting lots of feedback. It is a bit funny, but look at the history of Florida and its boom and bust cycles. If memory serves correctly, there was a great run in 27 & 28 before the crash 29 national crash. Accordingly, one of my clients in Jax has a R.E. brokerage firm and happens to own commercial property, as well. They are telling me it is the worst market they have very seen in their 30 years. Secondly, the builder in Florida is weathering the storm, but its not a joy ride. The flip side is my Big Money investors are actually starting to really scout out opportunities. If you have great opportunities, we should talk, as I have clients ready to step in. This is the time when they really clean house. My e-mail keith@lengerassetmanag... or lengerassetmanagement....

2007 Aug 23 05:57 AM

[Carl leason:]

Hi Keith,
The usual investors that arrived on the west coast of FL last fall didn't do anything but look,...
no buying activity ! I have seen a pick up in sellers who are willing to sell at almost any price, some people dug in their heels for a long time but are now getting tired of waiting for a recovery. I have sellers who have dropped their prices by 15 pct. but still no buyers. Most sellers now realize that the market is slow to nil, but are becoming willing to price property more realistically. People here (FL) have totally lost confidence in Gov. also and that isn't helping a bit ! The promised tax reductions have not materialized yet, even on the latest TRIM notices. Even my own home is valued higher this year and this in spite of the fact that home prices are down from last year at this time. For starters, I am going to vote against every
elected official in the state ! Being put out of office is the only thing these jerks understand !
I have recently seen some people "looking" which is a plus but really taking their time in making decisions ! Fortunately the "Flippers" of past years are gone , but I don't see a turn around for at least a year or more. Realistically, prices are still high when one looks at wages and , for investors, RETURN ON INVESTMENT just isn't there yet ! On the plus side, the weak dollar might get Canadians back into the market along with the English, Germans, etc. Lets also hope the Snowbirds are more optimistic this coming winter ! Regards, LC

2007 Aug 23 11:50 AM