Job Posting Trends: Worrying Sign For These 10 Companies?

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 |  Includes: CAR, FRC, JWN, MTB, PEET, SCHW, SWY, TIF, WAFD, WU
by: Contextuall

We just scanned data on online job postings, and it's not looking good. To analyze the real-time state of the job market, we've collected daily online job postings data from thousands of websites since the start of March. This morning, we mapped the data points back to a sample of U.S. zip codes, and our initial results seem to indicate a slowing in job growth.

Based on our sample of 11,879 zip codes, only 2112 areas saw an increase in online job postings (based on a 2-mile radius per zip code). In other words, only about 18% of zip codes in our sample have seen growth in online job postings since the start of March.

Of course, one could argue that the sample is too small to draw any conclusions (we only cover about 25% of U.S. zip codes), but we did focus our analysis on the most populated zip codes. Regardless, we'll do a more thorough scan of the data, and report back over the coming days.

In the meantime, we wanted to identify the companies that are most vulnerable to this emerging trend of job market slowdown. To do that, we blended our jobs data with a database of 200K+ store locations that have been mapped to a set of 160 publicly traded retailers and restaurant stocks. We've identified the companies that have a significant exposure to areas of falling online job postings since the start of March.

Do you believe that online job postings can be used as a proxy for real-world job market trends? Do you think any of the companies mentioned below are vulnerable to a slowing job market? Does this approach make sense to you? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

List sorted by exposure to slowing online job postings. We've also included links to interactive maps to help you explore some of the data.

1. Zipcar, Inc. (ZIP): Operates a car sharing network for its members in metropolitan areas and on university campuses in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Of the 115 store locations in our database, only 4 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 96.52% of ZIP stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings). Click here for an interactive map.

ZIP Store Locations and Online Job Posting Trends

2. First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC): Provides private banking, private business banking, investment management, brokerage, trust services, and real estate lending services in California, Nevada, and New York. Of the 61 store locations in our database, only 3 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 95.08% of FRC stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings). Click here for an interactive map.

3. Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN): Nordstrom, Inc., a fashion specialty retailer, offers apparel, shoes, cosmetics, and accessories for women, men, and children in the United States. Of the 299 store locations in our database, only 19 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 93.65% of JWN stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings). Click here for an interactive map.

4. Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY): Operates as a food and drug retailer in North America. Of the 563 store locations in our database, only 36 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 93.61% of SWY stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings). Click here for an interactive map.

5. Washington Federal Inc. (NASDAQ:WAFD): Operates as the holding company for Washington Federal, which provides various financial services in the United States. Of the 46 store locations in our database, only 3 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 93.48% of WFSL stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings).

6. Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE:SCHW): Provides securities brokerage, banking, and related financial services to individuals and institutional clients. Of the 179 store locations in our database, only 12 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 93.30% of SCHW stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings).

7. M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE:MTB): Operates as the holding company for M&T Bank and M&T Bank, National Association that provide commercial and retail banking services to individuals, corporations and other businesses, and institutions. Of the 270 store locations in our database, only 19 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 92.96% of MTB stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings).

8. Western Union Co. (NYSE:WU): Provides money transfer and payment services worldwide. Of the 203 store locations in our database, only 15 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 92.61% of WU stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings).

9. Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF): Engages in the design, manufacture, and retail of fine jewelry worldwide. Of the 142 store locations in our database, only 11 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 92.25% of TIF stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings).

10. Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (NASDAQ:PEET): Operates as a specialty coffee roaster and marketer of fresh roasted whole bean coffee and tea in the United States. Of the 266 store locations in our database, only 21 are located in areas of rising online job postings (i.e. 92.11% of PEET stores in our database are located in areas of falling online job postings).

For a free tool to compare the top four companies mentioned above, click here.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.