Statoil (NYSE:STO) has steadily clawed back some of its credit crises loses when it feel by more than 60%. The stock is now just over 30% its 2008 highs and it seems like this is a right price for the stock. On a trailing basis, the current valuations are just below the averages and analysts suggest the stock is overvalued. On a forward valuation basis the stock is overvalued as well. The stock does have a nice dividend yield of over 3%. Below is an in depth look at the valuation metrics and stock chart.
Valuation: Statoil's trailing 5 year valuation metrics suggest that the stock is undervalued as all of the metrics are below their respective 5 year averages. Statoil's current P/B ratio is 1.9 and it has averaged 2.2 over the past 5 years with a high of 3.4 and low of 1.4. Statoil's current P/S ratio is 0.8 and it has averaged 0.9 over the past 5 years with a high of 1.2 and low of 0.4. Statoil's current P/E ratio is 6.4 and it has averaged 14.4 over the past 5 years with a high of 35.8 and low of 6.1.
Price Target: The consensus price target for the analysts who follow Statoil is $28. That is upside of 1% from today's stock price of $27.69 and suggests that the stock is overvalued at these levels. This also suggests that the stock has limited upside and should be avoided at its current stock price.
Forward Valuation: Statoil is currently trading at about $28 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $2.83 next year, an earnings increase of 1% y/y, for a forward P/E ratio of 9.8. Taking a look at the company's publically traded comparisons will give us a better idea of the stock's relative valuation. Total (NYSE:TOT) is currently trading at about $55 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $7.42 next year, an earnings increase of 5% y/y, for a forward P/E ratio of 7.5.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is currently trading at about $87 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $8.94 next year, an earnings increase of 9% y/y, for a forward P/E ratio of 9.7. Eni (NYSE:E) is currently trading at about $49 a share with analysts expecting EPS of $5.91 next year, an earnings increase of 25% y/y, for a forward P/E ratio of 8.2. The mean forward P/E of Statoil's competitors is 8.5 which suggests that Statoil is overvalued relative to its publically traded competitors.
Earnings Estimates: Statoil has beat EPS estimates 2 times in the past 4 quarters. The company's EPS figures have come in between -10 cents and 83 cents from consensus estimates or about -13.3% to 115.3% from analyst estimates. The company has reported earnings that have differed from analyst estimates by a wide margin which suggests that the stock may experience upside from earnings surprises.
Price Action: Statoil is up 4.3% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up 10.5%. Looking at the technicals, the stock is currently above its 50 day moving average, which sits at $26.83 and above its 200 day moving average, which sits at $24.83.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.