Here are seven fully valued (note the short-seller euphemism) stocks that could possibly tank big time because of overvaluation. Investors who are long these names should at least consider selling calls and buying some puts in our view as the recent rising tide has lifted some pretty leaky boats along the way.
The internet-related industries are undoubtedly the bright spot of today's economy, but much of that growth is more than priced into many of the leading stocks in the internet industry. The following table shows just how expensive these stocks are. Keep in mind, over the past 100 years or so, the S&P 500(SPY) has averaged 14X peak earnings. Stocks also tend to trade for a small premium to book value -- obviously internet businesses have economic moats that are valuable so this type of analysis is less effective in estimating intrinsic value. Still, numbers are all we have to go by and these names look expensive based on the hard data. High beta names often correct the fastest in market downturns as well.
NOTE: I would use stop loss orders or call option protection if you plan to short these as directional trades.
|TTM PE||Forward PE||Price/Book|
We think these seven stocks are extremely expensive and deserve to correct a bit over time. That said, anything can happen in the short run. As John Maynard Keynes put it, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." For that reason consider using a limited loss/limited profit strategy like bear call spreads, bear put spreads, and calendar spreads when betting against these rocket-fueled momentum stocks. Like Chuck D said, "don't believe the hype."
While I am pretty bearish on most of these, I wouldn't short Zillow, Opentable, or Zynga here though I admit I would also not consider owning them on the long side anytime soon because I am not an aggressive growth investor.