Autodesk Jumps Post-Earnings: Is Bullish Outlook Confidence Or Folly?

Sentiment on Autodesk’s (ADSK) fiscal second quarter earnings turned around Friday morning. Thursday night, the stock slipped after the company announced results, despite reporting numbers and guidance that beat the Street. In an interview with Tech Trader Daily, CFO Al Castino said the company was seeing no impact from the housing sector’s woes, said the company was seeing across the board strength, with strong growth in particular in its 3D design products.

Friday morning, the Street commentary was most bullish. Bear Stearns analyst Philip Alling raised his rating on the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform, noting that the company is showing strong results in getting its resellers to focus on selling 3D software. He set a $52 price target on the stock.

“3D growth was strong with seat sales up 24 year-over-year and 3D revenue up 34% year-over-year despite concerns about disruption in the company’s reseller network as a result of changes to the incentive structure,” Alling wrote in a research note. “We believe that ADSK, after some turbulence, has stabilized the 3D growth trajectory.”

Alling notes that the company raised full year guidance for the second quarter in a row; he says that this is “particularly noteworthy given the tough environment elsewhere in the software design space as well as turmoil in the financial markets.”

Meanwhile, skeptics on Autodesk seemed almost offended by the company’s increased guidance given the uncertain economic outlook. Ross MacMillan, an analyst at Jefferies who has a Hold rating on the stock, wroteFriday that the increased outlook “either exudes confidence or spells folly.”

As of Friday, the Street was going with confidence rather than with folly.

Autodesk closed Friday at $44.90.

ADSK 1-yr chart