The Transportation Fuel of the Future

For macro reasons, I think that the next generation liquid fuels may be cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel or renewable diesel from algae.

But those fuels will increasingly be sharing the roads with the long term transportation fuel of the future: electricity from renewable sources, especially wind. Wind will be important for electric transportation and electric transportation will be important for wind, because when you're already going to be charging batteries, you may as well do it when the electricity is cheap, which will be when the wind is blowing . . .

Plug-in hybrid vehicles [PHEVs] neatly solve the main barrier to getting increasing amounts of wind on the grid: the fact that it often blows in the middle of the night, when electricity demand is lowest (and when PHEVs would be charging), and wind solves one problem for the long term future of PHEVs: where do we get an abundant source of inexpensive electric generation for powering our vehicles?

What's the missing link? Batteries that are light have a long recharge life, and can sustain a long series of quick, deep discharge cycles without significant degradation. And don't catch fire. Combined with a better control system, and perhaps ultracapacitors.

In one sense, current battery shortcomings don't matter: rising oil prices will make even today's batteries practical as an alternative to $10 gasoline . . . we just don't know when that $10 gas price will hit us. When it does, more and more battery types will be practical in PHEVs. A battery pack ready for a PHEV is a moving target . . . but this is one moving target that gets closer every time the oil price increases.

In the second installment of my Energy Tech Stocks interview with Bill Paul, he talks about my battery technology "picks," which aren't so much as a representative cross section of the sector. I'm currently working on differentiating the good from the bad; I just set up a phone conference with a couple of battery industry insiders so I can get their perspectives on which battery companies have well run research operations, as well as which companies will be able to deliver the volume of batteries we're going to need as we shift our transportation system away from a reliance on liquid fuels and towards a greater reliance on electricity.

Watch this space for a more in-depth look into the advanced battery industry in a few weeks.

One other thing in Bill's article: I don't think General Motors Corporation (GM) "gets it" when it comes to peak oil. That's because of its continued insistence that E85 is a valid way to get from here to energy independence. Earth to GM: there isn't enough feedstock to make that much ethanol. Energy efficiency must come first. Nice talk about the Volt, but I won't believe it until you stop blathering about ethanol.

Comments

[Efrain Rojas:]

I agree that there probably is not enough ethanol capacity in the US to significantly curb oil consumption, however South America has the undeveloped capacity to greatly enhance the worlds supply of ethanol at a cost significantly below current petroleum costs. If they displace their own petroleum consumption with ethanol and don't export a single drop, it would have the net effect of increasing the amount of petroleum available to the rest of the world. Brazil is obviously the ethanol powerhouse and hopefully they can set a precedent the rest of Latin America will follow.

If we relax the import tariffs on foreign ethanol, it would be a world changing event. If we have to import foreign energy resources, I'd rather those imports come from Latin America rather than the middle east or a newly emboldened Russia.

2007 Aug 22 01:43 PM

[nasdaq99:]

there is only one battery capable of launching the PHEV/EV age today. It is Altairs(ALTI) Nanosafe. It is capable of:

1)95mph
2)130 miles total range
3) 10 minute recharge
4) Greater than 25000 deep discharge cycles & counting
5) 2nd generation battery coming with 250 mile range
6) Due to chemistry it DOES NOT OVERHEAT. PERIOD.

2007 Aug 22 02:07 PM

[fg144331:]

I did read the website, WOW interesting and I'm sure will sell like hotcakes IF
the price isn't over the roof.

2007 Aug 23 01:03 PM

[Greg Pinelli:]

There are any number of issues with So. America exporting significant amounts of ethanol to the United States...the two most obvious being incredible environmental issues surrounding vast new sugar cane fields and the huge hurdle of transport and distribution...to the best of my understanding none of the current pipelines used for transporting gas or oil are adequate for ethanol.
Also...whatever can be said concerning sugar based ethanol is even more applicable to cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel...the EROEI is horrible! Those things may fill niche markets where production...refining and distribution are geographically near. Very likely they'll amount to giant rat holes we toss down invaluable resources like water and topsoil.

2007 Aug 22 07:01 PM

[Paul Meisel:]

GM is pushing E85 because it is, while imperfect and not sustainable long term, the only consumer-visible practical alternative available RIGHT NOW. When you advertise to the consumer you have to have something that you can bring to market at a potentially reasonable price immediately. The automakers have been doing R&D on alternatives for over 30 years, but why buy ads to push something that you can't sell? It won't get you any sales, and the only image it will get you is "stupid".

Economic feasibility is the issue with all alternative energy sources.

2007 Aug 23 08:30 PM