What's Behind IncrediMail's Sudden Surge?

| About: Perion Network (PERI)

On Wednesday, Smallcap Investor had an interesting post on IncrediMail (MAIL) and the big spike up of 17% that the stock had on Tuesday. Smallcap Investor spoke with executive vice president Jeff Holzmann, and he said that he thinks the stock’s surge can be attributed to the company’s robust earnings reported on August 14. “Because we’re a small company, it takes a while for our stock to get on investors’ radar screens,” said Holzmann. “There’s a bit of a lag effect.”


Wouldn’t it be better to say that he just doesn't know of any specific reason for the stock move? From the earnings release through this past Monday the stock actually dropped 20%. Then, the theory goes, a week after earnings, suddenly radar screens started flashing that IncrediMail had good earnings, and investors pushed up the price.

This sounds a little far-fetched, to me.

I have another possibility. A well-known newsletter (which will remain nameless), blasted an email out over this past weekend called: “The Next Google’s In: Israel,” and went on to describe a company that sure sounds like IncrediMail without mentioning it by name.

Our tiny Tel-Aviv company trades on the Nasdaq at around $7 today, down from $10 after the recent sub-prime panic, but up from $4 about a year ago.

The business model is now advertising-driven, as well as subscription-based. Ad revenue is growing 7-fold over last year. In short, our Israeli company makes your Facebook world more personal, more secure, easier to use, and more intuitive.


I’d be surprised if they didn’t, but I’d be just as glad if Facebook’s business drove our $7 stock to $100, and simply gave us that 400% profit we all missed out on in Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).

Sounds like IncrediMail to me. Even more, it sure sounds like Zack Miller’s post of a few weeks ago vis-a-vis Facebook. In fact Zack’s scoop about potential suitors for IncrediMail was picked up by Reuters, who asked the company, and the company actually confirmed that they have been approached by many firms.

Way to go Zack! Congrats on the new baby, and way to go on the IncrediMail scoop.

MAIL 1-yr chart:

MAIL 1-yr chart

Disclosure: The author has no position in MAIL as of August 23, 2007.