Estimating the Odds of a Recession

Aug.24.07 | About: SPDR S&P (SPY)

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

We're pretty sure that the odds of a recession are 50/50.

We're not quoting anybody there, but it serves as an example of the type of commentary we have been reading and hearing in recent days.  So we went to the futures markets on Intrade, as we have done in the past, to see what some actual money thinks about the odds of a recession in '07 and '08.  Intrade's definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.  The contract for an '07 recession (negative growth in the 3rd and 4th quarter) currently puts the odds at 7%, and the contract for an '08 recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth at any time in '08) currently puts the odds at 32%.

click to enlarge
recession 07

recession 08