Here is a short overview of the recent developments in gold and silver during the week of March 19th to 23rd and an outlook for the week of March 26th to 30th; this includes a short description of the main news items, decisions and events that may have affected metals traders during last week. In this analysis I use charts and a fundamental analysis to examine how if at all last week's events, decisions and financial reports affected the path of gold and consequently may also affect the direction of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).
During last week the flash estimates of China and Europe's manufacturing PMI were released and didn't look well. This news may have pulled down gold and silver. The protests in India regarding the new tax on gold didn't help the gold as well.
On the other hand there were several U.S reports about the real estate market that didn't show progress including the decline in new home sales, existing home sales, and a 1.1% decrease in housing starts during last month. All these report may have weakened the USD mainly against the Euro and consequently may have helped precious metals to remain high.
Reviewing some of the main reports, events, decisions and news items to be published during the upcoming week:
U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for February 2012; in the recent report the pending home sales index rose by 2% compared with the previous month's index. These data are another indicator for the developments in America's real estate market; based on last week's results on housing sales (new and existing) the pending sales may also decline. In such a case US dollar may weaken.
Final U.S GDP 4Q 2011 Estimate: This will be the final estimate of U.S's fourth quarter 2011 real GDP growth. In the recent estimate the U.S GDP in the fourth quarter rose by 3%; in the 3Q2011 the GDP growth rate was 1.8%, compared with 1.3% increase at 2Q 2011. This shows a slight increase in the growth rate for the US's GDP. The current expectations are that the growth rate in the fourth quarter will remain high. if there will be a sharp shift in this estimate it could also affect the path of not only the US dollar but also commodities.
U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Update: initial claims decreased to 348,000 claims for the week ending on March 17th; the number of insured unemployment declined by 9 thousand to 3,352 thousand during the week of March 10th; the upcoming weekly update may affect the direction of the US dollar and consequently prices of commodities.