Energy Stocks Poised for Stronger Advance

Approaching the August vacation period and considering what has happened since the same time a year ago, we see opportunity to invest in buy recommendations below recently-reached higher prices including Anadarko (APC), PetroChina (PTR) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).

Masking more noticeable interim action, point-to-point industry price trends moved surprisingly little with one-year refining crack up 5%, six-year natural gas down 3% and six-year oil down 6% from August 14, 2006 to August 10, 2007.

The one-third of covered stocks with the highest McDep Ratios underperformed by scoring an average standardized levered total return of 4% for the same period while buy recommendations scored an average 14%.

As a whole our stocks have had a relative pause for the past twelve months and are ready for a stronger advance, we believe. Always with a wary eye on risk, we recommend increasing positions to adjustable benchmarks that encourage adding shares during declines and subtracting during strong advances.