Changes in the Consumer PC Market: Great News For Apple, Ominous For Dell

Back in June, a ChangeWave consumer survey saw an explosive Apple (AAPL) “halo effect” on the way for Mac computer sales – due, in part, to all of the advance publicity and hype surrounding the release of the iPhone.

At that time it appeared as though there was a transformational shift taking place in the consumer PC marketplace Well, the findings of our newest consumer survey are in and they show the enormous impact of that transformational shift. Moreover, the news is great for Apple and ominous for Dell.

A total of 3,665 ChangeWave Alliance members participated in the current survey, conducted August 1-7, 2007.

We began by asking those who bought a computer in the past 90 days to tell us which manufacturer they had bought it from. We then asked those planning to buy a computer in the next 90 days which manufacturer they’d be buying from.

Past 90 Days: A Mac Laptop Attack

In an ongoing alteration of the consumer PC landscape, Apple laptop sales have surged to a new all-time high over the past 90 days – up from 12% in June to 17% currently – an unprecedented 5-point move.

Apple desktop sales (7%; down 1-pt) have been solid but unspectacular during that same time period.

Going Forward

We also looked at planned Apple Mac purchases over the next 90 days, and they reveal more of the same ahead for Apple. A total of 28% of respondents who plan to purchase a laptop say they’ll get a Mac – mirroring the brisk momentum we saw back in June. Another 23% say they’ll buy an Apple desktop – up 1-point from the previous survey

“These results are great news for Apple,” says Toby Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing. “They serve as powerful evidence that the aforementioned ‘halo effect’ is indeed translating into real world Mac computer sales for Steve Jobs and company,”

A Dell (DELL) Head Fake?

If the news for Apple can be described as great, then the news for Dell would certainly be described as ominous. After a surprising uptick for the box maker in our June survey, Dell’s market share is once again taking a huge hit.

Only 30% of purchasers say they bought a Dell desktop in the past 90 days. This represents a 7-pt drop for Dell since June – down to the second lowest percentage it’s recorded for desktops in a ChangeWave survey. Similarly, Dell laptop purchases (24%) have fallen 4-pts to a new all time low.

What about Dell’s outlook for the next 90 days? That too appears troubled. Our survey results show planned desktop purchases (31%) falling 5-pts to a new all-time low. The only potential bright spot for Dell is in its planned laptop purchases (29%), which have inched up 1-pt since June – although they too are near a record low.

It is important to note that most of Dell’s revenue comes from corporate PC sales. In an upcoming article we’ll present the results of our latest corporate IT purchasing survey – currently in the field – which will shed light on whether Dell is gaining or losing in the all-important corporate marketplace.

Hewlett-Packard – Hanging in There

Another prominent PC maker worthy of mention here is Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), whose desktop share appears quite stable among consumers. A total of 26% who purchased a desktop over the last 90 days say they bought an H-P – up 1-point from June. After peaking in our June survey, however, H-P laptop purchases (25%; down 2-pts) have edged back slightly.

In a positive sign for H-P going forward, the findings shows a big 5-point jump in planned H-P desktop purchases for the next 90 days (28%). In a more mixed result, H-P laptop purchases going forward (25%; down 3-pts) have pulled back somewhat from their previous all-time highs.

Overall, these are positive consumer results for Hewlett-Packard. H-P desktop sales are up going forward and while laptops have come back slightly off their June highs – most likely due, in part, to increasing competition from Apple – they nonetheless appear relatively healthy.

And the Winner Is?

Perhaps the most impressive finding for Apple in this survey is its outstanding customer satisfaction rating. A whopping 86% of those who bought an Apple computer over past 90 days report being Very Satisfied with their purchase (another 7% Somewhat Satisfied) – by far the highest of any manufacturer.

On the flipside, Dell is dead last among PC makers when it comes to customer satisfaction. In fact, only 44% of those who bought a Dell over the past 90 days report being Very Satisfied with their purchase, down 9-pts since June.

The above chart shows the percentage of respondents who say they are Very Satisfied with the computer they bought over the past 90 days, broken out by manufacturer. Note the difference between Dell’s satisfaction rating and the rest of the major manufacturers. Also note how far out front Apple is from the rest.

Once again – more great news for Apple; more ominous news for Dell.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 10,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on the ChangeWave Alliance, or if you are interested in joining, please click here.

Comments

[Ralph F:]

Dell's results, reported after close today, were a lot better than this article suggested, no?

2007 Aug 30 05:18 PM