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Research In Motion (RIMM) favors the short side of its post-earnings trade tonight, regardless of a decline or gain in its earnings-driven after-hours movement.

In the data we've collected over eight years, RIM has seen earnings-driven after-hours declines following 19 quarterly reports. Of those trades, the stock recorded a deeper move into the red in the following day's regular session in 14 events, or 74% of the time. In the other five events the stock cut or reversed its after-hours decline the following day. A solid short play on any drop tonight.

On the upside, RIM has recorded an after-hours gain following an earnings event in 13 quarters, and in five events the stock moved more aggressively to the upside the next day. In two plus-side moves the stock held the same after-hours gain into the next-day's close, and in the six other quarters the stock narrowed its evening move. With the stock consistently struggling to add to its evening gains in next-day action more risk tolerant shorts may want to eye any upside ceilings that develop tonight.

RIM is due with its Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.81 per share on revenue of $4.53 billion.

Here's the long-term history:

  • On Dec. 15, 2011, RIM dropped 7.4% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations but also setting its Q4 guidance below Street estimates. The stock headed even lower the next day, closing the Dec. 16 regular session down 11.1%.
  • On Sept. 15, 2011, RIM cratered 18.5% in evening trade after missing Q2 expectations and setting its Q3 guidance mostly in-line with estimates. The stock added slightly to its downside the next day, closing the Sept. 16 regular session off 19%.
  • On June 16, 2011, RIM tumbled 13.8% in after-hours trade after missing Q1 revenue estimates, approving a stock buyback, and setting its guidance below expectations. The stock was hammered lower the following day, closing the June 17 regular session down 21.4%.
  • On March 24, 2011, RIM slumped 10.6% in after-hours action after missing Q4 revenue estimates and setting its Q1 outlook mostly below the Street view. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the March 25 regular session down 11.2%.
  • On Dec. 16, 2010, RIM gained 2.3% in evening trade after beating Wall Street's Q2 expectations. The stock cut its upside the following day, closing the Dec. 17 regular session up 1.6%.
  • On Sept. 16, 2010, RIM advanced 3% in night trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost most of its gains the following day, closing the Sept. 17 regular session up a modest 0.5%.
  • On June 24, 2010, RIM shed 4.4% in evening trade after missing Q1 revenue expectations, beating on earnings, and setting mixed guidance. The stock was punched lower the following day, closing the June 25 regular session down 10.8%.
  • On March 31, 2010, RIM declined 3.8% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 expectations and setting mixed guidance. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, closing the April 1 regular session down 7.3%.
  • On Dec. 17, 2009, RIM charged 12.2% higher in evening action on the back of better-than-expected results and guidance. The issue saw some of its gain cut back the next day, closing the Dec. 18 regular session up 10.3%.
  • On Sept. 24, 2009, RIM tumbled 11.5% in the after-hours session after missing revenue expectations and setting its guidance below the Street view. The stock was hammered lower in the following regular session, ending the Sept. 25 trade down 17%.
  • On June 18, 2009, RIM slipped 0.4% in after-hours trade after beating earnings expectations, meeting on revenue, and setting guidance that straddled the Street view. The stock continued to head lower the following day, closing the June 19 regular session down 4.9%.
  • On April 2, 2009, RIM charged 22.5% higher in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It narrowed its upside slightly the following day, ending the April 3 regular session up 20.7%.
  • On Dec. 18, 2008, RIM edged up 0.4% in after-hours trade after topping Street estimates and setting its guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock soared higher the next day, rising 11.4% by the closing bell on Dec. 19.
  • On Sept. 25, 2008, RIM declined 19% in after-hours trade after missing earnings expectations and setting weaker-than-expected guidance. The stock tumbled further the following day, closing the Sept. 26 regular session down 27.5%.
  • On June 25, 2008, RIM declined 7.8% in evening trade after missing earnings expectations and setting weaker-than-expected guidance. The stock tumbled deeper in the red the next day, closing with a 13.2% decline.
  • On April 2, 2008, RIM firmed 4.2% in night trade after topping Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 guidance above the then-current Street view. The stock pushed higher the next day, closing out the April 3 regular session up 5.8%.
  • On Dec. 20, 2007, RIM surged 11.4% in after-hours trade after beating on Q3 expectations and setting its Q4 outlook above the Street view. The stock saw its gains slip just a bit in the Dec. 21 regular session, ending the day up 10.8%.
  • On Oct. 4, 2007, RIM fell 1.7% during evening trading after beating with Q2 results and guiding above. The stock rebounded to gain 12.7% the next day.
  • On June 28, 2007, RIM jumped 16.4% in after hours when the company easily topped Q1 estimates and set a stock split. Shares rose further the following day to end the regular session up 20.7%.
  • On April 11, 2007, the stock fell 6.6% in night trading after the company missed with Q1 sales but topped with EPS. The loss increased to 8.1% the next day.
  • On Dec. 21, 2006, RIM jumped 5.7% in after-hours when the company beat Q3 estimates. However, shares couldn't muster the strength to hold onto those gains and slipped into the red the next day. It closed the following day?s regular session down 2.7%.
  • On Sept. 28, 2006, shares surged 19.3% in the evening hours after the company beat with preliminary Q2 figures and offered an optimistic view for Q3. The stock logged a matching 19.3% gain the next day as well.
  • On June 29, 2006, RIM jumped 5.7% in evening trade after topping Q1 estimates and guiding Q2 in line with expectations. The shares held those gains the next day, ending up 5.7%.
  • On April 6, 2006, RIM dropped 4.5% in after hours when the company missed Q4 estimates and guided Q1 below Street views. The shares fell more the following day, ending the regular session down 5.4%.
  • On December 21, 2005, RIM gained 6.3% in night trade after beating Q3 expectations and forecasting Q4 EPS above Street views. The shares rallied further the next day, jumping 10.5% in regular-hours trade.
  • On Sept. 28, 2005 RIM slimmed down 3.6% in evening trade after the company topped analysts' expectations and guided mostly in-line. Sellers added tot he downside on Sept. 29, sending the stock to a 9.3% decline by the closing bell.

RIM fell 4.6% on the night of June 29, 2005, after besting the Street view on Q1 results and guiding for Q2. It narrowed its downside in the June 30 regular session, closing down 2.8%.

On April 5, 2005 RIM tumbled 5.8% in evening trade after the company missed revenue expectations. The stock saw the bulk of the downside evaporate on April 6 as RIM closed the bell-to-bell session down a mere 1.9%.

RIM slid 4.1% in the Dec. 21, 2004 after-hours session after the company beat expectations but set its forward quarterly sales view below Street estimates. The stock slightly cut its downside the next day, closing bell-to-bell trade off 4%.

RIM slid 3.7% the night of Sept. 30, 2004 after the company reported better-than-expected results but set its revenue range that at the low end could miss Street estimates. The stock cut its losses in next day trade, however, ending the Oct. 1 regular session down 3.3%.

Prior to the Sept. 30-Oct. 1 event, RIM had seen wider next-day moves following its last two after-hours earnings reports.

Back on June 29, 2004 RIM jumped 11.2% in after-hours trade following better-than-expected results and guidance. It closed the June 30 regular session up a more aggressive 15.2%.

On April 7, 2004 RIM dipped 2% in after-hours trade after beating expectations and hiking its outlook. The stock closed the following day's bell-to-bell trade down 2.3%.

Source: Shorts Due To Circle RIM Shares In The Wake Of After-Hours Earnings Report