Commodities had another tough day yesterday. Oil and basic materials led the market lower, and our personal portfolio took a hit as many winners became losers. We also saw some of our plays fall through support and others fall into our buying range. At this point we are torn. Torn because we do not want to rush in prematurely, and we would also not want to miss out on these great prices. So since we did have opportunities to stockpile cash from some trades we will look to deploy this slowly.
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) is now in the buy zone, however it did break through $30/share, which has up until now served as a solid base for the shares. We really wanted to buy the January 2013 call options, but will look at the shares for a trade until those options do come available. We almost purchased shares yesterday as it appeared to base, but figured we would at least wait until today to make a decision after the jobs numbers.
Sandridge Energy (SD) is back into our buying range, and it is one we made good money off of when it had rumors of an impending buyout surface the day we said to purchase shares. It was a great call, it was a lucky call, but it was the right call to sell on the heels of that gift. Now with shares below the $8/share level, we find ourselves interested once again -- if for nothing other than a trade.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is one of a handful of companies getting pressed by investors to disclose the amount of natural gas that they are flaring. We would argue that these are socialistic investors, as this serves no business purpose other than to enrage environmentalists and others. The argument for releasing these figures we think is weak, and will cause far more harm than good. Nevertheless it is news and they are investors so it is something to watch. The entire story can be read here.
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) has generated many emails over the past few days, and the question has been when we are getting back in. At this point we do not know, and we used the stops in order to protect gains. Long-term we like the shares, but we figured it would go lower if it reached the stops and that has become the reality. We will let this situation play out and allow us to get a handle on it before moving back in. Currently we see a few better buys out there and would rather allocate capital towards those plays at this time.
Gold & Silver
Gold is trading lower today, falling below the $1660/ounce level. Not a big surprise as we suspected the bears would have the firepower to put an end to the bulls coming back into the market. Short-term trading here should not be done, but long-term is probably safe. We would prefer owning via physical means simply to avoid the pitfalls of futures and the hassle of the various funds traded and their tax consequences. It is simply safer and simpler to do so.
Silver also finds itself lower this morning and has just broken through the $32/ounce level, so it too is finding the bears a tough adversary. Silver needs good economic news and the China news story regarding growth to turn more positive rather than the current negative commentary inundating the market.
Molycorp (MCP) gave up all of its early gains, which were follow through from the China news the day before. The stock still finished strong compared to the rest of the basic materials stocks, so today could be important as we will see if the shares can maintain their momentum and outperform the rest of the commodities arena.