August Same-Store Sales Roundup

Most retailers reported their August same-store sales Thursday. Collectively the month, during which retailers on average beat analyst estimates by 1.0%, was a welcome change from July, when retailers missed forecasts by an average of 1.5% and almost 75% of retailers posted below-estimate sales gains. On average, same-store sales were up 2.4% from the year ago period, while total sales climbed 6.2% year-over-year. Saks and Zumiez nearly doubled analyst estimates, the latter posting an impressive 39.7% total sales gain. Other upside notables included Pacific Sunwear (9.6% vs. 1.8%) and Wal-Mart's surprising 3.0% same-store sales jump; analysts expected a milder 1.5%. Decliners included Chico's FAS and Gottschalks. Much-watched Costco posted a 2.0% same-store sales gain, well below the 5.6% analysts forecasted.

August's numbers were bolstered by a later-than-ususal back-to-school season that saw some July sales bumped into August, calling into question whether retailers can sustain August gains into the fall months. Most economists agree tighter credit and falling housing prices are likely to make a mark on consumer spending. "The middle-market consumer can still afford to shop, but there still are fears stemming from the mortgage market," said one analyst.

In the following table, arrows indicate whether a retailer beat (up), missed (down) or was in line with analyst expectations. Analyst estimates are based on Reuters and Thomson surveys.

Sources: Reuters, Dow Jones I, II,

Commentary: July Same-Store Sales Roundup • June Same-Store Sales Roundup • May Same-Store Sales Roundup • April Same-Store Sales Roundup

Stocks/ETFs to watch: ANF, ARO, AEO, ANN, BEBE, BKE, CACH, CTR, CHS, PLCE, CBK, DEBS, DBRN, GPS, HOTT, JOSB, LTD, MWRK, PSUN, ROST, SSI, SMRT, TJX, URGI, WTSLA, WLSN, ZUMZ, BONT, DDS, GOT, KSS, M, JWN, JCP, SKS, DUCK, TGT, WMT, CVS, LDG, RAD, WAG, HVT, SHRP, FCPO, FDO, FRED, BJ, COST, CULS, PSMT

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Comments

[brownsteve]

Isn't it about time that people in the financial media stop giving respect to the "estimates" guessing game? It's bad enough when applied to quarterly earnings, but becomes absolutely ridiculous applied to monthly sales reports.

Isn't it obvious that what matters is the change from the comparable period (or the monthly number as part of a pattern of monthly numbers for that company) or how the sales report in itself or as part of a pattern compares to that of peers, not even beginning to consider the relative impact of markdowns on the sales numbers and their implications for earnings, not what analysts estimate, with something like a 15% accuracy record.

It is mindboggling that reviews of analyst ratings (most based on predicted earnings changes) over the last several years have found
that the most rewarding buys are those earmarked "sell" by the analysts, the net best returns come from recommended "holds," and the worst from recommended "buys."

This same skill when applied to same store sales finds that the list above comes close enough to the reported comp to be considered accurate in predicting the number (whatever that number is worth in isolation) for by my reckoning six (JWN, TJX, LTD, BJ, FDO and FRED), or 15%, of the 40 companies for which estimates were made.

I've followed specialty retail, especially apparel, sporting goods and variety, closely for the last nine years, and since whenever this "estimating" disease took hold this kind of whistling-oin-the-wind inaccuracy has been the norm.

I just don't get it.

But this reference to variation from a "consensus" estimate is now a virtually standard reference in the lead of earnings or comp-sales related news stories throughout the financial media.

And it is meaningless in relation to a company's prospects.

To me it seems to be merely a fast shuffle creating more trading commissions and profits for brokers and trading firms.