A Careful Look At The Recession Scare

The fundamental question in buying stocks is the expected earnings (or cash flow, depending upon the sector) compared to the stock price. One compares this to alternative choices like bonds or real estate or foreign markets. On a risk-adjusted basis, one's asset allocation should favor the undervalued asset classes.

We believe that U.S. equities, despite a multi-year, double-digit profit expansion, and some market reaction, still reflect intense investor skepticism about future earnings. The biggest cloud over the earnings picture is the continuing (and so far incorrect) forecast of a recession by bearish pundits, mostly non-economists.

Background

The recession scare has power for three reasons:

1. The argument that problems in housing and credit markets will spill over into the general economy is eminently reasonable and generally understood.
2. Most market participants have memories of the 2000 bubble era. They connect the recession, which was actually quite mild, with a massive decline in stocks.
3. Investors and traders alike have no fundamental valuation measure. Many of them have calibrated their measures to the last few years, the period of skepticism. They do not realize that the stock decline in 2000 was mostly the result of excessive valuation, not the recession.

Because this is the key market concern, every investor should be attuned to the impact of housing problems and illiquidity in the credit markets. The most bearish pundits have already called "Game Over" since stocks declined last month as problems appeared.

The Insightful Method

We recommend a more careful look, considering many sources and all of the evidence. The distinction is not between those who see a housing/credit problem and those who do not. The difference is one of assessing the magnitude of the effects. The most bearish analysts see a series of dominoes falling over with an inevitable conclusion.

Most economists instead look for a change in effect at the margin. Potential home buyers are not completely disqualified, for example. They qualify for loans at lower levels, shifting the demand curve for housing. Prices will fall to clear supply -- at some point. Those with an appreciation for politics and public policy (like us) understand that there will be various responses to help families avoid foreclosures. Such proposals are emerging. The governmental wheels grind slowly, but the story will play out over months, not weeks.

The domino theory is easier to understand, and has a powerful influence on investors.

We do not forecast recession probabilities. Instead, we choose to look for expert viewpoints from the best sources. Our role is the guide to the consumer of forecasts, helping readers to see the strength and weaknesses of various research approaches.

A Survey of Opinion

Let us consider several informed sources.

• The Fed. The Fed Chairman and individual members speak out. Today's comments by William Poole indicate recognition of higher recession chances, without any clear evidence so far. The Beige Book, anecdotal evidence from all of the Districts, also shows little spillover to the general economy -- so far. Frederic Mishkin's Jackson Hole Symposium paper also reflects optimism about the housing effects. It is important to know what the Fed members are thinking.
• Economists. Economic forecasts have all deducted something from GDP for housing effects for the last year or so. Economists are aware of the potential, and adjust accordingly. We cannot cite everyone, but here are two excellent sources:
  • David Malpass, frequently cited by "A Dash" as having the best feel for the economy over the last several years, has significantly lowered his outlook. He has raised his recession odds to 35%, but still emphasizes that a softer landing is likely. He forecasts softer growth in Q1 08, an out-of-consensus viewpoint.
  • Econobrowser, an excellent economics site that we read daily (and now added to our list of recommended blogs) covers the key issues extensively. James D. Hamilton and Menzie Chinn analyze the current economic outlook and reflect the housing concerns quite aggressively. While it is a long article, we recommend that readers look at Hamilton's comments at the recent Jackson Hole symposium.
• Experts on credit markets. David Merkel continues his excellent contributions to our understanding with an article on stress in credit markets. A key point is his observation that there will --once again, eventually -- be a market for structured finance. We see this conclusion as quite important. There is a long-term force to diversify lending risk through securities, making homes available to more people. Mistakes have been made, but the concept will survive. The timing is important.
• Experts on lending. A key to whether dominoes fall is the reaction by those in a position to influence the outcome. The key participants include the President, the Fed, creditors holding current mortgage obligations, and (eventually) candidates for the Presidency. The candidate influence may be felt well before the election takes place. Here are two great perspectives on how the mortgage issues may play out:
  • Econobrowser discusses various policy reactions to the mortgage problem.
  • Matthew Padilla at the Mortgage Insider (added to our list of recommended sites) has the ability to discover the nuts and bolts of the process. His article on the incentives for lenders to work out loans, and how they can do this, is a must-read.

Conclusion

The housing and credit problems remain foremost for traders. The market is reacting to worries and looking for Fed action that may not come -- at least not in the way expected by many.

The long-anticipated effects on personal consumption have yet to materialize. This, and business investment, are crucial to earnings and stock performance. The best source is Michael Thompson, of Thomson Financial, the experts on earnings forecasts. Skeptics on the market should view his interview on CNBC where he highlights business capex trends and earnings forecasts. These are the actual current numbers, and a good test for the bearish predictions. Readers should compare the data cited to what they see from those forecasting a recession.

The opportunities for investing always relate to fear and greed. Some observers point to current stock prices, comparing them to the bubble era, and then issue warnings. In fact, the earnings and economic potential is much better than it was at that time. Having said this, it may still be a rough ride for stocks if the Fed does not comply with market expectations. Traders all seem to think that they know more than the Fed and their economists.

The problem is that the Fed looks at economic data in the way we have laid it out in this article. Market participants look at dominoes. This is both the near-term risk and the longer-term opportunity.

Comments

[nScout:]

It is not because an event happens at the margin that it is without heavy consequence and the domino theory has been proved right for complex systems similar to the economy eg. the butterfly effect. By any measure and the present crisis is one, the US economy is based on excessive consumer credit (the savings rate is 0 to negative), fueled by excessive money creation easily absorbing higher interest rates and, illusory lending practices by a bloated financial sector. This shows in the consistently negative US trade balance as the US is producing much less than it consumes. Such behaviors inevitably devalue the US dollar. The ability of US firms to keep making profits thus depends on foreign holders of US dollars accepting ever more inflated dollars. They should be better off holding stronger currencies, that are based, not on the availability of the next refinancing, but on real economic exchanges. Stronger currencies are becoming particularly important now that countries begin to vie for limited natural resources. So the present crisis could very well mark the start of declining earnings at US companies.

2007 Sep 07 06:00 AM

[goatfarmer:]

"The ability of US firms to keep making profits thus depends on foreign holders of US dollars accepting ever more inflated dollars." Which they will continue to do while the US has the biggest gun.

2007 Sep 08 11:12 PM

[nScout:]

To Goatfarmer. Could you explain how guns can force countries to accept a currency? The US do not want to kill their customers, do they? And this "biggest gun" has proven to be most ineffective and burdensome to solve conflicts in a palatable way to its user, "The hammer to smash a fly"...

2007 Sep 12 05:20 AM

[HillBilly H...:]

Candide, why not just move aboard your sailboat, & cruise away? We all have a saying offshore, "Wonder what the rich people are doing today?" ie: stuck in their BMW gridlock traffic jam commutes, stressful robot corporate work cubes, & frenzied cattle-herding skymiles from a concrete jungle zoo, only to arrive home temporarily to discover time is more valuable than money. Neocons lost without a clue. I'll race ya back to Polynesia ~~~~~_/)~~~_/)~~>

2007 Sep 29 07:33 PM

[HillBilly H...:]

Although goat farming does have it's HOT & AWESOME advantages, & may suit you better Candide, my advice is to invest in Billy goat bellies & more kids. In that case, I'd go to the island of Dominica where it's appreciated more, & closer to Caribbean island hopping for genuine solitude, serenity, & peace of mind. I'd rather worry about falling coconuts in Antigua, St Lucia, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Barbados & Puerto Rico nearby, as the "Butterfly effect" there with true freedom to smile more is magnificent!

2007 Sep 29 08:01 PM