iPod Update

Between the office move and the markets lately, I didn't get a chance to address the new iPods/iPhone. Let's do that now. Back in January, I noted why I did not think the iPhone would cannibalize the iPod: Apple (AAPL) would migrate the touchscreen downstream to the smaller and non iPhone "pods."

Nine months ago, I noted it was only a matter of time before Apple would bring out a touchscreen (non-phone) iPod.

Well, that came to pass.

As to the rest, I got some of the new products, prices and capacities right. I got some aspects wrong. Back in January, I estimated what Apple's products and price points might look like.

Here is a comparison with those forecast and the actual products:

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Product	Pricepoint	Actual Product	Actual Pricepoint
Apple iPhone 10/5 GB	$499/439	16 GB	$399
iPod touchscreen* 100/60 GB	$379/329	iPod touch 16/8 GB	$399/299
iPod "Classic" 80/30 GB	$279/229	iPod Classic 160/80 GB	$349/249
iPod Nano 10/5 GB	$199/139	iPod Video Nano 8/4 GB	$199/149
Shuffle 1 GB	$59	Shuffle 1 GB	$79

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First, it turns out that my estimate of 12-18 months was off -- it only took nine months. Second, I wildly under-estimated the capacity of the classic iPods. Third, I wildly over-estimated the capacity of all the flash based iPods and iPhones.

But I did get many of the products, names and pricing pretty darned close.

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The WSJ has an interesting history of all the iPods, and Apple's stock price:
click to enlarge

BTW, if you want to have a laugh, go to Amazon and search for the existing iPods -- an 80 Gig iPod is $349...

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UPDATE:
To Amazon's credit, any search for iPod also includes this result: New iPods.

click to enlarge