2 Stocks To Trade, And What's Next For The Market

by: David Ristau

Market Recap: The market struggled on Thursday but battled back all afternoon, which was a great sign for the market, leading into a Friday frenzy of data that we discuss below. The market was weighed by GDP that came in at expectations combined with worse than expected jobless claims. Further, Europe was very weak after a slate of confidence reports: Industrial, consumer, business data came in weaker than expected for the eurozone. The market stopped its fall after Europe's close and charged higher for the rest of the day.

We believe we are setting up for a big move tomorrow. We have potential upside for window dressing and good data, but it's not for sure. One thing we are definitely going to see is a big move tomorrow. Here are two trades for the market moving forward.

Unknown ObjectTwo Trades

Here is what we like to trade for both directions. Nordstrom (JWN) and Ultra ProShares Financials 3x (FAS). We are bullish JWN right now. The company made a nice dip today to its 20-day MA where we got involved after opening up higher from a Goldman Sachs upgrade to Buy. We like that upgrade as a catalyst, and we used the technical dip to support to buy. The company is a solid one that is in a nice uptrend. The CCI dipped to 50 today, which has been a solid buy point all year. The company now looks headed higher as it bucked the market trend, and we believe a move to 56 tomorrow is likely.

Right now, we believe the market is at an inflection point, and we like doing the reverse iron condor on FAS. The reverse iron condor is an OTM bull call spread and OTM bear put spread. You are basically betting the market is going to move. Right now, we can do an exciting 109/110 bull call spread with 103/102 bear put spread for combined 0.75 premium for Apr20. If FAS closes above 110 or below 102 on Apr20 we make 1.00 on the respective side, and we make 33%. We believe that FAS is going to make a pretty solid move moving forward, and we are looking at opening positions that make money on volatility because the market seems to be priming for a move.

Tomorrow's Outlook

The market looks set to be preparing for a move on some important data tomorrow including personal income, personal spending, Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These reports plus the last day of the quarter make us believe that tomorrow is going to be a big day for the market. We are leaning bullish as it's the last day of Q1 and March as well as bulls will be looking for reasons to get the market back under control. Further, the direction of the market today was up intraday, showing a positive move all day. It's going to be a jam-packed day, so we are expecting a big move.

Analyst Moves

The interesting analyst moves for us today was Nordstrom being upgraded to Buy from Goldman Sachs. We used that moment as a buying opportunity on the lows of the day, and we believe that JWN is a great company. Under Armour (UA) got downgraded to Neutral from Longbow, which was interesting to us as we believe that UA is heavily overvalued. We have them sell-rated with a PT at $62. They have a long way to come down, but if a bear market starts, UA could be under heavy pressure as the valuations are pretty high for an apparel manufacturer.

Commodity Talk

We went short oil Tuesday as we laid out in our weekly plan, and oil is looking highly pressured right now. Between the SPR release talk and now Saudi comments, oil has a lot of pressures right now. $100 is going to be an amazing support level, and either tomorrow or Monday, Ultra Proshares Oil (UCO) will be a solid pick up as oil traders will not let oil get below $100 unless the market really breaks down hard tomorrow. They'll use good data though as an excuse to bid it back up.

Our Moves

We closed several positions today. We got a 5% gain on the Ultrashort Proshares Oil (SCO) position mentioned. We also closed our long on Coventry Healthcare (CVH) for a 2.1% gain. We also closed out CF Industries (CF) bull call spread for a loss, but we averaged out with a 7% gain. We did take a loss of 12% on Green Mountain (GMCR) from our long-term portfolio as this one weakened again today. We went long in JWN and did a reverse iron condor in weeklies in FAS.

We have the following positions. In our Short-Term Equity Portfolio we are long JWN. In our Options Portfolio, we are long Visa (V), PetSmart (PETM), Starbucks (SBUX), Ralph Lauren (RL), Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM). We are short Apollo Group (APOL) and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM). In our Earnings Portfolio, we are long Monsanto (MON), Ulta (ULTA), Canadian Pacific (CP), and Goldman Sachs.

Chart courtesy of finviz.com.

Disclosure: I am long JWN.