Forecasts Show Crude Prices Falling Steadily

With oil hitting new highs again, below we highlight the average commodity analyst price forecast for Q3 '07, Q1 '08 and Q4 '08. As shown, analysts (as surveyed by Bloomberg) are expecting declines in the commodity through year-end 2008. Expectations for the end of this quarter are $66.87, $11+ lower than current prices. Q1 '08 expectations are $63.35, and Q4 '08 expectations are $58.50. We haven't seen oil in the $50s since March.

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Comments

[elliot_mllr:]

Bloomberg's analysis must also assume that the US dollar will strengthen correlatively with the fall in crude prices, since as you pointed out earlier, when priced in euros crude is now only $56.6, 8% off its $60 high in euros.

2007 Sep 12 12:44 PM

[Greg Pinelli:]

You two need to pay close attention to this...Go somewhere else if this is all about your picture on the byline...Forecasts by almost any group..even the EIA...are always wrong..significantly. Common sense tells us that OPEC is faking it...50,000 barrels a day..give me a break...THERE IS NO EXCESS CAPACITY.
So...and I'll make it easy for Fric and Frac...there is NO!!!! excess capacity and ONLY demand destruction will stop the oil freight train. Welcome to reality.

2007 Sep 12 08:47 PM

[Richie:]

". . . below we highlight the average commodity analyst price forecast for Q3 '07, Q1 '08 and Q4 '08."

Who the hell are the "average commodity analysts" you refer to? Can I be one? I read a book on oil futures once!!!

2007 Sep 13 02:33 PM

[Greg Pinelli:]

Precisely...The EIA has missed EVERY price forecast it's made for the last 5 years. Fric and Frac need to give us substance..there is WAY too much fluff and self promotion on Alpha.....

2007 Sep 14 09:14 PM

[jt:]

I'm expecting declines in the number of people who will ever afain give you two the benefit of the doubt on ANYthing you write. How exactly did you get to be the poster children here today??? Hope you have a daytime job!! Oh...and BTW...we will NEVER see $50 again...unless the whole thing blows up and we have the world equivalent of Mad Max and the Rollerdome. Even then it won't be 50 dollars (which might buy you a beer if someone is feeling quite generous to the idiot dying of thirst who actually proffered those worthless green pieces of paper in payment for something)...maybe 1/10 oz of gold?...whatcha think? jt

2007 Sep 15 01:12 AM