Recent Market Volume Not Indicative of Future Performance

 |  Includes: IVV, SPY
by: Bespoke Investment Group

Since the closing low on August 15th, there has been a camp that argues that the low put in on that day will not hold. The primary reason for this stance is that volume was weaker on the way up than it was on the way down.

We looked at S&P 500 volume following declines of 5% of more and found that in the ten days following the August 15th low, volume was less than it was during the ten days leading up to the low. However, this has also been the case in the prior eight market lows following a decline of 5% or more. In fact, the last time volume following a market low was greater than the volume leading up to the low was over four years ago.