Seeking Alpha

Let’s talk about the nonsense going on over at the NYMEX.

It’s not just the activity at the NYMEX that’s disturbing but the way the press, who used to be the kind of people who would check out a story, simply publishes whatever spin the wealthy sponsors and their PR firms feed them.

You can’t blame the media. The only word they love more than "crisis" is "scandal", but not when the scandal involves one of their advertisers. So, given the choice, they go with "energy crisis" over "oil scam" but let’s dig a little deeper than the average reporter….

The story you’ll hear for Monday is that oil rose $1.10 to $80 on tight supply concerns that drove prices higher.

The truth is that 257M barrels of oil for October delivery were bought AND sold on the NYMEX, which started the day with 197,270,000 barrels yet, strangely, suspiciously even, at the end of the day orders for oil to be delivered in October dropped to 171,442,000 barrels. How can the price of something go up while the demand for it goes down? COLLUSION. Collusion is "a secret understanding, esp. for a fraudulent purpose." Yep, that pretty much describes it in a nutshell.

If it were just the one day, we could brush it off as a fluke and consider our evidence circumstantial but here’s how trading went for the past 4 days since Tuesday, when I predicted that NYMEX traders had no intention of accepting the 289M barrels they had ordered for October:

In the Boston Tea Party, patriots dumped tea into the ocean rather than pay the taxes imposed by a distant king. On the NYMEX, they dumped 117M barrels that were scheduled to be delivered to the American people - BARRELS YOU ALREADY PAID FOR AT THE PUMP - in order to create a bogus shortage so you can pay record high oil prices to a distant sheik.

This isn’t just criminal behavior - it’s TREASONOUS!

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.” - Marcus Cicero

Look at what’s happening. I said on Tuesday:

I will tell you right now that these traders, including the 296M barrels that were bid yesterday to drive oil to record highs, HAVE NO INTENTION WHATSOVER OF ACCEPTING DELIVERY. In fact I will tell you right now that in the next 7 days, they will cancel over 220M of those barrels, which will then be measured in the October inventory reports as a "shortage" and they will then concentrate on rolling over the November contracts, currently with 248Mb on order at $76.26.

So what did happen? Well the traitors cancelled 117,558,000 barrels of oil, that’s 29M barrels A WEEK from October delivery in order for the weather girl on CNBC to be able to tell you every Wednesday at 10:30 how tight supplies are. And what did they do with those barrels? The same thing they do every month, they "roll" the contracts into the forward months, creating a false demand there for oil they never intend to accept delivery of and they have done it EVERY SINGLE MONTH FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS!

But, they are not done…

Were the traitors traders to accept delivery of the 171,442,000 barrels of oil that are still open today, BARRELS THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY BILLED YOU FOR, it would create the biggest glut of oil in US history and crash the oil markets. So these traitors traders will, in the next 4 days, CANCEL ANOTHER 130M BARRELS OF CRUDE and slip the majority of them into the next 3 months in order to create the perception that there is, simultaneously, a record demand and a tight current supply.

It is all smoke and mirrors and it all takes place on the open trading floor of the NYMEX and it’s costing the American people (at $80 a barrel) $1.6Bn per day, $11.2Bn per week, $48Bn a month - $576Bn a year. It’s a crime that’s committed right under our noses and the only way to stop it is for you to get mad!

Unlike Howard Beale in Network, I DO want you to write to your Congressman and I do know what you should say. Tell them you are as mad as hell and you’re not going to take it anymore! Send them this article and tell them to LOOK. Don’t take my word for it just start to watch, have an aide make a chart and keep track. Call a few traders in to testify and explain the logic of their actions. Ask why we are being charged for oil at "front-month" prices when they manipulate the front month contracts by ordering barrels they have absolutely no intention of accepting delivery of.

Ask them who gives the orders, ask them who signs the checks - FOLLOW THE MONEY!

Speaking of Exxon, that company’s market cap jumped back up to $495Bn again and may touch the magic $500Bn mark again tomorrow so let’s see if they can hold it despite the fact that refining margins, which saved them last quarter, are down over 30%.

Exxon is the world’s most valuable company. They don’t cure cancer, they don’t feed people, they only employ 106,000 people - 1/4 McDonald’s 465,000 (market cap $65Bn), 1/3 of Sears’ 352,000 ($18Bn), less than 1/2 of Home Depot’s 247,000 ($70Bn), 30% less than P&Gs 138,000 ($212Bn), a little more than 1/3 of GM’s 280,000 workers ($20Bn) and just over Pfizer’s 98,000 (167Bn). So we richly reward the company that rakes in the most money - through whatever means necessary, while employing relatively few people…

Is this the map for America’s future?

It’s a microcosm of what’s going wrong with our society. Manufacturing jobs are shipped overseas and XOM gains over $300Bn in market cap since 2002 without hiring more workers or producing more oil - it’s the same people, doing the same work for MUCH more money. How much more? In 2002 XOM billed us $200Bn for their products. In 2006, they produced 5% LESS product and billed us $165Bn more ($365Bn) for it and their operating income jumped from $17.5Bn (8.7%) to $67.4Bn (18.5%).

That’s right, they raised the price of oil from $30 a barrel to $80 a barrel, costing the American people over $500Bn a year in retail product prices in order to make an exta $50Bn. God bless us, everyone!

"War is when the government tells you who the bad guy is. Revolution is when you decide that for yourself."

This article is tagged with: United States
From Philip Davis:

USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88, July 14, 2011  


Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien, July 14, 2011  


Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

- Doro165, August 2, 2011  


Phil, I don’t know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I’m up significantly in my portfolio and I’ve never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser, August 2, 2011  


Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob, August 2, 2011  


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman, August 2, 2011  


Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41, August 3, 2011  


Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha, August 5, 2011  


On Optrader’s section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers’. I’ve got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I’ve learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman, August 8, 2011  


Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951, August 18, 2011  


I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis, August 18, 2011  


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw, October 18, 2011  


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston, January 5, 2012  


It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro, January 11, 2012  


Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41, January 25, 2012  


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54, January 25, 2012  


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41, April 5, 2012  


- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

- Autolander, April 11, 2012  


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instinct which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander, April 13, 2012