S&P 500 Performance By Decile Since the Rate Cut

Includes: IVV, SPY
by: Bespoke Investment Group

We recently looked at the performance of S&P 500 stocks since Monday's close (last close before the Fed move) based on three criteria -- market cap, prior stock performance and amount of international revenues. To do this we broke up the index into deciles (50 stocks per decile) based on the three criteria and measured the average performance for each one from 9/17 to now. The tables below highlight the performance numbers for these deciles. Ones highlighted in green have outperformed the overall markets (red = underperform) over the same time period.

The first table measures the recent performance of stocks based on how much they moved from the 7/19 top to the close on 9/17. The top three deciles of stocks that held up the best since 7/19 have actually underperformed in the last three days.

The second table breaks the S&P 500 up by market cap, but no real trends have emerged there. The one criteria that has shown a trend is how much of a stock's revenues are generated internationally. As the table and underlying chart show, the stocks with the most amount of international revenues have performed the best since the rate cut. Why is this? Investors are betting that companies with strong overseas growth will benefit from a falling US Dollar. But as this post shows, this bet could be getting overdone.

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