5 'Out Of The Ordinary' Plays To Consider

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 |  Includes: ATW, NUE, SNY, WFC, XOM
by: Tactical Investor

"Strangers are exciting, their mystery never ends. But, there's nothing like looking at your own history in the faces of your friends."

Ani Difranco

Only stocks that met the following criteria were included in this list. Novice investors would be wise to focus on the following criteria instead of obsessing on the yield factor only. High yields are generally not associated with safe long-term investors, and unusually high yields are usually a sign that all is not well with the company.

  1. Net income should be trending upwards for the past 3 years
  2. Cash flow per share should be rising for the past 3 years
  3. EPS has to be trending upwards for the past 5 years
  4. Sales should be trending upwards for the past 3 years
  5. In general the payout ratio should be below 100%
  6. Interest coverage ratio of above 7
  7. A yield of 2.4% or higher
  8. If the company has a positive levered free cash flow, it should be viewed as "icing on the cake"

A lot of ratios will be covered in this article and investors would do well to get handle on some of the more important ones which are dealt with below.

Long-term debt-to-equity ratio is the total long term debt divided by the total equity. The amount of long-term debt a company carries on its balance sheet is very important for it indicates the amount of money a company owes that it doesn't expect to pay off in the next year. A balance sheet that illustrates that long term debt has been decreasing for a few years is a sign that the company is doing well. When debt levels fall, and cash levels increase, the balance sheet is said to be improving and vice versa. If a company has too much debt on its books, it could end up being overwhelmed with interest payments and risk having too little working capital which could in the worst case scenario lead to bankruptcy.

Operating cash flow is generally a better metric than earnings per share because a company can show positive net earnings and still not be able to properly service its debt. The cash flow is what pays the bills.

The payout ratio tells us what portion of the profit is being returned to investors. A payout ratio over 100% indicates that the company is paying out more money to shareholders than they are making. This situation cannot last forever. In general if the company has a high operating cash flow and access to capital markets, they can keep this going on for a while. As companies usually only pay the portion of the debt that is coming due and not the whole debt, this technique/trick can technically be employed to maintain the dividend for some time. If the payout ratio continues to increase, the situation warrants close monitoring as this cannot last forever. If your tolerance for risk is a low, look for similar companies with the same or higher yields, but with lower payout ratios. Individuals searching for other ideas might find this article to be of interest - Priceline.com: A Fabulous Growth Play.

Current Ratio is obtained by dividing the current assets by current liabilities. This ratio allows you to see if the company can pay its current debts without potentially jeopardizing future earnings. Ideally the company should have a ratio of 1 or higher.

Price to free cash flow is obtained by dividing the share price by free cash flow per share. Higher ratios are associated with more expensive companies and vice versa. Lower ratios are generally more attractive. If a company generated $400 million in cash flow and then spent $100 million on capital expenditure, then its free cash flow is $300 million. If the share price is $100 and the free cash flow per share are $5, then company trades at 20 times-free cash flow. This ratio is also useful because it can be used as a comparison to the average within the industry. This gives you an idea of how the company you are interested in holds up to the other companies within the industry.

Interest coverage is usually calculated by dividing the earnings before interest and taxes for a period of one year by the interest expenses for the same time period. This ratio informs you of a company's ability to make its interest payments on its outstanding debt. Lower interest coverage ratios indicate that there is a larger debt burden on the company and vice versa. For example if a company has an interest ratio of 11.8, this means that it covers interest expenses 11.8 times with operating profits.

Price to tangible book is obtained by dividing share price by tangible book value per share. The ratio gives investors some idea of whether they are paying too much for what would be left over if the company were to declare bankruptcy immediately. In general stocks that trade at higher price to tangible book value could leave investors facing a great percentage per share loss than those that trade at lower ratios. The price to tangible book value is theoretically the lowest possible price the stock would trade to. Additional key metrics are addressed in this article - 5 Alluring Dividend Candidates: Lorillard Is Our Top choice.

Company: Exxon Mobil Cor (XOM)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 19.87B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.2

Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 3

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 41060
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 30460
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 19280
  4. 12 months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = 34.8
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/same Quarter year ago = 1.62
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 89087
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 67978
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 47242
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 9400
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = 34.8
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 11.82
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = 8.97
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = 6.62
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 486429
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 383221
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 310586
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 7.28
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 8.47
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 4.01
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 6.22
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 8.42

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Dividend history

  1. Dividend Yield = 2.10
  2. Dividend Yield 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 2.19
  3. Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.85
  4. Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.74
  5. Forward Yield = 2.19
  6. Dividend 5 year Growth 12/2011 = 6.81

Dividend sustainability

  1. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.22
  2. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 0.26
  3. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 0.26
  4. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 0.26
  5. Change in Payout Ratio = -0.04

Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = -5.26
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 5.69
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = 107.94
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 27.42
  5. ROE 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 27.42
  6. ROE 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 27.79
  7. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 23.96
  8. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 6.36
  9. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 6.36
  10. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 6.32
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 0.94
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 1.19
  3. Quick Ratio = 0.75
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.75
  5. Interest Coverage Quarterly = 228.21

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Valuation

  1. Book Value Quarterly = 33.54
  2. Price/ Book = 2.56
  3. Price/ Cash Flow = 7.26
  4. Price/ Sales = 0.83
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 4.5

Company: Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 7.22B

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 1

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 8265
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 7597
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 7937
  4. 12months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = 13.26
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/Same Quarter year ago = 216.95
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 15143
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 14246
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 15448
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 1887
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = 8.78
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 7.35
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = 7.39
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = 7.07
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 45972
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 41395
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 40201
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 3.64
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.98
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 4.45
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 4.81
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 4.36

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Dividend history

  1. Dividend Yield = 3.54
  2. Dividend Yield 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 3.34
  3. Dividend Yield 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 3.34
  4. Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.37
  5. Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.1
  6. Forward Yield = 7.4
  7. Dividend 5 year Growth 12/2011 = 5.26

Dividend sustainability

  1. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.34
  2. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 0.27
  3. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 0.27
  4. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 0.27
  5. Change in Payout Ratio = 0.07

Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = 0.96
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 1.9
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = 116.39
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 16.36
  5. ROE 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 16.36
  6. ROE 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 16.33
  7. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 11.19
  8. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 12.09
  9. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 12.09
  10. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 12.09
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.54
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 1.58
  3. Quick Ratio = 1.09
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.5
  5. Interest Coverage =12.10

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Valuation

  1. Book Value Quarterly = 29.95
  2. Price/ Book = 1.32
  3. Price/ Cash Flow = 5.37
  4. Price/ Sales = 2.19
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 7.61

Company: Wells Fargo (WFC)

Free Cash Flow = $10.2 billion

Basic Key ratios

  1. Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.02
  2. Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 4

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 16211
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 12663
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 12667
  4. 12months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = 28.37
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/Same Quarter year ago = 20.3
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 30238
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 26132
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 27015
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 4107
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = 28.02
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 3.43
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = 2.77
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = 3.01
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 87597
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 93249
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 98636
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.38
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 0.75
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 1.81
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 2.26
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 2.82

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Dividend history

  1. Dividend Yield = 2.6
  2. Dividend Yield 5 Year Average = 2.4%
  3. Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 0.41
  4. Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 0.2
  5. Forward Yield = 1.39
  6. Dividend 5 year Growth = -21%

Dividend sustainability

  1. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.17
  2. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 0.43
  3. Change in Payout Ratio = -0.26

Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = 2.08
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 10.14
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = -119.67
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 12.93
  5. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 5.75
  6. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 62.07
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 0.9
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 0.97
  3. Quick Ratio = 0.85
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.14
  5. Interest Coverage Quarterly = 7.19

Valuation

  1. Book Value Quarterly = 24.7
  2. Price/ Book = 1.4
  3. Price/ Cash Flow = 10.06
  4. Price/ Sales = 2.08
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 5.86

Company: Atwood Oceanics (ATW)

Levered Free Cash Flow = -424.00M

Basic Key ratios

  1. Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.56
  2. Market Cap ($mil) = 2927
  3. Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 1

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 272
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 257
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 251
  4. 12months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = 17.08
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/Same Quarter year ago = 23.88
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 379
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 374
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 319
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 65
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = 5.71
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 4.94
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = 5
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = 4.22
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 645
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 651
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 587
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.19
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.34
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 3.89
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 4.16
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 4.15

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Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = -7.38
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 15
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = -123.46
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 23.76
  5. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 13.62
  6. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 15.06
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 3.99
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 3.76
  3. Quick Ratio = 2.53
  4. Cash Ratio = 1.95
  5. Interest Coverage Quarterly = 130.88
  1. Valuation
  1. Book Value Quarterly = 26.48
  2. Price/ Book = 1.7
  3. Price/ Cash Flow = 9.09
  4. Price/ Sales = 4.28
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 8.87

Company: Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS)

Levered Free Cash Flow: 11.52B

Growth

  1. Net income for the past three years
  2. Net Income 2009 = $8400 million
  3. Net Income 2010 = $9794 million
  4. Net Income 2011 = $9113 million
  1. EBITDA 12/2011 = $11524 million
  2. EBITDA 12/2010 = $12394 million
  3. EBITDA 12/2009 = $10473 million
  4. Net income Reported Quarterly = $1175 million
  1. Total cash flow from operating activities
  2. 2008 = $9.67 billion
  3. 2009 = $12.2 billion
  4. 2010 = $14.07 billion
  1. Cash Flow 12/2011 = 5.52 $/share
  2. Cash Flow 12/2010 = 5.25 $/share
  3. Cash Flow 12/2009 = 3.72 $/share
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 5.57
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 5.13
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 3.7
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.59
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.81

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Performance

  1. ROE = 20.1%
  2. Return on Assets = 10.81%
  3. Quarterly Earnings Growth = -45.8%
  4. Quarterly Revenue Growth = 3.7%
  1. Price to Sales = 2.27
  2. Price to Book = 2.02
  3. Price to Tangible Book = 33.82
  4. Price to Cash Flow = 10.02
  5. Price to Free Cash Flow = 23
  1. Current Ratio 09/2011 = 1.04
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 1.41
  3. Quick Ratio = 0.78
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.34
  5. Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 8.25
  6. Total return last 3 years = 61.29%
  7. Total return last 5 years = 14.29%

Dividend sustainability and history

  1. Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.36
  2. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.37
  3. Payout Ratio 5 Year average 09/2011 = 0.34
  4. Payout Ratio 5 Year average 06/2011 = 0.33
  5. Change in Payout Ratio = 0.02
  1. Dividend yield 5 year average = 4%
  2. Current yield= 4.5%
  3. Dividend growth rate 3 year average = 13.01%
  4. Dividend growth rate 5 year average = 18.15%
  5. Consecutive dividend increases = 5 years
  6. Paying dividends since = 1992

Company: Nucor Corp (NUE)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 541.03M

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.38

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 778
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 134
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = -294
  4. 12mo Net Incm this Q/12mo Net Incm 4Q's ago = 480.34
  5. Q Net Incm this Q/ same qtr yr ago = 1306.6
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 2008
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 1003
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 287
  4. Net Incm Rpt Qtr ($mil) = 137
  5. Anl Net Incm this Yr/ Net Incm last Yr = 480.34
  6. Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2011 = 4.26
  7. Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2010 = 2.29
  8. Cash Flow ($/sh) 12/2009 = 0.88
  9. Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 22.28
  1. Anl EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 4.94
  2. Anl EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 5.98
  3. Anl EPS before NRI 12/2009 = -0.93
  4. Anl EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 0.44
  5. Anl EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 2.39
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 20024
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 15845
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 11190

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Dividend history

  1. Div Yield = 3.5
  2. Div Yield 5 Yr Average 12/2011 = 2.74
  3. Div Yield 5 Yr Average 09/2011 = 2.59
  4. Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 1.45
  5. Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 1.44
  6. Forward Yield = 3.32
  7. Div 5yr Growth 12/2011 = 22.28
  8. R-squared Div Growth 12/2011 = 0.49
  9. R-squared Div Growth 09/2011 = 0.58

Dividend sustainability

  1. Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.73
  2. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.97
  3. Payout Ratio 5 Yr Average 12/2011 = 0.89
  4. Payout Ratio 5 Yr Average 09/2011 = 0.86
  5. Payout Ratio 5 Yr Average 06/2011 = 0.82
  6. Change in Payout Ratio = -0.28

Performance

  1. Percentage change Price 52 Wks Relative to S&P 500 = -10.07
  2. Standard Dev Target Price Estimate = 3.25
  3. Average EPS Surprise Last 4 Qtr = 24.57
  4. EPS % Change F2/F1 = 32.16
  5. Next 3-5 Yr Estimate EPS Growth rate = 6.67
  6. Std Dev 3-5 Yr Estimate EPS Growth rate = 4.73
  7. EPS Growth Q(1)/Q(-3) = 19-150.00
  8. 5 Yr History EPS Growth 12/2011 = -35.97
  9. 5 Yr History EPS Growth 09/2011 = -39.33
  10. ROE 5 Yr Average 12/2011 = 14.65
  11. Return on Investment 12/2011 = 6.51
  12. Return on Investment 09/2011 = 5.42
  13. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 4.12
  14. Debt/Tot Cap 5 Yr Average 12/2011 = 29.5
  1. Current Ratio 12/2011 = 2.8
  2. Current Ratio 5 Yr Average = 3.39
  3. Quick Ratio = 1.97
  4. Cash Ratio = 1.26
  5. Interest Coverage 12/2011 = 6.58
  6. Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 8.07
  7. Interest Coverage 06/2011 = 12.05

Valuation

  1. Book Value Qtr ($/share) 12/2011 = 24.33
  2. Book Value Qtr ($/share) 09/2011 = 24.26
  3. Book Value Qtr ($/share) 06/2011 = 24.28
  1. Price/ Book = 1.81
  2. Price/ Cash Flow = 10.33
  3. Price/ Sales = 0.7
  4. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 7.48
  5. P/E/G F1 = 2.07

Conclusion

The markets are rather overbought and need to let out some steam. Prudent investors would do well to wait for a strong pullback before committing funds to this market. A pullback in the 7-12% ranges would qualify as a strong pullback.

Disclaimer

This list of stocks is meant to serve as a starting point. Please do not treat this as a buying list. It is imperative that you do your due diligence and then determine if any of the above plays meet with your risk tolerance levels. The Latin maxim caveat emptor applies-let the buyer beware.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: EPS, Price, EPS surprise charts obtained from zacks.com. A major portion of the historical data used in this article was obtained from zacks.com.