It's not often that investors get a 38% gain in a major stock market in a matter of six weeks, but that is exactly what investors in the Hong Kong stock market have gotten since the Hang Seng hit its low in August (based on the intraday low from 8/17 the gain is actually over 45%). The question now is, is it too late to get in?
We went back to 1980 and found all the periods where the Hang Seng had a gain of 30% in 30 trading days. Since then there have been seven other periods which fit the criteria. Over the next thirty trading days, the average gain is 0.6% with gains in four out of seven periods. Over the next six months, the results are considerably more negative with an average decline of 6.2%, and declines in five out of seven periods.