Are LEDs Ready to Shine?

With LED light bulbs lasting upward of 50,000 hours vs. 1,000 for many incandescents, one would think a majority of consumers would embrace the new technology for their homes.

But according to a recent ChangeWave survey, consumers still aren’t there when it comes to the cost.

The August survey of 3,665 respondents did find a growing willingness among consumers (54% Very Willing; 38% Somewhat Willing) to try LEDs in their homes:

When LED lights become available for general household lighting, how willing will you be to try them for your home?

Yet when we asked how much respondents were willing to spend, the results are far more ambiguous.

To put the following chart in perspective, the price of a household LED varies according to size but can cost upwards of $50 per bulb. In comparison, compact fluorescent bulbs – which can last 10,000 hours – cost less than $5 and incandescents are under $1.

That said, here’s what consumers are currently willing to pay for LEDs.

At what price point would you consider replacing all of your household light bulbs with LED lights?

With just 4% saying they’d pay $10 or more per bulb to replace their entire house with LEDs, it’s clear respondents are still more concerned about money paid up front than with efficiency and durability down the road.

People just aren’t willing to part with hundreds of dollars now to have more money in their pockets later.

But once the price of LEDs drop below $10, however, the adoption curve really begins to take off – and at $5 nearly two-thirds of respondents (65%) would consider replacing all their household bulbs with LEDs.

Plans to Ban

Lighting up the U.S. accounts for 22% of all electric consumption, and widespread use of LED’s could – according to DOE – cut related energy consumption in half. It’s not surprising then, that over the next few years the switch to LEDs or fluorescents may become mandatory for many of us.

California and Canada have banned the use of incandescent bulbs by 2012, and Australia has announced plans to ban them by 2010. Even New Jersey – where the first practical incandescent emerged from Thomas Edison's lab in 1879 – has introduced a bill to ban its use in government buildings.

According to ChangeWave advisor and founder Toby Smith, “This is a secular wave that's simply not going to stop. Once you replace incandescent lights with white-light LEDs, you're not turning back.”

Smith sees LED manufacturer Cree (CREE) as perfectly positioned to benefit from this trend.

“Cree is the killer-value play when it comes to white-light LEDs. The company has plants in China that are kicking butt, and they have the intellectual property rights for high-performance LED chips, which is mucho importante.”

We’ll continue to monitor the LED adoption curve. But for now – strange as it may seem – the biggest catalyst for getting LEDs in the home just might be the banning of incandescents.

Either way, LED is here to stay.

Karen Riccio co-wrote this article.

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This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 11,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on the ChangeWave Alliance, or if you are interested in joining, please click here.

Comments

[User 112360]

I would pay $50.00 for a bulb that lasts 50,000 hours, but the bulbs aren't here yet. The best I have found produces the equivalent of a 15-watt incandescent bulb. When are they going to have a product equivalent to a 60-watt bulb?

[lefty]

Wow! Being a retired ieee, have wondered why this wasen't done long ago. Cost I presume.

[Gramps]

I have a 100 watt Cree XLamp lighting system that delivers the equivalent of about a 400 watt bulb in lumens. It requires a cooling fan and costs about $600 USD. Just posting this to give you an idea of just how expensive this is.
Personally, I think a sulfur-argon-microwave bulb is the ultimate in lighting, but only one company manufactures this. It's almost like something is actively trying to bury this technology.