IDEXX Laboratories: A Solid Bet on the Pet Economy

Introduction

Stocks in the pet medicine space have been on a tear over the last year and are trading near 52-week highs. We believe the investment thesis for pets is secular in nature and we are presently taking advantage of a slight dip in one stock in particular – IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX).

Description

IDEXX Laboratories makes diagnostic kits to test your pet for diseases. The $3.4B company out of Maine possesses one of the more interesting, and higher margin, business profiles in the group. Rather than play the sector via a retail name like Petsmart (PETM), we think investors would be wise to turn to the diagnostic end of the sphere. Below are IDXX's sales for the last 5 years – as one can see, they have been on a roll. And they have been doing so profitably!

Herein we list some of the more salient points behind IDXX's stock, which has shown healthy double digit earnings growth over the last couple of years.

Investment Strengths

IDXX is taking advantage of a continued secular trend of increased utilization of more complex veterinary services for pets.

Six out of ten households own a pet; Americans are throwing more of their disposable income to their fuzzy companions

In the trailing 12 years, spending on pets has doubled from $17B to $39B. We expect the trend to continue given the rising popularity of pets among celebrities, baby boomers, and single young professionals.

The trend among animal hospitals/vets is moving towards (internal) kits (and away from outsourcing to labs).

Razor/blade business model based on consumables = steady annuity of income; creates robust 22% EBIT margin

IDXX sells to veterinarians (vs. consumers), a group that faces higher switching costs and thus creates less fickle revenue for IDEXX.

IDXX has jettisoned some of its pharma business, which was consuming cash and getting them nowhere fast.

Aggressively buying back stock

Valuation

Our back of the envelope EPS for 2008 is $4, reflecting 19% growth and in line with historical performance. We think a fair value for IDXX is in the $100 range, which we derive by taking our $4 estimate and applying a 25x PE (mid range of 5Y 20-37 range). At present levels, we rate Idexx a HOLD and would use dips in the stock to accumulate a position. IDEXX may not be a screaming buy, but it's certainly not a dog to ignore. At a better valuation, we'd open up our wallets and gladly join the Pet Economy.

Comments

[DanielJacome]

I should add that Ruane Cunniff, a deep value shop, owns 15% of IDXX. Ruane runs the Sequoia Fund, whose returns speak for themselves...

I think that at 37x forward, IDXX is probably not a "cheap" stock, but it is going higher anyways. People love their pets and will run thru brick walls to make them happy....that's why IDXX makes us happy.

Buy on any weakness.

[DanielJacome]

I just got word that IDXX may soon SPLIT their stock, which would be a net plus, in our opinion


Right now, IDXX is a $3B+ company with only 29m shares in the float...the writing is on the wall.

We will pick up more IDXX within the Q.

[DanielJacome]

Well, our mice were right again. IDXX split today -- good for a 6% pop

[DanielJacome]

IDXX is a top gorillatrades.com pick -- these guys are good -- stick to IDXX!

[DanielJacome]

Cramer pitched it today -- thanks JJ, raise the roof

[DanielJacome]

For those who followed our original post/report and made some cash, we would flip 50% of the position here. The stock closed under the 50 day yesterday and reversed today upwards, but on LOWER volume than that seen in the selloff.

Is the long term story intact? Yes, as of now.

But the chart is indicating some minor slippage.

Investors still looking for a pet play can also consider WOOF.

thx, - DJ