Goldman Sachs (GS) is set to report its Q1 results before the opening bell on Tuesday, April 17, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting a profit of $3.55 per share on revenue of $9.44 billion.
Looking back at the historical session-to-session performance following earnings events we've found the issue favors reversals. It has widened its move 14 times and cut back its share performance 16 times.
Of particular interest, GS very rarely sees aggressive earnings-driven pre-market movement. For only five times in the 30 quarters we've tracked, has the issue moved more than 3%, either declining or advancing. Most of those events occurred during the most volatile economic crisis and post-crisis recovery periods. In the other 25 events, the stock has seen its pre-bell gains or declines kept to under 2.5% for most quarters.
The issue has declined in 13 quarters, extending that move six times, or 46% of the time. The issue has gained in 17 quarters, extending that move nine times, or 53% of the time. This performance makes it difficult to determine whether Goldman will add to or cut its pre-market trade in follow-on regular session action, so morning traders will want to watch carefully as to where potential floors and ceilings develop in pre-market action.
Here's the historical performance data:
- On Jan. 18, 2012, GS advanced 1.1% in pre-market trade after beating Q4 earnings expectations. The stock surged higher in that day's regular session, ending up 6.8%.
- On Oct. 18, 2011, GS gained 1.3% in pre-bell action despite swinging to a wider-than-expected quarterly loss. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, ending up 5.5%.
- In the July 19, 2011, pre-market session, the stock fell 2.9% after a Q2 earnings miss. Shares dipped a leaner 0.6% during regular trading later that day.
- On April 19, 2011, the stock gained 1.4% during the pre-market session after results were below the year-ago period but did beat the Street view. The stock ended regular trading down 1.2%.
- On Jan. 19, 2011, GS declined 3% in pre-bell trade after missing Q4 revenue expectations and beating on earnings. The stock added to its downside in that day's regular session, ending off 4.7%.
- On Oct. 19, 2010, GS edged up 0.7% in pre-market action after beating Q3 estimates. The stock added modestly to its upside in that day's regular session, rising 1.9% by the closing bell.
- On July 20, 2010, the stock fell 2.4% during pre-market trading after the company reported an earnings beat but a sales miss. Shares improved to gain 2.2% during regular trading later that day.
- On April 20, 2010, GS climbed 1.8% in pre-bell trade on the back of Q1 results that were well ahead of expectations. The stock saw its upside evaporate in the following regular session, closing down 2%.
- On Jan. 21, 2010, GS edged up 0.5% in pre-market trade after swinging back to a gain in Q4 vs. the year ago quarter and posting revenue in line with expectations. The stock saw its gain evaporate in that day's regular session, declining 4.1% by the closing bell.
- On Oct. 15, 2009, GS declined 2% in pre-bell action despite topping Q3 expectations. The decline narrowed slightly in that day's regular session, with the issue ending down 1.9%.
- On July 14, 2009, GS slipped 0.3% in pre-market trade after posting Q2 results well ahead of expectations. The stock managed to eke out a gain for the full day, ending up 0.1%.
- On April 13, 2009, GS dipped 1.6% in after-hours trade, reporting its quarterly results earlier than expected and beating expectations while also announcing plans for a stock offering. The stock was hammered lower the following day, losing 11.6% by the regular session close on April 14.
- On Dec. 16, 2008, the stock gained 3.6% during the pre-market session after the company reported a deeper Q4 loss than official Street estimates but not the worst-case result that some had expected. Shares jumped 15% during regular trading later that day.
- On Sept. 16, 2008, the stock tumbled 12.5% during pre-market trading after sharp drop in profit reported though above Street view, revenue shy. The loss was sharply reduced, to 1.8% by the closing bell.
- On June 17, 2008, GS advanced 1.6% in pre-market trade after topping Street expectations. The stock lost that gain in the following regular session, ending June 17 bell-to-bell action down 1.5%.
- GS roared 9.1% higher in the March 18, 2008 pre-market session after the company topped Q1 expectations. It charged even higher in the following regular session, rising 16.2% by the close.
- On Dec. 18, 2007, GS edged up 0.5% in pre-market trade after beating Q4 expectations. The stock lost its upside in the following regular session, ending bell-to-bell trade down 3.4%.
- On Sept. 20, GS advanced 2.6% in pre-bell trade after the firm topped Q3 expectations. It lost that gain in the following regular session, ending the day off 0.2%.
- On June 14, 2007, the stock fell 2.5% in the pre-market despite beating with Q2 results. The loss was a slightly steeper 3.3% by the close of regular trading later that day.
- On March 13, 2007, GS edged up 0.9% in the pre-market session after topping Q1 expectations. However, shares failed to hold gains into the day session. Shares ended the regular session down 1.7%.
- On Dec. 12, the stock fell 1.1% in the pre-market despite results that largely topped Street expectations. Shares ended the regular session down 1.2%.
- On Sept. 12, 2006, GS advanced 2.3% in pre-market trade after the company topped Q3 expectations. It added to its gains in that day's regular session, ending up 4.8%.
- On June 13, 2006, GS slipped a thin 0.1% in pre-market trade after the company beat Street expectations with both revenue and earnings. The stock found more aggressive downside play in that day's regular session, losing 3.9% by the closing bell.
- On March 14, 2006, GS jumped 3.6% in pre-market trade after the company blew past Q1 expectations. The stock expanded on that gain between the bells, rising 6.1% in the March 14 regular session.
- On Dec. 15, 2005, GS slipped 1.4% in pre-bell action after the company beat on revenue and matched on EPS. It saw some of that downside narrow in the regular session, ending the day down a modest 1%.
- On Sept. 20, 2005 GS advanced 1.9% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q3 expectations by a wide margin. This upside failed to hold through the regular session as GS closed bell-to-bell play down 0.1%.
- On June 16, 2005 GS edged down 0.5% in pre-market trade after the company reported earnings and revenue that were both shy of expectations. The stock reversed course in the regular session, ending up 3.5%.
- On March 17, 2005 GS advanced 0.7% in early trade after blowing past Street expectations. It scaled back its upside slightly between the bells, closing the regular session up 0.6%.
- Back on Dec. 16, 2004 GS slid 2.3% in pre-market action after the banker reported earnings that topped the Street view by four cents. More aggressive selling hit it during the day, sending it down 3.5%.
- On Sept. 21, 2004 GS advanced 1.6% in morning trade after the company reported results ahead of Wall Street's expectations. Buyers fanned the upside further in bell-to-bell play, running the stock up 3.5%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.