Pinnacle West : Every Trend Has An Equal and Opposite Trend

| About: Pinnacle West (PNW)

For the past several days, I've been giving tips about how to predict trends and ride them to profits. My last tip is that sometimes you can make money by taking a clear trend -- and then ignoring it and investing in a less trendy stock, or even a stock that seems to be losing out because of that same trend.

Before you throw up your hands in frustration, hear me out. For just one example, take Pinnacle West (NYSE:PNW). This Arizona company has two divisions: real estate development and an electric utility. Not surprisingly, the stock has really sunk since the spring as investors started fleeing with the intensifying real estate woes; back in April PNW was trading just above $50, and in early August it was down around $37.

Most trend followers would sell this stock too -- who wants to be involved with any real estate development company? As I see it, however, the company has been excessively punished for its real estate division, and it's currently undervalued when one considers its electricity division.

Arizona is a hot place with a growing population, and there's only going to be increasing demand for electrical power to cool the homes and offices of all these people. The company may not return to its previous profit levels, but I think investors have overreacted, and we could see this gain several dollars back. When you add some modest growth to a 5.3% dividend, you could find yourself with a nice little profit.

Type of stock: An Arizona company dealing in real estate and electricity.

Price target: If you can get this below $40, I think you'll see it get up to around $45 over the next year. That's a ten percent gain right there, plus a dividend to make it nearly a 15% gain. Plus if you hold long enough, real estate has to come back sometime. That could be at least a few years though, so you'll need to be patient.

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