Why Valero Is A Buy After Interim Guidance

Apr.17.12 | About: Valero Energy (VLO)

Refiners have had a tough month as both Tesoro (TSO) and Valero (VLO) have had significant pull backs over that time span. However, I think Valero has had some positive news recently, is deeply undervalued and seems poised to bounce back in short order.

Key Recent Events

  • Announced a $605m charge for its Aruba refinery, which should put that overhanging albatross behind it.
  • Interim guidance either the other day (which included refinery charge announcement) was above consensus.
  • Its Memphis facility is now back on line.
  • Citicorp just added the stock to its top picks and successful hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has it as one of his top 10 positions as well.
  • Driving season is almost here.

Valero Energy - "Valero Energy Corporation operates as an independent petroleum refining and marketing company. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Ethanol, and Retail". (Business Description from Yahoo Finance)

4 additional reasons Valero is a solid bargain at just under $24 a share:

  • It is below its consensus price target. The 12 analysts that cover the stock have a median price target of $30.50 on Valero.
  • It is dirt cheap at just over 5 times forward earnings and 79% of book value.
  • Consensus estimates for FY2012 and FY2013 have increased smartly even as stock has fell.
  • The stock sells for less than 4 times cash flow, is expected to have revenue growth of approximately 8% for both FY2012 and FY2013 and also pays a dividend of 2.5%.

Disclosure: I am long VLO.