Allegheny Technologies: Expect Future Growth

The other day, Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI), the largest stainless steel producer in the U.S., experienced a steep decline in share price. This company produces not just stainless steel but also titanium and other materials, as well as develops engineered products used in cutting tools and die casting, usually to be used in the aerospace, automotive, and appliance sectors.

When the investor sees a fall in share price, there are two conclusions. Sometimes these types of price drops are warranted; sometimes they scream to the savvy investor: opportunity! This is a case of the latter. The reason for the drop the other day was a company report that stainless steel and nickel prices were volatile and falling, which then negatively impacted its stainless steel segment. This report prompted share prices to fall by $10 -- well beyond what I feel was warranted.

In addition to falling prices, ATI's prospects were dampened recently when Boeing (BA) announced that it would deliver its Dreamliner 787 planes six months later than expected. Each plane required 250 THOUSAND pounds of nickel, which ATI was going to supply, so this is a blow. Provided this delay doesn't get extended, I don't see it affecting ATI in the long turn. The management is solid, and demand for its specialty metal product isn't going away.

ATI is still experiencing a record year in profits, due to high demand in specialty metals, even if it hasn't met the target expectations set. If you are willing to hang onto this stock, you'll see this come back, and then some, in my opinion. I'm not alone in this thinking. The price is still well below a recent Goldman Sach's report setting the target for ATI at $113. Bear Stearns thinks the stock is going to $150!

Type of Stock: A cyclical stock in the steel/ iron industry, this enormous player in the U.S. stainless steel market has taken a hit after recently reporting a lowering of profit estimates.

Price Target: Trading at $95.12, this stock price has bounced slightly since the company reported lower estimates for its third quarter and full year profits. The announcement caused a big dip in price -- one I feel isn't warranted. With any cyclical stock, you need to be aware of the risk, but if things line up as well as they could, we could see ATI reach the $120 range within a year.