AmTech Expects Apple To Meet Or Beat In Report Monday

This could be confusing at first glance: American Technology Research’s Shaw Wu writes in a note Friday morning that he expects Apple (AAPL) to meet or beat the consensus view for its September quarter when it reports on Monday. But he also thinks the estimates for December have gone too far, and that Apple’s forecast will likely be below consensus.

Concludes Wu: “While AAPL shares will likely be volatile given high expectations and its superstar performance, we advise investors to take advantage should AAPL shares pull back on short-term concerns.” He thinks the stock can go to $185.

For the just-ended quarter, Wu is expecting $6 billion in sales and 83 cents per share in profit and he thinks Apple can meet that even though the company’s forecast is for only $5.7 billion in sales and 65 cents.

But for December, the Street’s view is too high at $8.6 billion and $1.38; Wu thinks it’s more like $8.1 billion and $1.25. “For the December quarter, we believe AAPL will most likely continue its tradition of conservative guidance to help reign in unrealistic expectations,” writes Wu.

Wu goes on to say that Apple is seeing strength across the board with its new iPods, including the “Touch” model, and he’s comfortable with an estimate that Apple sold 900,000 iPhones in the last quarter, above the company’s own forecast of 730,000.

Comments

[gc.alpha:]

Yes, and the Sun will likely rise tomorrow.

Wu hasn't been paying attention. Apple has beaten the Street's estimates continuously for over 4 years, and Jobs consistently guides below the Street looking forward. Jobs doesn't 'lowball' estimates to reign in the Street; he does it to avoid being accused of misguiding investors with unrealistically high expectations: CYA.
If Wu is being honest with his numbers (I'd be skeptical), he is getting further from the mark, not closer, and the December qtr results will not only beat Wu's and Job's low ests, but the current Street ests.
In fact, expect Street ests for December to steadily creep upward, not downward over the coming months, and for those higher numbers to get beat handily.

2007 Oct 21 11:01 AM

[sfhc21:]

Wu is an idiot, one of the worst analysts out there. His original iPhone forecast was just 250,000 for all of 2007. He's always playing catch up.

Only 10% YOY growth for Q1 08? Come on Wu. Apple has averaged 70%+ for the past year. Once again, Wu will have to up his estimate in January. And he'll still be way short as usual.

2007 Oct 21 12:13 PM

[mkreisel:]

AAPL will blow out the estimate, and the stock will sell off.

2007 Oct 21 05:55 PM