The Yuan and oil
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The massive trade deficit between China and the United States has a solution: Let the Chinese yuan float freely in the forex markets. Experts believe the yuan would strengthen compared to the US dollar ($) and that Chinese exports would become more expensive...evening the playing field. There have been a number of rebuttals to this "solution": Another currency for the US$ to compete with, Interest rates in the US would probably rise and a the question would it have the desired effect on jobs that the US wants (come back to the US). However, this posting deals with energy.
What effect if any would a floating yuan have on oil? Wu Lei and Liu Xue-Jun believe the effect would be significant and not very good for the US economy.
Mr. Wu and Mr. Liu key points:
- The purchasing power of China would increase as their currency strengthens.
- With oil being denominated in US$, the price of oil would become cheaper.
- Chinese oil demand would than probably increase.
- Greater demand would exacerbate the supply/demand balance.
- A yuan revaluation would hurt other importers of Chinese goods, some of which might not have the economic foundation to prosper/withstand an inflationary environment.
- Oil-producing nations would see a devaluation of its driving currency (oil) and this might hurt the supply picture.
- China's image would worsen on a global level and economic retaliation might occur.
Comment: This seems to make economic sense and frankly it is a little scary. Cheap oil for a burgeoning populace could cause demand to outstrip supply quickly and violently. Be careful for what you wish for.
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