Facebook: The Ford Of Our Generation

Apr.19.12 | About: Facebook (FB)

The Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) IPO. It's what everyone is waiting for: Anyone who still has cash on the sidelines not trusting the rally. We professionals. Old, young, intellectually inclined, intellectually challenged. Everyone is waiting for that May release. No one knows what price it will come out at yet. No one knows the fundamentals of the price yet. But every single one of us wants it to be traded.

Most professionals agree that Facebook is going to come out red hot. Let's say that the IPO price is at $30 a share. We professional traders believe that the stock will open at $50-$60 a share. Fully expect a P/E ratio north of 25x earnings. Anything less than that, and Facebook should sue their brokers for negligence.

Going back to our little example of $30 a share opening at $60 per share. By that logic, Facebook's P/E would launch itself up to 50x. To me, that price is still ridiculously cheap. This company is a phenomenal growth story. They are expected to make $13 billion next year. That is over a 100% growth rate over our current year. Now take into account that sources close to Facebook have come out and stated that the company's primary objective is to destroy Google (GOOG). That in itself is a scary thought. Microsoft (MSFT) has a search engine that is strictly a cash drain on the company. Luckily for Microsoft, Facebook is about to have plenty of cash on hand after it goes public. I'm sure Facebook would be willing to take that search engine off of Microsoft's hands for a sensible price.

When that happens compare Google to Facebook directly. The information Google has for an "individualized experience" is far less than Facebook. The best part is that Facebook will be able to seamlessly integrate it into their existing website if they so choose. With a superior search engine, Facebook will be able to quickly eat into Google's $200 billion market cap. If Facebook only takes 20% market share from Google in the first two years after acquiring Bing, that translates into $40 billion worth of business for Facebook. That means Facebook stands to triple their revenue by simply buying Bing from Microsoft. Don't forget that Facebook would be able to compete with China-based Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), and steal market share from them as well.

I feel more than comfortable getting into this stock for under 80x earnings. Facebook represents a rare opportunity for the individual investor to get in on the ground floor of a great company.

Disclosure: I do not currently have any interests in Facebook, but plan to acquire some when they come public.