E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) is a tricky post-earnings mover for longs and shorts. Post-earnings evening moves in either direction are often reversed.
Looking deeper into the data, ETFC has followed earnings news with a gain 13 times, extending that move six times, or 46% of the time. ETFC has followed earnings news with a decline 17 times, extending that move seven times, or 41% of the time.
E*Trade is due with its Q1 results after the bell tonight. The mean estimate in the Thomson Reuters survey of analysts is for a profit of $0.09 per share on $468 million in revenue.
- On Jan. 25, 2012, ETFC declined 3.8% in evening trade after missing Q4 revenue expectations. The stock tumbled lower the next day, ending the Jan. 26 regular session off 14.6%.
- On Oct. 19, 2011, the stock rose 1% during evening hours after Q3 results topped the year-ago quarter. The stock rose 1.9% the next day.
- On July 20, 2011, ETFC edged up 0.6% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 expectations. The stock firmed higher the following day, ending the July 21 regular session up 4.8%.
- On April 20, 2011, the stock gained 5.1% after a Q1 beat. Shares rose a leaner 3.4% the next day.
- On Jan. 26, 2011, the stock fell 2.4% in extended-hours trading after the company reports a loss and weaker revenue, though results did beat the Street view. Shares rebounded to gain 6% the next day.
- On Oct. 20, 2010, ETFC gained 0.3% in night trade after meeting EPS estimates and beating on revenue. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the Oct. 21 regular session down 4.1%.
- On July 22, 2010, ETFC advanced 6.7% in evening trade after swinging to a profit on a year-over-year revenue decline. It firmed higher the following day, closing the July 23 regular session up 7.5%.
- On April 21, 2010, the stock fell 1.1% during after-hours trading after reporting a narrower quarterly loss. The stock rebounded to gain 0.5% the next day.
- On Jan. 27, 2010, the stock gained 1.8% during evening trading after meeting with earnings. Shares ended down 3% the next day.
- On Oct. 27, 2009, ETFC edged down 0.6% in after-hours trade after reporting a loss that just beat Street estimates. The stock tumbled further in the red the next day, ending the Oct. 28 regular session down 7%.
- On July 22, 2009, the stock ended evening trade flat after reporting a smaller Q2 loss than the Street expected. Shares rose 4.4% the next day.
- On April 28, 2009, the stock plunged 23.9% in evening trading after reporting weaker revenue. The loss fattened to 33.7% the following day.
- On Jan. 27, 2009, the stock fell 2.7% despite a report of a narrower-than-expected loss. Shares jumped 16.3% the next day.
- On Oct. 21, 2008, ETFC declined 0.4% in night trade after the company reported a narrower-than-expected loss. It ended the Oct. 22 regular session down 0.4% as well.
- On July 22, 2008, ETFC shed 14.3% in after-hours trade after swinging to a Q2 loss vs. year ago levels. The stock added to its downside the following day, losing 15.8% by the closing bell.
- On April 17, 2008, ETFC surged 10.2% in after-hours action after reporting a deeper-than-expected loss but also guiding for a return to profits in 2008. The stock held the bulk of its gains through the following day's regular session, but narrowed its upside slightly, closing with a 9.6% gain.
- On Jan. 24, 2008, ETFC jumped 10% during evening hours after the company reported a deeper-than-expected loss but said it expected to return to profitability in 2008. The gain was trimmed to 8% the next day.
- On Oct. 17, 2007, ETFC dropped 5.6% during evening trading after the company reported an unexpected Q3 loss and cut its FY EPS view. The loss was a deeper 8% the next day.
- On July 25, 2007, ETFC edged up 2.1% in night trade after topping Q2 EPS estimates by two cents. However, shares reversed the next day and ended down 6.8% in the regular session.
- On April 18, 2007, the stock fell 3.8% in the evening session after the company just beats with Q1 results. The loss was a slightly deeper 4.7% the next day.
- On Dec. 14, 2006, the stock gained 1% in the evening hours after the company largely stopped Street estimates. Shares were up 1.8% the next day.
- On Oct. 18, 2006, the stock fell 2.1% in post-bell trading as revenue missed and guidance straddled the Street view. That loss swelled to 7.8% the next day.
- On July 19, 2006, ETFC slipped 0.04% in the evening hours after the company tops Q2 estimates and raises its FY EPS outlook relative to its prior view. Shares also ended just lower the next day, down 0.04%.
- On April 19, 2006, shares were up 0.8% after the company reported ahead of the Street and guided higher. The stock gained 1% the next day.
- On Jan. 23, 2006, ETFC improved 1.1% in the evening hours after beating with EPS but coming in shy on revenue. The gain was pared to just 0.4% the next day.
- On Oct. 19, 2005, the stock edged 0.2% higher after hours following its release showing EPS ahead by a penny on revenue strength. The gain improved to 1.4% the next day.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.