5 Growth Plays To Think About: 3 Excellent, 1 Good And 1 Middling

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 |  Includes: AFL, ATPAQ, CREE, OLED
by: Tactical Investor

"There are two kinds of man: The ones who make history and the ones who endure it."

Camilo Cela

Only stocks that met the following criteria were included on this list. Novice investors would be wise to focus on some of the following criteria instead of obsessing on the yield factor only. Abnormally high yields are generally not associated with safe long-term investments, and an unusually high yield could be a sign that all is not well.

1. Net income should generally be trending upwards for the past three years.

2. Cash flow per share should be rising for the past three years.

3. EPS should be trending upwards for the past three-five years.

4. Sales should be trending upwards for the past three years.

5. In general if applicable the payout ratio should be below 100%.

6. If the company has a positive levered free cash flow, it should be viewed as "icing on the cake."

AFLAC Inc. (NYSE:AFL)

Levered Free Cash Flow: 2.47B

Beta=2.19

Growth

  1. Net income for the past three years
  2. Net Income 2009 = $1497 million
  3. Net Income 2010 = $2344 million
  4. Net Income 2011 = $1964 million
  1. EBITDA 12/2011 = $3188 million
  2. EBITDA 12/2010 = $3734 million
  3. EBITDA 12/2009 = $2307 million
  4. Net income Reported Quarterly = $8 million
  1. Total cash flow from operating activities
  2. 2009 = $6.17 billion
  3. 2010 = $6.99 billion
  4. 2011 = $10.85 billion
  1. Cash Flow 12/2011 = 6.37 $/share
  2. Cash Flow 12/2010 = 5.55 $/share
  3. Cash Flow 12/2009 = 4.87 $/share
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 6.33
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 5.53
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 4.85
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.99
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 3.27

Click to enlarge

Performance

  1. ROE = 24.16%
  2. Return on Assets = 2.71%
  3. Quarterly Earnings Growth = 24.9%
  4. Quarterly Revenue Growth = 12.4%
  1. Key Ratios
  2. Price to Sales = 0.96
  3. Price to Book = 1.58
  4. Price to Tangible Book = 1.58
  5. Price to Cash Flow = 7.18
  6. Price to Free Cash Flow = 2.1
  1. Current Ratio 09/2011 = 0.04
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 0.17
  3. Quick Ratio = 0.04
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.02
  5. Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 16.74
  6. Total return last 3 years = 149%
  7. Total return last 5 years = 9%

Dividend history and sustainability

  1. Payout Ratio 09/2011 = 0.21
  2. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.19
  3. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 0.24
  4. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 0.24
  5. Change in Payout Ratio = -0.03
  1. Dividend yield 5 year average = 2.8%
  2. Dividend growth rate 3 year Average = 8%
  3. Dividend growth rate 5 year average = 16%
  4. Consecutive dividend increases = 29 years
  5. Paying dividends since = 1973

Company: Universal Display (PANL)

Basic Key ratios

  1. Percentage Held by Insiders = 7.7
  2. Number of Institutional Sellers 12 Weeks = 2

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 3
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = -20
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = -21
  4. 12months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = 115.84
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/same Quarter year ago = 207.86
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 0
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = -22
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = -21
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 6
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = 115.82
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 0.1
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = -0.57
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = -0.58
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 61
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 31
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 16
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = -0.47
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = -0.53
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = -0.56
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = -0.53
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 0.16

Click to enlarge

Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = -35.1
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 40
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = 2-100.00
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 12/2011 = -21.97
  5. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 2.18
  6. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 0
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 18.57
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 8.12
  3. Quick Ratio = 18.37
  4. Cash Ratio = 17.82
  5. Interest Coverage Quarterly = 327.85

Valuation

  1. Book Value Quarterly = 7.44
  2. Price/ Book = 4.79
  3. Price/ Cash Flow = 360.65
  4. Price/ Sales = 26.8
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = -21603.71

Company: Nexen (NXY)

Levered Free Cash Flow = 1.25B

Basic Key ratios

  1. Percentage Held by Insiders = 0.17

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 705
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 1162
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 489
  4. 12months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = -31.68
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/same Quarter year ago = -79.81
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 3680
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 3008
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 993
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 43
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = -39.31
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 5.19
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = 4.13
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = 0.98
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 6483
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 5657
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 5556
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.46
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 3.55
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 0.97
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 1.05
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 1.47

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Dividend history

  1. Dividend Yield = 1.00
  2. Dividend Yield 5 Year Average =0.8%
  3. Annual Dividend 12/2011 = 0.2
  4. Annual Dividend 12/2010 = 0.19
  5. Forward Yield = 1.07
  6. 5 year dividend growth rate= 21.7%
  1. Dividend sustainability
  1. Payout Ratio 06/2011 = 0.14
  2. Payout Ratio 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 0.11
  3. Change in Payout Ratio = 0.03

Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = -28.15
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 7
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = -170
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 17.26
  5. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 6.3
  6. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 43.63
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 1.08
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 1.36
  3. Quick Ratio = 0.98
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.33
  5. Interest Coverage =7.9

Valuation

  1. Price/ Book = 1.23
  2. Price/ Cash Flow = 14.70
  3. Price/ Sales = 1.59
  4. Price/Free cash flow= 4.30
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 3.65

Company: Cree Inc (CREE)

Basic Key ratios

Percentage Held by Insiders = 2.14

Growth

  1. Net Income ($mil) 12/2011 = 147
  2. Net Income ($mil) 12/2010 = 152
  3. Net Income ($mil) 12/2009 = 30
  4. 12months Net Income this Quarterly/12 months Net Income 4Q's ago = -69.03
  5. Quarterly Net Income this Quarterly/same Quarter year ago = -75.74
  1. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2011 = 303
  2. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2010 = 305
  3. EBITDA ($mil) 12/2009 = 138
  4. Net Income Reported Quarterlytr ($mil) = 12
  5. Annual Net Income this Yr/ Net Income last Yr = -3.8
  6. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2011 = 2.55
  7. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2010 = 2.39
  8. Cash Flow ($/share) 12/2009 = 1.59
  1. Sales ($mil) 12/2011 = 988
  2. Sales ($mil) 12/2010 = 867
  3. Sales ($mil) 12/2009 = 567
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 0.27
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 0.36
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = 0.49
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = 1.5
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = 1.4

Click to enlarge

Performance

  1. Percentage Change Price 52 Weeks Relative to S&P 500 = -27.81
  2. Next 3-5 Year Estimate EPS Growth rate = 25.6
  3. EPS Growth Quarterly(1)/Q(-3) = 121.05
  4. ROE 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 4.93
  5. ROE 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 4.93
  6. ROE 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 4.85
  7. Return on Investment 06/2011 = 3.34
  8. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 12/2011 = 0
  9. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 09/2011 = 0
  10. Debt/Total Cap 5 Year Average 06/2011 = 0
  1. Current Ratio 06/2011 = 7.41
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 8.81
  3. Quick Ratio = 9.13
  4. Cash Ratio = 8.23
  5. Interest Coverage Quarterly = N/A

Valuation

  1. Book Value Quarterly = 21.76
  2. Price/ Book = 1.42
  3. Price/ Cash Flow = 12.15
  4. Price/ Sales = 3.47
  5. EV/EBITDA 12 Mo = 9.6

ATP Oil & Gas Corp (ATPG)

Growth

  1. Net income for the past three years
  2. Net Income 2009 = $-49 million
  3. Net Income 2010 = $-338 million
  4. Net Income 2011 = $-192 million
  1. EBITDA 12/2011 = $493 million
  2. EBITDA 12/2010 = $79 million
  3. EBITDA 12/2009 = $107 million
  4. Net income Reported Quarterly = $8 million
  1. Total cash flow from operating activities
  2. 2008 = $546.97 million
  3. 2009 = $159.83 million
  4. 2010 = $-37.28 million
  5. 2011=$197.09 million
  1. Cash Flow 12/2011 = 3.54 $/share
  2. Cash Flow 12/2010 = 3.23 $/share
  3. Cash Flow 12/2009 = 2.3 $/share
  1. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2011 = -2.93
  2. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2010 = -1.21
  3. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2009 = -0.16
  4. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2008 = 2.98
  5. Annual EPS before NRI 12/2007 = 2.97

Click to enlarge

Performance

  1. Return on Assets = -3.61%
  2. Quarterly Revenue Growth = 25.4%
  3. Price to Sales = 0.50
  4. Price to Tangible Book = -2.60
  5. Price to Cash Flow = 3.90
  6. Price to Free Cash Flow = -1.10
  1. Current Ratio 09/2011 = 0.35
  2. Current Ratio 5 Year Average = 0.96
  3. Quick Ratio = 0.35
  4. Cash Ratio = 0.22
  5. Interest Coverage 09/2011 = 0.57

Notes

It would fall under the "average/middling category" for now, but it does have great long term potential.

Conclusion

Investors should wait for the market to let out some more steam before committing large amount of money to this market as they are still rather overbought. A pullback in the 7%-12% from the peak would qualify as a strong pullback.

Disclaimer

This list of stocks is meant to serve as a starting point. Please do not treat this as a buying list. It is imperative that you do your due diligence and then determine if any of the above plays meet with your risk tolerance levels. The Latin maxim caveat emptor applies - let the buyer beware.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: EPS, Price, EPS surprise charts obtained from zacks.com. A major portion of the historical data used in this article was obtained from zacks.com.