Innovation in Heavy Oil: India's Return to Economic Glory?

In the Hindu faith, the god Krishna is also known as Jagganath. In religious processions, a statue of Krishna is placed on a large wagon, and devotees sometimes throw themselves in front of the wagon in order to subject themselves to Krishna.

From this South Asian ritual the English word "juggernaut" was derived, bearing the meaning of an overwhelming, advancing force that will crush anything in front of it.

Despite its surging stock market and ever-increasing economic output, South Asia's key economy is too often overlooked in favor of China. Here's why energy investors can't afford to ignore Indian power.

In 2005, the World Bank reported that India was up to a 6.3% portion of the world's total GDP. That's less than the 30% or so that the subcontinent contributed in the first millennium A.D., but with nearly 10% annual economic growth in the past two years (second only to China's 11% pace), India is setting itself up for a return to economic glory.

A Helping Hand

India's national energy industry has high hopes too, with the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation leading the way. As Indian outsourcing companies like Infosys (NASDAQ:INFY) and Wipro (NYSE:WIT) are to the global service industry, ONGC is becoming to national petroleum companies.

In exchange for a major advance in the In-Situ Combustion [ISC] process of recovering heavy crude oil, the international arm of ONGC is expected to gain access to oil and gas blocks in Venezuela and Syria. ONGC claims to be the first company to successfully use ISC at a depth below 900 meters with this method of igniting, distilling, and bringing oil-bearing sludge to the surface.

Since Venezuela's Petroleos de Venezuela is hamstrung by President Hugo Chavez's contempt for oil majors and the leading petroleum science they bring to the field, and Syria is held in contempt by the United States and other western powers for their support for Hizbullah and relationship with Iran, both of these countries are in dire need of some assistance.

India is eager to provide a helping hand.

More Bountiful than Canada and Saudi Arabia

You see, Venezuela's Orinoco River basin is estimated to hold around 1.3 trillion barrels of super heavy oil, but less than a third of that is recoverable with today's technology.

Every Indian advance helps the South American OPEC member and its prickly president stir up a few million more barrels of $88 crude, with an ever-increasing rate of return as hydrocarbon technology gets cheaper and cheaper.

India has already proven their new ISC step forward in India's onshore Mehsana Asset, raising the recoverable oil total there from 30% to 40%.

ONGC operates in fifteen countries and is India's largest company. Its share price performance has been impressive too, with Mumbai-traded shares skyrocketing by over 240% since 2002! Prices shown below are in Indian rupees.

The Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations said in a report this week that oil consumption in India has jumped six-fold since 1982, and that by 2025 India could be importing 90% of its oil needs.

In India we see another major gear turning on the way to Peak Oil. Consumption is driving drills further into the ground, and there is ongoing innovation from Indian and other engineers acting on behalf of power-strained emerging economies.

Nevertheless, we wouldn't be cooking heavy oil if we weren't running short on the flowing stuff, and one day we'll run out of dirt to distill anyway.

The juggernaut just keeps rolling on.

Comments

[dkp:]

No ADR/GDR for foreigners to buy.

Govt cotrol on enery prices is politically motivated, shareholders interests come last.

2007 Oct 27 09:21 AM