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Executives

Wolfram Schmitt - Head of Investor Relations

Anthony di Iorio - Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

David Williams - Fox-Pitt Kelton

Jeremy Sigee - Citigroup

Michael Rohr- MainFirst Bank

Dieter Hein - Fairesearch

Philipp Zieschang - UBS

Jon Peace - Lehman Brothers

Stuart Graham - Merrill Lynch International

Kian Abouhossein - JP Morgan

Joachim Muller - Cheuvreux

Carsten Werle - Oppenheim Research

Stefan Stalmann - Dresdner Kleinwort

Georg Kanders - WestLB

Anke Reingen - Execution

Kinner Lakhani - ABN Amro

Deutsche Bank (DB) Q3 2007 Earnings Call October 31, 2007 4:00 AM ET

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentleman. Welcome to the Deutsche Bank analyst call. (Operator Instructions).

We will now join you in the analyst call with Dr. Wolfram Schmitt, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you.

Wolfram Schmitt

Yes. Thank you, Dan. This is Wolfram Schmitt. Good morning. It is a great pleasure for me to welcome all of you to our third quarter call. With me is Anthony di Iorio, who will perform this call and give a presentation and answer your questions.

As usual our disclosure today is supported by a variety of documents. The earnings release, a financial data supplement, the full interim report and a set of slides, which we will refer to.

All products, as you know, are carrying the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. In the interests of time, I will not read that out to you, but I trust that all of you would have read it before we start.

With that, Tony, I think you start your presentation and then we will go into the Q&A session right after that. Thank you. Tony?

Anthony di Iorio

Thank you, Wolfram, and good morning, everyone. As we announced this morning, our earnings in the third quarter of 2007 were EUR1.4 billion pre-tax, EUR1.6 billion after-tax and these numbers are disclosed on page three of our analyst presentation.

The quarter was characterized by a loss in trading positions in Investment Banking and in fact, an overall loss in the CB&S segment reflecting the impact of market conditions. We are pleased though, that the stable businesses of Global Transaction Bank, Asset and Wealth Management and the Private and Business Clients segment performed very well with earnings of EUR832 million for the quarter.

We also had strong contribution from Corporate Investments and a positive impact from tax credits and I will go through these in detail in just a minute. We are happy also to report that our Tier 1 ratio for the quarter was up. It was 8.8% and that, we believe, demonstrates our commitment to strong capital management.

Before I get into the details, I just want to reflect back on a disclosure we made on the 3rd of October regarding the anticipated results for the quarter and just compare those to where our results for the quarter are.

On the 3rd of October, we indicated that our expected pre-tax income would be EUR1.2 billion, and in fact, it came in at EUR1.4 billion. Our net income, we said, would exceed EUR1.4 billion, and it did at EUR1.6 billion. Our CB&S segment, at the time we forecasted would have a loss of between EUR250 million and EUR350 million, and the loss was EUR179 million.

Our sales and trading in three selected areas that we've highlighted, we anticipated would be in the range of a loss of EUR1.5 billion. In fact, the number is EUR1.560 billion. And finally, on leveraged finance, we said that we expected a write-down of up to EUR700 million in the quarter, and the write-down, in fact, was EUR603 million.

As we go through this presentation, we're also going to provide additional information on the exposures that we had at the beginning of the quarter and where we ended at the end of the quarter.

On page four, you can see what happened with our pre-tax, our ROEs, rather, 19%, which we said are anticipated, or our target was 25% over the cycle, and the 19% helped us, or contributed to a reduction, but, still for the nine months, we are at 33%. Our diluted earnings per share are at 11.13%.

If you turn to page five, we present the same statistics on a target definition basis, and this excludes some gains in our Corporate Investment segment principally, and as you can see from the chart, the target definition, pre-tax ROE for the quarter was 12% as compared to 25% for the third quarter last year. And our EPS, on a diluted basis, was EUR1.76 for the quarter compared to EUR2.11 for the prior quarter.

Turning to page seven, income before taxes, we report a decline of 19% from the third quarter last year, although the mix of these earnings is very different because of the circumstances in the third quarter. So, that's the EUR1.4 billion I commented earlier. On the full year basis, we are up on nine months 14% compared to the prior year at 7.3%.

Within these numbers, we had EUR606 million of gains in our Corporate Investment segment. EUR305 million of those relate to the sale of Industrial Holdings and then recent investments, the [Washer] Bank stake, the option on that stake, rather, which is a derivative that's managed or carried in Corporate Investments, and the final gain on the sale of our building in 60 Wall Street, New York, were EUR301 million.

In the third quarter of '06 the Corporate Investment sector contributed EUR216 million. So, while we had EUR600 million this quarter, that number is up from the EUR217 million from last year.

If you turn to the next page, eight, we disclose our net income, which is up 31% to EUR1.6 billion and in fact, higher than our pre-tax. And as we indicated in our earnings release, there were three principal reasons for that.

The first is the one-time impact of the change in German tax law on our provisions for deferred taxes, which had been accrued at the higher rate, so that was re-measured and adjusted this quarter, and that was a credit.

The second is the utilization of some capital losses, which in the United States can only apply against capital gains. We did have capital gains, principally on the sale of the 60 Wall Street building. And so, we were able to reflect those this quarter, the effect of those capital losses, and finally, through the resolution of some outstanding tax matters with the revenues. So as a result, we showed that increase.

On a guidance basis, the rate for this quarter probably, would have been, not probably, would have been below 30%, absent these items, and a lot of that is due to a reduction in our global rate mix, because many of the losses that we experienced in CB&S particularly were in the US, which is our highest tax jurisdiction. So, the rate would have been just under 30%.

Going forward for 2008, we reiterate our guidance of 33% to 35%. So, the tax rate this quarter, even before these charges, is lower than what we would anticipate it being as we go forward. As we indicated in some earlier calls, only about a quarter, 25% of our income, is earned in Germany. So, the impact of the reduction, apart from this one-time large benefit would be smaller in future quarters, going up.

If we turn to page nine, you can see what happened to our revenues, which are down 20%. Again, we'll talk about this in a little bit, but this is driven by the reduction in CIB, CB&S principally. The one thing that I would tell you in this quarter is that our regional diversification and the growing diversification has helped, so, the percentage of our revenues coming from Asia Pacific are up from the prior quarter. And then in Germany, we showed an increased revenue as well due to both the favorable economic conditions here as well as our expansion in PBC with the acquisitions.

The following page, page 10, shows the breakdown of our earnings, net revenues, rather, as to source. And on the left-hand side of the chart, you can see our stable businesses, GTB, Asset and Wealth Management and PBC, which together contributed EUR3.2 billion of revenues. CB&S, after those write-downs, was at just under EUR1.3 billion and the Corporate Investments is EUR654 million.

The Consolidation & Adjustments column, and I'll talk about this later, is impacted by a VAT recovery, which is a credit as well as recovery of some insurance claims we made on previously settled legal matters, and then offsetting that are mark-to-market versus accrual adjustments that we normally make to bring our management accounts inline with IFRS.

That said, if you turn to page 11, you can see the change in our revenues from the third quarter last year, down 20%, with the largest change being in CB&S, and then increases in our stable businesses, as well as in CI.

Turning to non-interest expenses, they're down 22%. On the comp side, they're down EUR1 billion from the prior year quarter of EUR2.7 billion, and more than that for the second quarter and that's driven by lower performance-related compensation, particularly in CB&S. And let me describe how we did not change methodology. We have applied consistent methodology throughout. The way we accrue bonuses is we calculate for each business the net income before bonus for that business on a year-to-date basis. And then we apply a formula which varies according to business and then record in the current quarter the difference between that result and what had been accrued in the prior period. So, in CB&S, we in effect the -- because the pre-tax income before bonus was down for the year, we took back some of the bonuses that had been accrued in the first three quarters.

When we get to the ratios, the cost ratios, and I'll refer to this again, we expect the number to go back to our run-rate for the first half of the year of about 44%, both in the fourth quarter and perhaps 43% to 44% for the full year. So that's the issue there. We did not change, or do not anticipate changing our distribution between cash and stock, and in fact, we applied the same assumption that we did in the first half of the year to the third quarter.

On the non-comp, we show EUR1.8 billion, which is flat with the third quarter last year, but down from the run-rate in the first half. And this is where those two adjustments that I alluded to earlier are booked. The EUR1.8 billion is EUR1.845 billion. We had a recovery of that based on a modified method of reclaim, which we have discussed with the tax authorities, and they have agreed, and that number was EUR138 million.

In addition to that, we had insurance recoveries on claims we had previously paid on legal exposures of EUR81 million. So, the number for the quarter would have been EUR2.064 billion absent those, and that is consistent with our run-rate.

We've spoken to our businesses and our infrastructure managers about the need to focus on this for the fourth quarter, and preliminary indications, based on forecasts, our third quarter reviews, indicate that they are focused on it.

On the year-to-date, our non-interest expenses are EUR15.9 billion, are up 8%, and I should mention that that is compared to a 10% increase in revenues. So, what this shows is that while our comp cost base is flexible to the extent we can with performance, that our non-comp requires constant diligence and monitoring, which we're all focused on. At the same time, we are expanding in some of our businesses, and so that involves both comp and non-comp. But that's the explanation of the return.

I talked about the cost income ratio. So, for the quarter, the overall ratio is 69%. And the year-to-date 68%, and if you were to look at the comp ratio, the 33% is a result of what I just described with regard to the performance comp.

And, as I said, that number will probably revert to the first half average in the fourth quarter assuming normalized business conditions. Our non-comp ratio is up from where it had been, and this demonstrates the effect of lower reported non-comp, were more than offset by the reduction in revenues.

If we turn to page 15, you will see the effect of our segments. CB&S, as indicated earlier, reported a loss of EUR179 million, which was below what we had announced on the preliminary figures of the 3rd of October, and our stable businesses, GTB, AWM and PBC show good increases, and we discussed both CI and the Consolidation & Adjustments.

The following page is presented just to have you focus on the improvements in our stable business, income before taxes, so that in the year 2006, they had generated EUR2.6 billion of pre-tax. And, so far this year, they've generated EUR2.4 billion, and we're very pleased with that result.

If we turn to CB&S, page 17, you can see the details of the EUR179 million, the loss I just alluded to, and we'll talk about in sales and trading, and in leveraged and corporate finance, the effects here. But I would like to focus just for a minute on the composition of the write-off that we announced of EUR1.560 billion. And we said that that was in three principal areas, most of it.

So, of the EUR1.6 billion, half of it, or approximately EUR730 million was in our designated prop strategies and that included both fixed income and debt. And the mix there was about 60% or EUR400 million or so in credit in the fixed income prop and about EUR300 million in the designated equity prop.

The second area was the CDO correlation, where the loss was about 30% of the EUR1.560 billion. So, that's about EUR465 million. The third was the RMBS business, which includes sub-prime, but also includes prime.

And, as we indicated, although, we're not exposed on an overall basis, because we've been net short the sub-prime, we did experience some basis risk effect in the third quarter, when the correlation between our short positions and what happened on the long positions, and we'll get into that in a minute, didn't react as they normally would.

In addition to that, we had losses of about 5% of the total or about EUR100 million in other strategies dealing with principally with fixed income. So, that's the composition of the EUR1.560 billion. I can tell you that throughout the period, we applied accounting and valuation principles consistent with what we have in previous periods, and we will continue to do that.

One additional comment, we included in this number, and it's in our sales and trading debt number, is EUR22 million of mark-to-market gain on our own debt. We applied the fair value option on a very selective basis, and that's why that number is substantially smaller than what you perhaps have seen from other disclosures.

Turning to sales and trading debt, the result here was a reduction of 71% in revenues, from EUR1.980 billion to EUR576 million. This indicated that the credit piece here, which includes both the prop as well as our CDO book, was down for the period, and the write-downs for the period were based on exposures, and let me just cites some numbers to you.

On the CDO book, at the beginning of the quarter, we had notional exposure, excluding RMBS, but including sub-prime. We have a separate book for RMBS, which consists of, principally, prime mortgages and securities. The exposure was just under EUR10 billion at the beginning of the quarter. Of that, we were net short just over EUR1 billion.

At the end of the period, we had managed that exposure down, and at September 30, the CDO correlation exposure in global credit trading was less than EUR1 billion, with the sub-prime exposure remaining at just over EUR1 billion net short within that number.

What we saw during the period is although we brought our net exposure down, because we were net short, at the end of August, when the United States Government announced support for the sub-prime position, the cash position values remained relatively unchanged. However, we had significant losses on our net short position, which is principally, it is the ABX.

Because of this dislocation, and because of the anticipated dislocations between the cash and derivative markets, we had tract a policy throughout the month of August of bringing those exposures down, looking to cut our net exposures.

We continue to manage the net longs down, and to reduce the basis risk, and although on a hedged basis, we remain net short, the sub-prime, there still is basis risk because there's no assurance that the trenches are going to move in a correlated way, which is what we saw at the end of August. So, that's what contributed to those effects.

In our mortgage back book, we also had losses, and some of this came from sub-prime, although, as I've said, in our total exposure as of the end of the quarter, we had a very small sub-prime long, and it was down in less than single digits. And we have throughout the quarter been looking to bring down the prime exposure as well. We did bring it down, and we about halved it, and we're still managing that at the current time.

The negatives in credit and the mortgage backed trading were offset by substantial performance in our FX and money markets business, where we saw customer trading revenues up, and I think the depth of our client relationships and the scope of our operation in these areas stood us very well there. We also saw improvements in our rates business, as we experienced, as we were the beneficiary of a flight to quality in that business.

With regard to sales and trading equities, we showed a reduction in net revenues from EUR690 million to EUR428 million, and a substantial portion of that was due to the losses that I referred to earlier in our designated proprietary book. In the third quarter last year, we were almost flat in designated prop, and this quarter, we had a loss. And as indicated in the chart, the losses were due to dislocations.

Again, our strategies were long short as well as net long equity in certain other strategies. We lightened up on our short positions, in the anticipation that the equity markets would decline. The equity markets improved, and so, we suffered some losses on our hedges in the proprietary book, but the derivative shorts we have in our Equity Derivatives business, which contribute to a reduction in the revenues in that business from the third quarter last year as well as from the second quarter.

Nevertheless, the Equity Derivatives business was helped with strong performance in our retail structure. So, the inherent business activities in many of our strategies were positive, and contributed in both equities and debt during the quarter. But, the volatility and the dislocations, particularly in expected and normalized correlations, led to losses both in our debt as well as in our equity trading.

Cash equities showed strong performance in non-Japan Asia and we're pleased to report that our Prime Services business showed a good improvement, and this is due to significant new mandates and to new segments that we've broken into.

If we turn next to origination and advisory, and I'd like to make some comments on our leveraged finance exposures before getting into the P&L. If you look at the table on page 20, we show the development of those commitments, and the analysis of the nature of those commitments in the second quarter.

On September 5, in a speech that Joe gave at a Handelsblatt conference, we disclosed the number at that time of loans to sponsors of EUR29 billion and you can see that in the October 31 numbers.

Now, let me put that into context. At the time that we disclosed that, there were discussions in the market, and other disclosures, about the size of the leveraged finance pipeline, and the numbers we saw, discussed loans to sponsors. So, to put out a number, that was consistent with what had been talked about in the market, we stated at that time the EUR29 billion.

However, as you can see from the chart, we also had other commitments, other loan commitments, and we had bond commitments to both sponsors and others, and that was a pipeline of EUR43.7 billion, with equity bridges of EUR750 million.

At September 30, we were at EUR41.4 billion of total commitments, and you can see the breakdown there. There were some reclassifications based on negotiations among the categories. So, that's why some of them decreased and some of them increased, and there's also an FX impact in sales. So, the reduction from EUR43.7 billion to EUR41.4 billion includes a series of things, as I said, including FX and sales.

Most of the commitments, though, were still on the books in one form or another, and as you can see to the right, the breakdown between our classification of that EUR41.4 billion between trading and loans held.

And, as you can see, less than 3%, I should say, of our total commitments are in loans held, which means that more than 97% will be treated as trading assets and mark-to-market, and I think it's important just to understand how we came up with this breakdown.

At the time a commitment is made, there is an intent provided by the business as to how much of that they expect to sell, and how much of it they expect to hold. The numbers that you see, the EUR1.3 billion, is the amount that the business indicated they wanted to hold, at the time they proposed the commitment.

What's important about that is that we did not move intent during the period from trading to loans held to avoid a markdown, because it was only the loans in trading that are subject to markdown. However, the loans held are subject to a general valuation calculate, or deduction per charge in our loan provision. So, the important point there is that we did not change our intent. We did not move assets into categories that would not be mark-to-market, but we marked as we had originally intended.

In terms of the EUR41 billion, EUR14 billion is funded, and EUR27 billion is un-funded, and if you look at the table on the bottom right of the page, you will see the expected funding period of the EUR27.5 billion by quarter. If you look to the left of the page, let me comment on one other thing. Our equity bridges at the time that we announced on 5th of September were EUR750 million and the latest number, although this changes day-to-day, because we're selling it, is now down to below EUR350 million. And there's been no material change in the commitments. So, that's the exposure.

During the quarter, we took write-downs of EUR603 million, against these commitments, and that brings our year-to-date write-downs, net of fees, at EUR715 million. We've indicated that in the second quarter, our write-downs were not insignificant. They were EUR112 million, and so the gross write-downs, including fees that we will not earn, were 3.6% of our trading commitments.

So that number relates to, if you go to the right, the EUR40.1 billion of the commitment that's in trading, because the loans held are not subject to write-down. They're accounted for at cost, at amortized cost, net of credit impairment.

With that said, let's turn to page 21, where you can see the origination and advisory effects. The numbers are down totally from total revenues from the third quarter last year by 77%, so from EUR642 million to EUR148 million.

The bulk of that is in our high yields, where we reported a net charge of EUR603 million. And as you can see, the origination on the left hand side was only down EUR120 million, and that is due to a couple of factors.

First of all, on our debt origination, we had some positive revenues that offset the EUR603 million, so that we were just under EUR300 million on investment grade and other debt revenues, excluding the write-downs. In addition to that, we had a very strong equity origination quarter, and you can see those numbers in the financial data supplement we put out, and likewise, record advisory revenues at EUR269 million.

So, the story here is we had the write-downs on the high yield. By the way, in calculating those write-downs, we had an extensive process, including an independent pricing review program by finance, in consultation with valuation specialists from KPMG as to methodology and benchmarks.

We looked at indexes. We looked at sales that were being made in the market by us as well as others, and we pretty much confirmed, based on that, the marks originally proposed by the business and by credit risk management.

On the advisory and equity origination, you can see on the right-hand side that we gained on equity origination in market share and dominance, the number one position, in EMEA. On advisory, our market share is up in the US. So, our pipeline remains robust, and we gained a number one position in international bonds in the investment grade sector.

If we turn now to our stable businesses, the first of which is GTB, and as you can see from page 22, we had a significant increase in income before taxes, 55% from EUR170 million to EUR263 million. This was a record third quarter revenue and profit for GTB, with strong performance in growth in our domestic custody business, as well as growth in our cash management businesses, where we believe we're benefiting from a flight to safety.

The business has performed very strongly in the nine months and as you can see from the table, pre-tax profits are EUR724 million. If you were to go back several years and look at the contribution from this business, you can see dramatic growth and that indicates the efforts that [Bernstein Muller] and Michael Cohrs and others have put into both strengthening the bottom line, but at the same time remaining focused on cost discipline.

Asset and Wealth Management has shown a substantial profit growth, with strong money inflows. So, our pre-tax is up 45% from EUR182 million to EUR265 million. The result looks like a decline from the second quarter. However, I remind you that the second quarter had in it the gain on the sale of some of our businesses in asset management, and so absent those, we would have shown an increase in the pre-tax.

For the year-to-date, EUR744 million and so there have been some very positive developments there. The results for the quarter have been helped by strong performance fees in asset management, in our retail asset management businesses here in Europe, particularly, and in RREEF.

Although, I would add that on a year-to-date basis, our performance fees in this business, and we've commented on these previously as being lumpy, are down by more than EUR100 million compared to where they were on a year-to-date basis last year.

PWM is enjoying the results from its investments last year. 2006 was a very difficult year for them. Pierre De-Weck, who runs that business, added substantial numbers of personnel, principally client-facing or client supporting and we're beginning to see the benefits here with both growth in invested assets, as well as growth in transaction revenues.

Net new money for the quarter in this segment was EUR13 billion and for the year-to-date it is EUR32 billion, so very strong results in asset and wealth management.

Private and business clients reported the best quarterly pre-tax results ever. Up 15% from the prior year, from EUR264 million to EUR304 million and this is due to strong revenues from our loan and deposit business, as well as an increase in our advisory businesses, so brokerage transactions.

Net new money in the segment was $4 billion for the quarter, and we've gotten 250,000 new customers. We started a marketing campaign, in effect a reintroduction of norisbank in the market and those costs are reflected here. There will continue to be marketing and promotion costs in the fourth quarter. We're beginning to see investments in our Polish businesses and PBC increasing, and we're continuing to invest in Asia.

Now let's turn to capital and risk management. Page 26, you can see what's happening to our impaired loans, which are down from EUR2.5 billion to EUR2.4 billion from June to September. Our coverage ratio on reserves is down slightly, but we don't think that's an indication yet of a trend. It's early, and if you can see the 64%, it's higher than any other quarter, but the second. So, it is an issue that we're monitoring.

The credit environment here in Germany has been positive, and if you turn to the next page you can see the effects on our credit provisions, which at EUR105 million are up from both the third quarter last year and second quarter this year, but a lot of that is due to a reduction in the releases in CIB. You can see them going from EUR42 million in the second quarter this year to EUR19 million, and from EUR27 million last year.

And on PBC, that number is increased, but included in this quarter is an adjustment in Berliner Bank leading to the full conversion from an HGB basis, German GAAP basis, of calculating the loan loss provisions, to an IFRS, and from the time we integrated Berliner Bank in terms of going through the records and establishing the basis, it took us several months to do, and so, there was an increase included in EUR124 million.

Absent that, we would have been down, and just slightly above the third quarter last year. And I remind you that the third quarter last year did not include either norisbank or Berliner Bank.

If we turn to the next page, our capital management, because of efforts to control and hedge risk on a robust basis, risk weighted assets were up just EUR3 billion from the second quarter. Our equity was up because of earnings and a hybrid issuance we did in the beginning of July. And as a result, our Tier 1 ratio, we're happy to report, is up to 8.8%, and that is very important for us because it not only indicates the result of a tight capital management, but it's also important for counterparts, rating agencies and others, to see how focused we are on this number.

One issue I'd like to comment on, before going on to the other pages, is our liquidity. At the end of the second quarter call, I was asked a question about, did we experience any funding problems, and my answer was that I did not know of any. Maybe I should have been more explicit or articulate, because some observers misunderstood that for a fallback from our stated goal of transparency.

We did not have any funding problems. Funding is managed by Hugo Banziger as part of risk, so he's the Board member responsible for it. And his efforts, and those of Chris Whitman, our Group Treasurer, were very successful during the quarter. And as a result, we consistently enjoyed excellent access to liquidity throughout the quarter.

Our efforts during the quarter were to lengthen out and latter out maturities, to reduce dependence on overnight funding. And so, we did do some term funding, and locked in funding, which we thought was prudent to do, and, in fact, in some cases, Chris, working with our Global Markets colleagues, were able to tap into certain segments of the term market that had been dormant, in effect reopening those.

So, we're very satisfied with the way liquidity has been managed. We continue to have easy access or not easy access, but access, excellent access. And I should comment on one other thing. As a bank with a large and stable deposit base, our funding risk is also helped in terms of that characteristic.

Turning to page 29, let's talk a little bit about the future, and we don't make forward-looking statements. But what we'd like to do, as Joe Ackermann said in a recent speech, we reaffirm our commitment to our stated strategy.

He indicated in the shareholder letter that accompanied the interim report today that we stay the course, although as he indicated, we may make some adjustments in individual business lines, to refocus resources toward areas with the greatest growth potential.

So the phase 3 agenda remains intact, and if you turn to the last page of the prepared presentation, page 30, we'd also like to reiterate what Joe said on the 3rd of October, that we reaffirm our commitment to our previously stated financial targets, which include, assuming market conditions are normal for our profit targets for 2008.

Our stable businesses have all confirmed commitments to their targets, although we believe it will be a challenge for PWM, as they do. But they're still committed and working towards it. And, as you see from the results, the stable businesses are making good progress toward those goals.

Performance in CB&S going forward will be linked to market conditions, and it's therefore very difficult to predict. Nevertheless, and we have spoken to leaders in this business over the last week, they remain positive that market conditions are beginning to show signs of normalizing, although that is not a prediction. But they're heartened, and remain focused on these goals.

Some of you might be interested on, how the fourth quarter has started? And again, we mentioned in the shareholder letter that October has started out very positively, and what I'd also like to add is that some of the businesses that had the biggest challenges in the third quarter are credit trading businesses, and our designated prop businesses have contributed, as well as others, to this positive start.

However, as I said on the second quarter call, it is early in the quarter, and so, we would like to caution you not to extrapolate any positive sentiment we have now, although, we are positive overall to forecast or as a forecast of fourth quarter results.

With that, I will end my prepared remarks and open it up for questions. Thank you.

Wolfram Schmitt

Thanks, Tony. Ben?

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions). The first question is from Mr. David Williams of Fox-Pitt Kelton. Please go ahead, Mr. Williams.

David Williams - Fox-Pitt Kelton

Hello. Good morning. It's David Williams here from Fox-Pitt Kelton. Obviously, with regard to your comments just at the end about extrapolating into the rest of the quarter, UBS, obviously, yesterday was saying October got off to a good start, but they do expect further write-downs in the business in the investment bank.

I just want to ask, is there anything out there at the moment that makes you think you may have to take further write-downs on any of your sort of positions really in any of the credit markets or otherwise? That would be the first question.

And the second question would be, have you got a changed view on prop trading? Obviously, in the quarter it was difficult, probably, I guess on the comp driven models and positions and that caused some of the losses. Are you scaling back those positions and winding down some of your prop activities? Or, do you just see the quarter as an aberration, and would expect ongoing to have some contribution from those prop models as they were previously delivered?

Anthony di Iorio

David, as far as fourth quarter write-downs, we monitor positions on a daily basis. We look at the markets. We have marked both our trading positions and the leverage finance positions as realistically as we could at the end of September.

We believe that those are good marks. Experience since has shown us that they probably are. But I don't know -- there's nothing we anticipate, because, if we had anticipated it, we probably should have reported them at the end of September.

So, our marks are based on current market conditions, which could change. As I indicated, although, we're net short, for example, on the sub-prime, there is basis risk. And what we saw at the end of August with the announcement, we could see other aberrations in that regard.

So at this point, if we knew of anything, we probably would have recorded it. So, but that doesn't mean that there won't be based on market or changes in market conditions.

As far as prop trading, we look at our strategies on a regular basis. I don't think, I think that there are some strategies, one that we've already shut down on designated prop. We're looking at our positioning.

Our guys look at the markets and trends, and the best information that they have, and I think from time-to-time, those strategies change. But a lot of that, apart from the change I mentioned just a minute ago, is based on market conditions.

I would add that on a year-to-date basis, we are showing positive results in both equity prop, which is down from the prior year nine months, but still positive this year, despite these write-downs, and designated equity prop. And in designated fixed income, we are also showing a year-to-date profit.

David Williams - Fox-Pitt Kelton

That's great. Thank you.

Wolfram Schmitt

Thanks, David. Next please.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Jeremy Sigee of Citigroup. Please go ahead, sir.

Jeremy Sigee - Citigroup

Good morning. Thank you very much. Could I continue, a little bit, the discussion, since you've given it, about how 4Q has started? Because it seems that a number of areas, particularly in the credit business, are still not functioning normally at the moment. Markets are still pretty much closed. So, I just wondered, if you could talk about that? And: which areas you're most concerned about looking ahead into early next year as well?

Anthony di Iorio

In the credit markets, as I indicated, some of the positive results so far have come from those areas that had big challenges in the third quarter. And that would include credit trading. We've taken down our risk significantly. We are looking at opportunities all the time. And, so far, I don't know that I would read the market in any way, but the only thing I can report is that the results have been positive.

Jeremy Sigee - Citigroup

Okay. And, can I ask a second question on a different subject? Just looking at your share buybacks, they've obviously been scaled back. The buybacks that are taking place, are these intended for share-based compensation schemes or cancellation? Or, a mixture of the two?

Anthony di Iorio

It's probably a little bit of both, but the principle at this time during the year except to fund commitments to new hires, the share buybacks would principally be as part of our share buyback program. Our biggest share buybacks would obviously come in anticipation of hedging the grant, which will be made next February. So, it's a mixture of both, although I would probably lean towards a larger component being the share buyback program.

Jeremy Sigee - Citigroup

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Michael Rohr of MainFirst Bank. Please go ahead sir.

Michael Rohr- MainFirst Bank

Yes. Hi. Good morning. It's Michael Rohr from MainFirst. Just, two questions remaining. First of all on the remaining exposure, you've given us the details on LBO and CDO exposure. However, maybe I've missed that can you clarify the exposure on the residential mortgage backed securities a bit more? And: how this evolved during the quarter? And, especially: what write-off rate you took there?

And secondly a question on the staff costs especially on the personnel expenses. We've seen that they fell off pretty quickly and I just wonder, given the sharp fall-off: whether there's anything special in there apart from your formula that you usually use? Thank you.

Anthony di Iorio

Michael, on the residential mortgage exposures, what's left on our books on the long side is almost all prime. As I indicated, the sub prime is a very small component. It's in decimals. And, as far as the prime, we've taken it down about to half of where it was at the beginning of the quarter and it's in the high single digits currently. Although we're moving this position, we're buying, selling, and I don't want to get into too much, this is a very actively, as all of our positions are, managed book. So, I'd prefer not to go beyond that, because there are competitive issues here.

Michael Rohr- MainFirst Bank

Sure.

Anthony di Iorio

As far as staff costs are concerned, as I said the third quarter was driven -- if you look at the accrual rates, there are higher accrual rates in certain businesses than others. So, where our accruals came down because of the year-to-date adjustments, those were the higher effects, higher percentages. That said, we anticipate the fourth quarter to be back to our normalized, but let me add a couple of things.

First, there is no bonus per se on the corporate investments P&L. So, because of the size of that in the current quarter you can't just look at ratios and that's why you have to look at absolute monetary trends.

In addition to that, we did benefit on the bonus accrual for one with the weakening of the dollar. The net effect was less than 100 million as I remember, but, nevertheless, that had an effect. So, depending on what happens to currencies, depending on what happens to performance, we're going to see whatever the fourth quarter bonuses are.

We're not storing up bonuses to record them. We've applied the formulas consistently throughout the year. And that's the effect.

Michael Rohr- MainFirst Bank

Alright. Thanks very much.

Anthony di Iorio

You're welcome Michael. Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Dieter Hein of Fairesearch GMBH. Please go ahead sir.

Dieter Hein - Fairesearch

Yes. Good morning. I would like to ask two or three questions. First, I'm very interested on your personal opinion, Tony, regarding: how reliable are the evaluation adjustments on the global investment banks in the third quarter? Is it possible to compare, for example, the charges Goldman Sachs made with the charges of Merrill Lynch, or with Deutsche Bank, in your point of view? And: do you think we've got from the big auditor companies, together with the accountants from the big banking companies, together with the watchdogs like SEC, general standards to evaluate all these items?

And, the question regarding your evaluation adjustment of EUR2.2 billion: Where did you use a mark-to-market evaluation and where mark-to-model evaluation? Maybe you could break up in this your EUR2.2 billion? Thanks.

Anthony di Iorio

Okay. I don't know that I'd venture a personal opinion, but the fact that I'm the CFO and we're putting out the numbers. Dieter, we would not have published these numbers if we were not comfortable with the valuations.

Now that said, in certain parts of our balance sheet there is judgment, because you can't go out and find marks. However, in applying that judgment we have done it consistently with the way we've done it in the past. There has been independent review away from the businesses by finance and market risk management.

We discussed this in our second quarter call as to our practices and policies. We continued that fully. So, we believe that our evaluations are correct based on market conditions at the end of September.

With regard to the auditors, we've had extensive discussions with a number of accounting firms to help us interpret, principally with KPMG, but we have engaged in discussions with others as to how to apply valuation methods.

The accountants published a report, a white paper in the third quarter. Three of them in fact, one of them on valuations, second on accounting for leverage finance commitments and a third on accounting for asset-backed commercial paper conduits. In all three we compared what was said in those papers to what we were doing. And we found that we were totally consistent.

So, concerning the methodologies that we've used, which is not the only question you've asked, they are consistent with the best thinking and the guidance provided by the accountants. With regard to where we've used judgment for mark-to-model versus mark-to-market, we would wish that there would be more observable marks in the market.

That said, if you're at the leading edge in terms -- with other firms, in terms of product development and activities, it is sometimes difficult to find observable marks. We are preparing to disclose our level one, level two, level three data at the end of the year and I indicated this at the other quarter. And, although we're not ready at this point to disclose actual numbers, I can tell you, based on the analysis that we have done in preparation for the disclosure at the end of the year, our level three assets and liabilities are directionally proportionate in the absolute with where the other U.S. firms have disclosed. And the ones we've seen so far are the August quarter ends, because we've seen that data in their 10Qs. So, on an absolute level:

When we start publishing this number we're going to look a lot better as a percentage of assets at fair value. And the reason for that is that IFRS requires a gross-up of certain trading assets, derivatives and others, liabilities that would be netted under U.S. GAAP.

So, the base against which the percentages will be calculated are a much higher base, therefore the percentage is a lot smaller. And I've mentioned and that's why I think we've got to focus and we should all focus on the absolute number. But it is, directionally, the same in absolute terms. But we'll deal with that at the end of the year.

Wolfram Schmitt

Okay, Dieter?

Dieter Hein - Fairesearch

Yes.

Wolfram Schmitt

Can I make a quick announcement? I'm hearing from the moderator about the long queue of attendees who would like to raise a question. May I suggest, ask, if everybody limits to one question as we want to serve everybody. Thank you. Let's go on.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Philipp Zieschang of UBS. Please go ahead sir.

Philipp Zieschang - UBS

Morning. You've mentioned that actually you were about to reallocate some resources within the investment bank. Could you just comment in terms of what areas you perceive to show the highest structured growth rates going forward? Because, obviously, structured credit, where you probably had a profit contribution of 25% to the group, somewhat, in terms of growth engine somewhat questioned. So, about your future growth pockets within the (inaudible) great if you could just comment on that. Thanks.

Anthony di Iorio

Thank you, Philipp. We're still looking at things and I think it's premature, and certainly I shouldn't make that announcement here. But we are studying where we are allocating capital, the returns we're making on the capital, what the markets are telling us and where opportunities are. We're a global firm. We're interested in expanding our global platform and we're interested in renewing our product array and those are the principles underlying this review. And it's something we do all the time. If we weren't doing it now, after the third quarter, we would obviously be remiss. But, I think, it's premature Philipp, but you'll see in future quarters where those changes are.

Philipp Zieschang - UBS

Thanks.

Anthony di Iorio

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Jon Peace of Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead sir.

Jon Peace - Lehman Brothers

Good morning. I had a question on capital management. We heard from UBS yesterday that Basel II was going to cost them, maybe, around 50 basis points. So, I just wondered: what your current thinking was with respect to Basel II? And, in that context, you've obviously given us a plan to raise your dividend payout. With Basel II on the horizon, and after a tough year: do we still expect the payout to rise from the current mid-30s in 2007? Or: is it going to take a little bit longer to reach the goal of a 50% payout? Thanks.

Anthony di Iorio

Jon, as far as Basel II, we're still working through this and we're still working with the regulators in terms of model approval. So, we're not ready, although I think we have given numbers in the past. We expect, based on our current risk profile and expectation, that we will apply the advanced approach, which we're hopeful of and we're working towards that, and there's nothing to indicate that we won't. We see our Tier 1 ratio being somewhere over nine, maybe as far as the mid-nines. So, if you use nine point plus, I think, you'd probably have a good sense. But again, I don't want to state a number that we're not comfortable on the footing.

As far as the dividend is concerned, we have already accrued, or set aside as part of our Tier 1 capital, it's not an accounting accrual, but it's a calculation accrual, a dividend of approximately EUR4.12. So our Tier 1 ratio is based on a capital that at 37% of our net income assumes or as a charge in there for a dividend equivalent of EUR4.12. That compares to EUR4.00 for last year.

The ultimate decision on dividends is a recommendation by the Supervisory Board to the Annual General Meeting, so I would not assume or presume to state what it's going to be. We have our goal to 50%. We will work towards that goal, but, obviously, we would also have to reflect our capital management, our opportunities for growth as well and what our earnings potential is. But we're very encouraged by where we are, the dividend has come up significantly. But that's where we are.

Jon Peace - Lehman Brothers

Great! Thanks.

Anthony di Iorio

You're welcome Jon.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Stuart Graham of Merrill Lynch International. Please go ahead sir.

Stuart Graham - Merrill Lynch International

Hi. Firstly, thanks for the extra disclosure, that's very useful. I just wanted to ask on the CDO exposure, which you said you managed down from 10 billion to 1 billion. Could you give me some color on: how you achieved that? Which is obviously a very good performance over Q3, please.

Anthony di Iorio

Stuart, a lot of that came -- none of it was moved and you haven't implied that, but none of it was moved out of trading into other categories of the balance sheet. So, in case anyone has any thoughts of that, it came from sales and closing down derivative positions. And so it was just taking down our risk.

Stuart Graham - Merrill Lynch International

So: these were genuine sales? It wasn't that you were hedging positions? You actually managed to sell these positions down?

Anthony di Iorio

That's correct, yeah. We took down some strategies more than others considerably, but that's correct.

Stuart Graham - Merrill Lynch International

In that context the 465 million hit you talked on correlation trading seems quite low. 465 on shifting 9 billion is only like a 5% haircut and I wouldn't have thought that people would have been buying these assets at only a 5% haircut in Q3. Or: am I missing something?

Anthony di Iorio

Some of the confidence we have in our marks is based on the fact that we did see realization on sales or closing down derivative positions. So, we were able to use that experience to look at our verification. I don't want to start talking about individual trades and certainly I don't have in front of me all the positions, so whether there has been some additional hedging, but what I do know, in some of the positions, is that we genuinely took down through sales.

Stuart Graham - Merrill Lynch International

Okay. Can I just squeeze one question on generally in structured finance? Your exposure to US monolines, if you could just comment on: how bigger it is? Is that a significant issue for you outside of CDO space, more generally in structured finance business?

Anthony di Iorio

I don't think we want to talk about the individual or specific exposures. We monitor them carefully. I think in the aggregate they're not, relative to the size of our loan book or even our, so some of these our derivative positions to our trading assets are not significant, but we are monitoring what's happening in that sector very carefully.

If things do change we certainly will react in terms of both protecting our risk, as well as what we record in the books. But, the total exposure is not significant or material relative to our overall exposure.

Stuart Graham - Merrill Lynch International

Okay great! Thanks for the disclosure. Thank you.

Wolfram Schmitt

Thanks Stuart. Next please?

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Kian Abouhossein of JP Morgan. Please go ahead sir.

Kian Abouhossein - JP Morgan

Yes, hi. I have a question regarding your balance sheet. It's the first time that we're seeing over eight quarters you're actually reducing your total assets. And I was wondering: if this is a trend that will continue within the group considering your funding costs on inter-bank and term that has gone up significantly?

And in addition, I'm just trying to understand: if you are thinking about reducing your financial assets at fair value which are materially higher even on a US GAAP adjusted basis to your peers? Do you see any change in your overall balance sheet asset size over the next year or so?

Anthony di Iorio

Kian, I would not say that we don't reflect on the absolute size of the balance sheet, but our principal focus is on risk. And so, risk-weighted assets are how we manage the balance sheet size. Certainly, we do look at absolute balance sheet. I would not read anything; we've taken down some risk, as we talked about in this call. But, I would not see any strategic move or strategic implication from whether or not the trend is up or down.

As far as financial assets at fair value: Fair value has a discipline and requires a discipline. Now, that's not the question you asked. So, we're not troubled at all that a good part of our balance sheet is in fair value, because each morning we wake up and we find out what happened the day before and we're able to test those marks on a regular basis and so, understanding: where we are? And: what risks we have? Is very important.

If your question is: is our risk appetite reduced? And: are we going to take down our risk positions? I think we see opportunities in the markets and, as we see opportunities and we think a well-capitalized bank that has good funding sources and stable sources of funding is in a very strong position to take advantage of opportunities as they come up. So, we certainly will look at risk prudently.

I'm just looking at the balance sheet size and I draw your attention to one category that maybe is driving or is creating some volatility in the effect and that's other assets and other liabilities. And in fact our balance sheet is going up instead of down. But: maybe you were talking about financial assets? I don't know which, because the balance sheet is going up. It's down from the second quarter, but if you look at where that…

Kian Abouhossein - JP Morgan

Yeah, sorry, from the second quarter, that's what I mean. So, it's been growing fourth...

Anthony di Iorio

If you look, other assets, financial assets are down marginally.

Kian Abouhossein - JP Morgan

Yeah.

Anthony di Iorio

Other assets are down from EUR252 billion to EUR215 billion. The biggest item in there is trade-based settlement date receivables. And that's going to move the same thing by the way on other liabilities. It's trade-based settlement date liability.

So, depending on trading activity, depending on where settlements are and periods, settlement periods, that number is going to move up and down. I hope that answers your question.

Kian Abouhossein - JP Morgan

And: if I may follow-up on that? Is there any drive by local regulators to look more at leverage ratios rather than just Tier 1? Do you get any demand from local regulator to look at that ratio a bit more?

Anthony di Iorio

We have not heard of one, we don't know of any, Kian. They might be thinking about it. But it's the risk inherent because if someone had a very large book of gilts and bunds and US governments and someone else had a smaller balance sheet and higher gearing ratio, better gearing ratio, I'm sorry, higher gearing ratio or capital ratio. I don't know what that would tell you. I think you've got to look at the risk and, as far as we know, that's what the regulators are focused on.

Kian Abouhossein - JP Morgan

Okay. Thanks.

Wolfram Schmitt

Next please?

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Joachim Muller of Cheuvreux. Please go ahead sir.

Joachim Muller - Cheuvreux

Yeah. Hi, it's Joachim Muller. Just a technical question on your leverage finance book: The EUR40 billion that you have in your trading book, at what stage, let's assume it will be difficult to sell down most of that book: at what stage would they become sort of like hedge maturity and you would have to reclassify them?

And: what kind of impact would that have on your risk-weighted assets weighting and Tier 1 impact? Maybe you can comment on that a bit?

Anthony di Iorio

Yes. Joachim, once we've classified them as trading they will stay in trading. So, the commitment here is in trading. We looked at, as I said earlier, where the intent was. Based on that intent, we have classified them.

If they are classified as trading under IFRS, we don't have the latitude of even changing them, unless there was a mistake in the classification. Under US GAAP there may be some latitude. So, we will not change those.

Joachim Muller - Cheuvreux

So, even if there was no possibility, because of the market conditions, to sell them?

Anthony di Iorio

We would still have to keep them in trading as far as we understand and they would still be mark-to-market. Now, as far as regulatory capital is concerned, they could stay in the trading book as trading assets I believe for 180 days from the time that they're funded.

After that 180 days they would be classified for regulatory purposes as banking book assets and therefore take a higher capital charge. So, in terms of reported balance sheet, there won't be a change. As far as regulatory treatment, if they're here for longer than 180 days there will be a change.

Joachim Muller - Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you.

Anthony di Iorio

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question is from Luca Orsini of One Investments. Please go ahead. Luca Orsini, please go ahead and ask your question.

Wolfram Schmitt

Probably gone. Shall we move on?

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Carsten Werle of Oppenheim Research. Please go ahead sir.

Carsten Werle - Oppenheim Research

Yeah, hi. Carsten Werle, Oppenheim. Good morning. In the October performance update that you gave, you provided us with number of EUR32 billion for Deutsche Bank-sponsored ABCP conduits. Is this number still correct? And, am I right to assume that the major part of this EUR32 billion is on your balance sheet, not off balance sheet? And, perhaps, for those parts which are off balance sheet; you could still give us some indication which is dollar denominated assets and what's in euro?

Anthony di Iorio

Yeah. The EUR32 billion was the number at September 30th. The latest report I received would indicate that, that number if it has moved has not moved materially. So, assume it's still EUR32 billion. Of that EUR27 billion is consolidated on our balance sheet and if you look at the interim report, it's included in a category called, “It's Available for Sale”. And part of it is in “Available for Sale” and part of it is in “Loans”. So the loan portion of that is about EUR15 billion.

The “Available for Sale” portion is approximately EUR11 billion, so there's some rounding there, but that's the EUR27 billion. Five is not on our balance sheet. The five is neither in dollars nor in euros. I believe it's in Australian dollars. Probably, it's in Australia. And the reason we don't consolidate it is that under the accounting rules we have no direct exposure, the assets would revert to the seller upon default.

We should talk about why we have these sponsored conduits. The intent of these is to provide access to the commercial paper market to customers who generate loans of their own. And these are normally commercial companies, but it could be some financial companies, who want access to the commercial paper markets.

And, as part of our business, we provide them that access. But, because of the terms of the agreement, we need to consolidate them. So, the number of EUR32 billion is there and I hope the numbers I've given you have helped you.

Carsten Werle - Oppenheim Research

Yeah. Many thanks.

Anthony di Iorio

You're welcome.

Wolfram Schmitt

Thanks Carsten.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Stefan Stalmann of Dresdner Kleinwort. Please go ahead sir.

Stefan Stalmann - Dresdner Kleinwort

Yes. Good morning everyone. I have one question please regarding the development of your risk-weighted assets and in particular the fact that it does not seem to show any sign of growing counter-party risks from your derivative book.

I'm actually quite puzzled to see that your derivative marks during the quarter have hardly risen despite the substantial jump in volatilities across the board. Could you explain why the derivative marks on mark-to-market values have hardly risen? And, why there has been no reflection of possibly rising counter-party risks on your derivative book in your risk-weighted assets?

Has there been any change in the way that you account for these positions? Or how you measure the risk weighting coming out of that? Thank you very much.

Anthony di Iorio

Yeah. Stefan, there has been no change in the way we account for Derivatives and the marks are falling through as they have, depending on levels, from quarter-to-quarter.

The risk-weighted assets went up just about EUR3.5 billion and if you are interested in the breakdown of that I can give it to you. And there was an FX benefit. Derivative component is up about double that, so somewhere in the 7 billion range. The derivative component of risk-weighted assets.

Loans were down undrawn commitments are about flat. Other commitments are up by about 4.5 billion, 4.4 billion and the FX had about just over 6 billion positive, so it reduced the risk-weighted assets.

So, if you would look at it, the FX benefit from the weakening dollar, for example, pretty much offset the increase in the derivatives. And so, what was left came from other assets and liabilities including contingent assets and other securities and assets.

Wolfram Schmitt

Okay, Stefan?

Stefan Stalmann - Dresdner Kleinwort

Thank you.

Wolfram Schmitt

Ladies and gentlemen, in the interests of time I suggest we'll take three more attendees with questions.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Georg Kanders of WestLB. Please go ahead sir.

Georg Kanders - WestLB

As you have announced some restructuring; do we have to assume that there will be a significant restructuring cost in Q4?

Anthony di Iorio

We say, we've announced restructuring, this was in the US, one business MortgageIT we had some restructuring. We're not anticipating any restructuring program. We're still looking at plans as to refocusing, but, at this point, we're not anticipating, we're not planning or restructuring. But, plans aren't done yet and that doesn't preclude that there won't be, but at the current time and -- we don't anticipate.

Wolfram Schmitt

Georg, I think it's important to say, we said it [and we showed] as well that we may make some adjustments in order to refocus some resources. We haven't mentioned restructuring and, therefore, we don't mention restructuring costs. Okay?

Georg Kanders - WestLB

Okay.

Wolfram Schmitt

Thank you. Next please.

Operator

The next question is from Mrs. Anke Reingen of Execution. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Anke Reingen - Execution

Yes. Anke Reingen, Execution. Just one question on the diluted number of shares; we have seen ongoing decline. Is this a trend we should expect to continue? And: is this actually a real decline in the number of diluted shares? Or, will we see those shares basically working back to higher levels at some point? Thank you.

Anthony di Iorio

I don't think I'd, Anke, view that as a trend. There're some technical issues for the reduction. One of those has to do with the restructuring of some hedges on shares with regard to the REU program. And then other parts are just due to both the exercise of options by our employees, which moves from diluted to -- if you look at the shares issued in the third quarter went up and part of that is just a shift. So, there is no trend I'd read into that.

Anke Reingen - Execution

Thank you

Wolfram Schmitt

Next please.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Kinner Lakhani of ABN Amro. Please go ahead sir.

Kinner Lakhani - ABN Amro

Yes. Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to focus on the 2008 target, particularly in relation to corporate banking and securities. You do talk about confirming your target subject to normal conditions. So, my question is what are normal conditions for the fixed income or the debt sales on trading revenues? Are you thinking more 2006, '05, '04?

And how do you contextualize this? Particularly with regard to the intellectual capital businesses where Deutsche Bank is overweight, but where in certain areas it's likely that activity will take a long time to come back to recent levels?

Anthony di Iorio

Again Kinner, I don't know that I'm qualified to state, but let me tell you what I think normal market conditions are. And I don't think I'd go back and look at any one period, because what is normal might be different in the future. I would look at two issues.

The principal issue is liquidity. And so for conditions to be normal there has to be liquidity, meaning from investors, buyers, that returns to the market. And we're beginning to see some signs of that, although it is early. And I think we would want more time and want to see that develop further before declaring victory on that regard.

The second is volatility. Now volatility in a way helps us, but if things perform in a more orderly way that would also help us. So, it's when the market has the feeling that risk is appropriately priced, when that happens.

And as I said, because liquidity is returning, at least there is some indications that certainly could be interpreted as people believing prices are reflecting risk reward. And we would see it where there's neither a boom nor a bust.

So, maybe that doesn't answer your question, but, as I said at the beginning, I don't know that I could -- or am qualified to define that and it may be different tomorrow from where it was yesterday. Kinner?

Kinner Lakhani - ABN Amro

Thank you.

Anthony di Iorio

Thanks.

Wolfram Schmitt

With that we would like to close our call over one and a half hours into the call. Thanks everybody. If we might have cut somebody short, please come back to the Investor Relations team. We are more than happy to answer any questions.

Anthony di Iorio

Thank you very much.

Wolfram Schmitt

Thank you and goodbye.

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